저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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Fed 주도 거품 주장은 과장이며 이번 랠리는 실질적이라는 결론. 연준 발 랠리 논란: 2019년 7월 10일 S&P500 장중 3000 돌파 신고가 후, 파월 의장의 경기 둔화 언급과 금리 인하 기대가 랠리를 촉발했다고 설명. 주장 1: 주식은 현금화 가능한 실물 자산이며 은행에서 출처를 묻지 않는다는 점을 들어 '이긴 돈은 진짜 돈'이라고 강조. 주장 2: 해외 자금 유입은 달러 강세 자산 선호 때문이며 강한 통화는 문제가 아니라고 봄. 주장 3: 저인플레이션과 낮은 채권 수익률로 인해 주식(특히 배당 및 성장 종목)이 유일한 선택지라고 판단. 주장 4: 연준의 금리 인하는 경제 성장을 돕는 행동이므로 주식 상승이 부자연스럽지 않다고 봄. 주장 5: 장기적으로는 연준보다 우량 기업 선택이 수익을 좌우한다고 강조. 엔비디아 등 상위 10개 종목은 기술력의 결과라고 평가. 개별 종목: 스타우드 프로퍼티(STWD) 매수 긍정적(배당 8%, 안전하다고 평가). 델타항공은 긍정적이나 조정 가능성 언급. 노키아는 2류 기업으로 부정적 평가, 화웨이 경쟁 우위 언급. 페덱스 언급. 리스크: 중국과의 갈등, 경기 둔화 가능성 언급. 2019년 IPO 종목 중 2년간 2000% 상승 종목을 다음 방송에서 공개 예고. 출연자 전망: 시장 랠리는 실질적이며 거품 우려는 과도하다는 낙관적 입장.
다듬은 글
momen creamer welcome to mad money welcome to creme Erica I'm gonna make friends trying to make you some money my job it's not just entertain you but to educate you teach you explain it all so call me at one eight hundred seven or three CBC or tweet me at Jim Cramer that's it okay I have had enough right I keep hearing at today's rally dal gating seventy seven points as a rising point four or five percent and I was like invisible it severs it's somehow phony then it's engineer by the Federal Reserve which means everything will end in tears look we definitely got a boost from the Fed but the idea that this makes the whole move fake that's ridiculous when a day when the S&P briefly broke out above three thousand hitting a new all-time high I want to put all of this Fed mandated bubble talk to bed so yes it's sure that the averages were looking to it's really average walking down before Jerome Powell our competent Fed chief gave some dollars testimony to Congress about how our economy is not in great shape Powell admitted that business is slowing and the terrorists could slow it even more he's right although he probably should have mentioned that it's December rate hike also played a role Powell's speech this answers the question has made it clear that the Fed will cut rates perhaps even as soon as this month if the economy keeps deteriorating and it sure sounds like he expected to continue to deteriorate the prospect of a rate cut is what ignited the market okay today but as soon as we got going you heard the same story from so many commentators and money managers they say it's all one big hot air balloon practically a hydrogen-filled zeppelin that's bound to crash somewhere in Lakehurst New Jersey just like it's the Hindenburg I said the only things for a hot air are those gas bag Talking Heads first of all what the Fed giveth the big take away we saw us in the fourth quarter when Powell created a bear market out of whole cloth by tightening too aggressively he thought the economy was still accelerating really it was already starting to slow down look at the charts by almost single-handedly crashed the market because he made bad monetary policy now at the time I was screaming my darn head off warning him to change course but no one said this is a bogus to climb it is caused by the Fed so you can wait it out eventually everything will turn out okay these commentators will act like all is well with the universe when the feds hawkish and when the feds dovish they pretend it's an anomaly or worse like it's fine for Pao to kill the economy but it's a problem for him to try to resurrect it that seems nuts to me where is it written that it's wrong for the Federal Reserve to do things that help the economy and eventually help the stock market where more importantly let me say this one of the few benefits of aging is wisdom I've been investing since the sp500 was at 87 not 1987 but 87 the price remember Teta 3000 I've seen this process play out with the stock market values and rate that's the whole darn way is it really possible that for my whole career we've been in one gigantic bubble can we really say that it's all been engineered by the Fed and nothing else of course not that's lunacy so let me tell you why this rally is the real thing and I've got five reasons first and most obvious there's an incredible thing about stocks they may just we're all gonna die they may just be pieces of paper but you can sell them and take that money to the bank and you know what when you go to the bank to deposit your winnings from the big Fed induce bubble yeah thank you they don't ask you how you earn that money never once has anyone said you know what the teller window I can't take that money it doesn't count because you gotta wear a system alan alan greenspan thermonuclear I'm not done or maybe you got some Bernanke or Janet Yellen yelling yes or j-pal a win is a win it's not a service for heaven's sake second it's true that our stock market is being inflated by money from overseas foreign investors are desperate to own dollar denominated assets something that's because the United States isn't better shape