저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 짐 로저스는 미국 시장의 최악은 아직 오지 않았으며, 부채 문제로 고통이 더 이어질 것이라고 경고한다. 미국 시장 전망: 로저스는 지금까지 겪은 피해를 본 적 없는 수준이라고 언급하며, 미국 시장에 더 큰 고통이 남아 있다고 본다. 부채 문제를 핵심 리스크로 지목한다. 원자재·에너지: 최근 유가 급락에 대해 셰일(프래킹) 업체들도 수익을 내야 하므로 생산 조정이 이어질 수 있으나, 수요 감소로 바닥이 아직 형성되지 않았을 수 있다고 본다. 달러: 미국 달러를 심각하게 흔들리는 통화로 보지만, 다른 통화들도 더 나은 것이 없다고 평가한다. 사탕(설탕) 가격은 고점 대비 75~80% 하락한 사례를 언급하며 원자재 투자 기회가 있다고 말한다. 출연자(시장 분석가 Silvia Yeh, 골드만삭스 자산운용 뮤니 채권 공동대표) 발언: 뮤니 채권 시장이 가격 발견 과정을 거치며 변동성이 크고, 자금 유출이 이어질 수 있다고 본다. 10년물 AAA 뮤니 금리가 2주간 200bp 상승 후 3일간 145bp 하락한 점을 들어 이례적 변동성을 지적한다. 유동성 중심의 사건이지 신용 중심은 아니라고 본다. 매수자 동향: 세제개편 이후 보험사·은행 등 매수자가 이탈했다가 금리 매력이 커지며 복귀했고, 헤지펀드도 돌아오고 있다고 본다. 연준 정책: 연준의 유동성 조치는 2008년보다 훨씬 적극적이며 시장에 신뢰를 준다고 평가한다. 재정 대응도 인프라 등 지방정부 지원을 포함해 의지가 강하다고 본다. 리스크: 유동성 공급자의 행동 변화로 투자자들은 적응이 필요하며, 전문 운용의 중요성이 커진다. 이번 주 일정: 위스콘신 예비선거(화), 호주 중앙은행 금리 결정(화), 고용·신용 데이터(화), 생산자물가(목), 실업수당 청구(목), 굿프라이데이로 미 증시·채권 휴장(금).
다듬은 글
welcome to your market brief for the week of April 6 as the coronavirus crisis continues and as markets remain volatile let's get ready for the week with Jim Rogers he's chairman of Rogers Holdings and co-founder of the Quantum Fund moments ago he joined us from Singapore where he discussed his concerns about debt and why they're still more pain to come for US markets watch this because the damage has been down the road we haven't seen this I've never seen in my life sugar sugar it was down something like 75 or 80 percent from its long time we're not going to stop using sugar no matter what so there are certainly opportunities out there around and find some to invest in and I want to repeat about the u.s.
dollar you know the US dollar is a terribly throttled currency Caroline but everything else is more for what they think is this day paper so I am a lot of us and just quickly what's your take on the recent plunge in oil prices and the fact that they could go lower because you know fracking if you could spell France people would write you a check now everybody knows these guys have to make money so the practice so we're in the process of continuing to make the bottom part of the reason the bottom hasn't may not have been made yet this demand is down demand goes down surprise - shifting to a preview of the coming week the Wisconsin primary will happen on Tuesday which a federal judge declined to postpone amid ongoing virus concerns taking a look at the economic calendar we'll get data on US employment and consumer credit as well as a rate decision from Australia central bank on Tuesday the BLS releases the producer price index for March on Thursday will also receive another crucial reading on the labor market with weekly claims for unemployment insurance on Thursday in the US equity and fixed income markets will be closed for Good Friday let's continue to maneuver this challenging market with Silvia yeh she co heads the municipal fixed income business for goldman sachs asset management we recently discussed the impact the coronavirus has had on the muni bond market watch this the muni market in particular is challenging and in some cases is going through an ongoing price discovery process and that's particularly difficult for investors in our market who have really enjoyed or just coming off of a year a very strong performance outflows are also something that's probably going to continue for us and something that we need to keep an eye on with the volatility and it'll be interesting to see if these outflows are permanent departures from the asset class or just a result of rebalancing into equities and other risk assets that people have been waiting to do for a really long there's a positive to all of this which is nice and that is that buyers are actually back in our Marketplace on the back of tax reform we actually lost a lot of buyers and that is due to just Muni is not being as valuable as they once were and those buyers include insurance companies and banks and they've come back in now that our rates have gotten more attractive to them further the hedge funds are back in which is nice to see an alternative buyer I continue to have interest in our market in a nutshell I think Muni is just backed up way too quickly and then dropped in a similar fashion which is just not healthy for our sleepy market it's something that we're not used to and if you just look at one data point which would be the ten-year triple-a Muni it rose 200 basis points in a two-week period and then fell 145 in a three-day period that doesn't really happen so we are expecting this volatility to continue but we do believe it's a liquidity driven event for right now and not credit driven and I think that basis has to do a lot with the fact that the landscape the liquidity landscape for immunity's has changed and we've heard this a lot lately with traditional liquidity providers their motivation and their behavior changing so as investors we're gonna have to change tune we're gonna have to adjust we've been spoiled for a while and redefining the markets not necessarily a bad thing but it makes the importance of professional management that much more relevant I want to ask you about the moves of the feds they've made so far and really in many ways are designed to help the broader bond and Treasury markets operate more smoothly are they having success there you know I gotta say I'm pretty impressed in the financial crisis we didn't have this maybe it was because they erred on the side of caution in 2008 maybe we waited too long it's easy to say that now versus then but the action by the Fed is really unprecedented on the liquidity side and definitely gave our market some confidence there's no silver bullet that will fix everything but there is a willingness there to fix things and we didn't have that in 2008 a minute look at the fiscal response to whether it's policy or the stimulus that we've seen you know and I joke what you want about politics but we have three builds and more to come and the neat thing about all of this is they're talking about you knees they're recognizing the importance of the state and local governments they will not let the backbone of this country America's infrastructure fail my thanks to Sylvia gay with Goldman Sachs that concludes today's market brief I'm Caroline woods thank you so much for watching I hope you stay healthy and stay safe
Comments 0