저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 금 ETF는 실물 보유가 아닌 종이 청구권이라 상대방 위험과 파산 위험이 있으며, 실물 금이나 금광주가 장기적으로 더 나은 선택이라는 주장. [금 ETF의 구조적 문제] 금 ETF는 금을 직접 소유하는 것이 아니라 신탁 지분을 보유하는 구조다. GLD는 SPDR Gold Trust가 발행하며, 보관은 HSBC 등 수탁은행과 그 하위 보관기관(Barclays, 영란은행, JP모건 등)에 의존한다. [보관기관 보험 문제] 리스크헤지 커스터디언스의 CEO Oliver Garrett에 따르면 보관기관 보험은 금고 내용물의 시장가치가 아닌 제한된 일반 보험 수준만 보장한다. 금융권 충격으로 거래 상대방이 파산하면 투자자는 구제받기 어렵고 금 가격이 오르더라도 ETF는 무너질 수 있다. [청구권 vs 실물] ETF 매수는 금이 아니라 신탁의 주주가 되는 것이며 금 보유자가 아닌 종이 청구권을 갖는 것이다. 투자자가 금을 사는 핵심 이유인 위기 시 가치 저장 수단과 어긋난다. [WTI 유가 음수 사태와의 유사성] 2020년 WTI 유가가 몇 시간 만에 15달러에서 마이너스 40달러로 폭락한 사례처럼, 일부 금 ETF는 실물이 아닌 선물·옵션 종이 계약에 노출되어 있다. 금은 원유보다 보관이 쉬워 폭발 양상이 다르지만, 폭발한다면 상승 방향일 것이라고 주장. [코멕스 부분지급준비 구조] 코멕스는 100% 준비금 체계가 아니며 금 보유 증명을 요구하지 않는다. 종이 금 계약이 실물보다 훨씬 많아 공매도 측은 실물을 확보해야 하고, 롱 측이 실물 인도를 요구하면 실물 부족과 함께 가격이 급등할 수 있다. 코멕스 가격과 런던 LBMA 현물 가격 간 지속적 괴리도 이 위험을 시사한다. [달러와의 관계] 금은 달러의 최대 경쟁 자산이다. 금이 급등하면 달러는 약세가 되며, 극단적 상황에서는 달러 자산에서 금으로의 대이동이 일어날 수 있다. 은이나 비트코인도 위험회피 자산으로 언급된다. [반론과 조건] 롱 포지션 보유자가 실물 인도 대금을 실제로 낼 능력이 있어야 이 시나리오가 성립하며, 보통은 그렇지 않고 공매도 측이 롱 선물을 매수해 청산하므로 논리는 트레이더의 인도 의지와 자금 여력에 크게 좌우된다. [투자 결론] 금 ETF는 가장 위험한 금 투자 수단 중 하나이며 단기 매매에만 제한적으로 쓸 만하다. 실물 금은 상대방 위험이 없고, 장기적으로는 매크로 환경이 우호적이라면 금광 주식이 금 ETF보다 낫다. 코멕스 붕괴 시 금광업체가 인쇄가 아닌 전문성·혁신·노력으로 돈을 만드는 새로운 중앙은행 역할을 할 것이라는 주장. 금 ETF 붕괴 가능성, 금광주 우위, 실물 금 선호를 주장하며, 특정 가격 목표나 기간은 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
so Peter Schiff says the gold ETFs could explode and leave their holders with worthless paper claims today we explore three shocking risks that ETFs are exposed to and then consider who ultimately they may actually be suitable for so let's dive on in now this channel offers global macro insights for informed investing so do consider subscribing so gold ETFs and securities that track the price of gold they are liquid easily traded and theoretically provide convenient exposure to the gold price however there's some key points investors need to be aware of which is why Peter Schiff is so wary of these ETFs he's also a physical bullion dealer a'course but certainly I believe that his reasons here appear justified first up the gold ETFs are a form of indirect robbing direct ownership of gold this is because it is the intermediary rather than the individual investor that actually owns the precious metal this is a really important point bear in mind but if we actually back up slightly we know the key reason why people actually invest in gold is to avoid counterparty risk this is why gold is since such demand during the insolvency faced for financial crisis and trust between different counterparties banks and businesses breaks down yet gold ETFs are dependent not just upon the trust which for GLD is SPDR Gold trust but also the custodian who is appointed by the gold trust to actually look after the gold itself for GLD is HSBC a bank which is already under quite some financial strength yet HSBC appoints sub custodians to look after the gold which may include Barclays the Bank of England JP Morgan among others and according to Oliver Garrett the CEO of risk hedge custodians only ensure the contents of the vaults for limited general insurance rather than the market value of the gold itself imagine if the financial sector takes really severe hit an account party fails the investor has no recourse and gold ETFs will fail while the gold price may actually be soaring secondly buying into a gold ETF really reflects you buying a share in the trustee itself rather than gold you become a shareholder of the trust not a gold holder you simply have a paper claim on gold this is again contrary to the reasons why investors actually buy gold that is to act as a store of value during crises our final reason is a real shocker and relates to what we have recently seen in the WTI oil market where the price of oil went from $15 to negative $40 in just a few hours this is something that Peter Schiff and others have discussed for the oil sector it occurred as those speculators holding long positions expecting price rises couldn't actually take delivery and store that oil they then had to pay people to take these contracts off their hands as they had no means or desire to actually collect on this oil ultimately some gold ETF providers do not own physical metal directly but have exposure through future contracts or option paper contracts much like in the oil sector so could gold blow up in the same way that oil did this is a question a few people have asked me in the comments and the answer is certainly yes and the consequences of this would be absolutely dire but let's