than many other developed countries so much because central banks are all over the world aggressively debasing their currencies so more and more money flows here you know my response is my response is who cares we have a strong currency the dollars a magnet for money overseas so what again a win is a win hey by the way speaking of central banks most central bankers would kill for the so called bubble that pals giving us talking about uncertainty people who make monetary policy want the economy didn't do well complicated sometimes they need to tap on the brakes to stable inflation but they're not some kind of neutral referee for heaven's sake when business slows down they're supposed to cut interest rates that's what pal says he'll do he's not cheating he's doing his darn job third I've heard all day that the game is rigged for stocks they go higher Oh give me a break the fact is that inflation so low in this country and demand for money is too cheering so fast the bonds just don't give you much in return that's how bond prices are determined that means stocks especially stocks with decent difference are the only game in town fourth I know this situation is far from perfect in a perfect world I'd prefer for stocks to go higher because the economy's growing what's wrong with stocks going up because the Fed is taking action to boost that economic growth if you thought business was going to slow down and you were worried about the market then after what pal said today you should be more willing to own and buy stocks because you're getting a jump on better times and stops anticipate better times fifth and finally I am so sick and tired of hearing it it's all about the fed yeah super what sure this sector in the Icicle sure the sector in the asset class matter but if you invest in the best companies you're going to make money over the long term with or without the darn fed and invest in bed companies just go companies with bad stocks like Levi's even the Fed can't say now there's bored of this game and interest rates there's such a thing say is ingenuity I'm a competitiveness power of invention technology when you look at the top 10 stocks that led us from SP 2002 us would be three thousand there are all examples of sheer raw brain power and technology at work right in front of you almost like Edgar Allen Poe's purloined letter but the bottom line we please save the darn bubbles for the bath tub for heaven's sake the dollars you can make in this market well let's just say those dollars they're real and they are spec mic in New Jersey mic dr.
Kramer a big booyah - you tell you what what's going on I call okay Jim 75 years of age retired for the last 15 years I would like your opinion regarding the purchase of 10,000 shares of Starwood properties simple as TWD okay very sure look the whole way we think that Barry does a great job we said we pronounced the yield safe we said the return is good still yields 8% stocks up very big for the year but we are sticking with I sank ssin the by James and Florida James llevaba booyah Big Jim and so in starting Bush's gonna help I did what you said I thought I read your books all my boys watch your show I said 10% off my five best stocks and it's sitting in my bank now I'm looking at Delta Airlines what do you think well I in the market well I like Delta my favorite news United Continental but I'm not a big airline partner here Delta's by the way had a very good run it's a very good company maybe gonna pull back but remember the airlines I don't like you know if you really want to speculate on transports go down and dirty go believe it or not with FedEx do it Oh Dylan in Florida Dylan how you doing today Oh real well how about you doing yeah I just wanted to see your insights on nokia I've been buying it I just started in the market nokia is one of my first stocks I started buying I haven't sold it I'm about 10 verse I'm about 10 cents under average cost and giving the news about five I mean do you think I should second rate first of all Nokia River and filming completely nothing but a Nokia is a second-rate company I'm sorry was second rate 5g technology second rate bleeder not to Huawei which makes better and cheaper technology which is why this whole darn thing with China is such a problem stay away from Nokia all right I'm sorry to burst your bubble but it isn't bubble for heaven's sake this is real the dollars you can make in this market are real and yes they are spectacular oh man that's right I'm on a rampage and you want to miss it I'm giving you my take on the top ten SMP witters then I'm taking a look back at the IPO class of 2019 to see which companies are worth considering and it's a stock the Triad more than two thousand percent in the past two years and you've probably never heard of it I'll reveal it when I turn in tonight's homework so stay with Rhema
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