break this down storing gold is a lot easier than storing hundreds or thousands of barrels of oil moreover the excess demand for gold in recent months together with those three DS the debasement the deficits and the debt would mean that the blow up would be on the positive side which we'll come to in just a second but let's just understand the Comex gold market and the way in which this exchange works first it's not a hundred percent Reserve and does not require proof of gold ownership thus the calm X system works as a fractional-reserve gold pits where paper gold contracts a far far greater than the actual physical gold holding this dangerous system when in normal market conditions everything seems absolutely fine speculators short gold contracts in the hope that the gold price will fall but rarely have ownership over any metal meanwhile those taking long positions bet on price rises and will tend to roll over contracts rather than take delivery they may be happy with their trade position and expect future price rises to actually take place but in the event of a market panic perhaps a scenario which has caused a sudden a dramatic unexpected rise in the price of gold such as taking out an Iranian military target as we saw earlier this year some holding long contracts may actually notify comics that they wish to take delivery at their gold if you're short betting on a price fool you need to close that trade before further price rises take place B don't have the gold and then have to buy physical at a real premium to meet delivery and so on one side of the trade the shorts who were betting on the actual price falls and hence sold their perceived gold ownership need to get their hands on the physical product to give to the lungs who are requesting delivery now the market faces a stampede here where short sellers are desperately trying to actually get their hands on the physical metal before the price rises further meanwhile those with the long positions know that there is a finite supply of physical gold available this would send a gold price soaring just in the same way that we saw the oil price crash in the space of hours an absence of gold behind these paper contracts could blow up the entire comic system and send gold soaring while gold ETFs collapse this concern has been reinforced with the persistent differential between the comics and the LBMA spot price in London in recent weeks while theoretically these con facts could be settled in monetary terms what regular viewers will be all to wear of is that Gold's biggest competitor is the US dollar when gold is strong the US dollar internationally is weak and vice versa risk we can see here so if gold prices are exploding upwards rapidly the US dollar will be collapsing as a global Stampede takes place out of dollars and dollar assets towards gold another risk off assets such as silver or Bitcoin in contrast when the oil market blew up the physical supply was actually there with the comic system there will be insufficient physical metal to actually meet demand however there is one caveat to this argument and that is that those with long positions must actually have the funds to actually take delivery of the physical product generally this is not the case meanwhile those with short positions will try to actually close their trades with the purchase of long futures so this argument is highly dependent upon traders having the means and the desires to actually take delivery of the physical gold itself could it happen certainly it appears to be a clear risk which is inherent within the comics system and it is that for this reason that gold money ranks ETFs as one of the riskiest means to actually invest in gold while physical bullion avoids all counterparty risk of course but personally I think gold ETFs are almost best used if making short term rather than longer-term investments I would much prefer to invest in mining stock where yes there is counterparty risk and the potential for market liquidations but if the macro outlook remains very positive for these commodities and you do your homework on the companies it's a better long-term option than gold ETFs and in the case of comics explosion gold mines would actually become our new central banks creating money not through printing but through expertise innovation and effort now if you'd like to know why gold miners face such a positive perfect storm do check out this video here thanks so much for joining me hit that like button hit subscribe and I'll see you next time bye bye
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