저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 시장이 너무 낙관적이니 일부 차익실현을 하고 현금을 확보하라는 주장. [거시·금리] 장단기 금리 역전 등 경기침체 우려가 여러 차례 제기됐으나 연준의 금리인하로 해소되고 있다고 봄. 연준이 데이터를 따라 금리인하를 계속할 것으로 봄. [심리·낙관론 경계] 시장의 'Pangloss(모든 게 최선)' 분위기를 경계하며, 이런 분위기일 때 매도를 고려하라고 조언. 경기침체 공포가 사라지며 성장주가 오르고 경기민감주는 밀리는 흐름 언급. [무역협상] 미중 무역협상이 낙관적이라는 시각에 회의적. 중국의 펜타닐 단속은 긍정적이지만 관세 철회 등 실질 합의 확인 전까지 과열 경계. [소매·의류] 랄프로렌 실적은 좋았지만 일부 매장 정리 효과 포함, 갭(GAP) 등 일부 소매주는 조심 필요. 컬럼비아스포츠웨어 등 의류주 언급. [은행주] 은행주가 장기금리 반등 수혜로 가치가 있지만 이미 많이 오른 상태에서 중국 진출 기대는 과도하다고 판단, 경기둔화 중이라 조심. [5G·반도체] 퀄컴 실적 호조로 반도체 전반이 오르는 것은 과도한 외삽일 수 있으니 5G 수혜주 중 선별 접근 필요. 대폭락은 예상하지 않음. [개별 종목 Q&A] 그루폰 구독 프로그램 실망, 손절 권유. 로쿠(Roku) 실적 후 주가 약세, 경영진 보수적 가이던스 언급. Dave & Buster's는 최근 분기 부진으로 당분간 회피, 다음 분기 실적 확인 후 재검토 권유. 마지막으로 배당률 5% 이상 리츠성 종목을 언급하며 현금 확보 후 재투자 전략 제시.
다듬은 글
alking have money what would a great America everyone make ing but educating teachers to call me and one eight hundred and seven or three see me see or tweet me at Jim Cramer after a terrific day with the Dow serves 182 points s be game point two seven percent that's like a advance point to a percent you know this rallies not phony it is real it's definite but and this is a big button you know what I think it's time that we just shade things I think we should take a little off the table why do I say that it's not just because when I walk around downtown Manhattan I'm hearing more hey make me some money Cramer cat calls that I am hearing booyah or I love the show shoutouts it's not just the fact that you even you losers are turning into winners which typically means you're late to the party no it's because all the issues that have dogged the market suddenly seem to have gone away so I'm feeling like we've got a kind of Pangloss moment here yeah Pangloss that means you know frankly it means that we're in a position let me just say the Pangloss sellers is that's not what I'm talking about that's that grape vineyard in Sonoma I like that we're not talking about delicious Cabernet here we're talking about Voltaire's Pangloss all is for the best isn't the best of all possible worlds Pangloss whenever we start getting that vibe it makes me want to sell something because the best of all possible worlds nevertheless first though let's talk about what's going on right now right now because there are some good reasons people are so optimistic Exhibit A the 10-year Treasury for months the Bears told us that we were headed for a recession because bond yields were plummeting they argued that if interest rates kept falling we were going to start importing negative rates from Europe which was supposed to be really bad they claim that the inverted yield curve where our long rates had formed below our short rates meant that a serious slowdown was inevitable if not a recession and you got to stop buying things and stop expanding and you got to be more negative kind of a bit of a chicken in a story as our bond yields went down thanks to your investors panic cuz plummeting Banyuls are a sign of economic weakness which just cause more bond buying it's a flight to safety and that pushed yields even lower but a funny thing happened on the way to the inverted yield curve there's your very yield curve induced recession I should say turns out the Fed chief j-pal follows the footage of markets to who knew he even saw that things were going awry he knew that a yield curve this inverted can only really be cured by two ways okay and that is one strong loan demand with which would raise the longer race or a rate cut so he gave us a rate cut by the way that's why I never panicked about the yield curve because I knew the Fed if you're doing the wrong thing was gonna start doing things right that's the way it works even worked that way a little too late there in the 2008 period now why wasn't that self-evident to the pessimists I've got some theories first a lot of these naysayers hate Trump to the point where it messes with their judgment we saw the same thing from the other side of the ideological spectrum under Obama they didn't want to say anything against the bearish narrative for fear it be viewed as a tacit endorsement of the president think about that second many negative money managers needed the market to go down in order to be able to beat their benchmarks there they bet against the market or were under invested so they were eager to cheer for a thesis that predicted a recession so their caution would go over better with their investors third the only legitimate reason in my eyes j-pal used some silly words to talk about rate cuts saying something about some sort of mid-course adjustment boy everyone keel not this meaningless its parsing that's meaningless power races race too far too fast last year and I asked under the mistake but he can't just come out and admit it I mean that I would have to be a real Mascis to speak any about this stuff so he hasn't thrown a lot of people off the scent with that mid-course thing his real plan was to ensure we don't end up like Germany with a stagnating economy an inverted yoghurt not on his watch anything about Jack he got us right where he wants us he had all these people claiming he was done cutting rates but all along he was simply following the footsteps of this brilliant predecessor Janet Yellen he let the data and the homework tell the story don't pay attention to the over analyzers he's not done cutting until the data says he's done cutting now we know or have an inverted yield curve remember that always so worried their hand wringing the recession fears have been taken off the table problem solved in truth it never would have been a problem in the first place if people hadn't panicked about it that's one reason the averages have been so strong nobody worries about a recession anymore that's why you see all these big sickle stocks going up and the secular growers selling off second piece of the Pangloss in worldview the belief that the trade talks will go smoothly just the other day we heard that they were going brief they were going badly remember that they couldn't find a location or is like delayed of course it's entirely possible that something positive is going on the terrace could be rolled back I say that because China has finally followed through on one of his promises they're cracking down on illegal fentanyl exports that are killing so many people in our country it's the first time that maybe the Communist Party means business rolling back the tariffs though let's see what what else they agree to do before we get too giddy I'm not happy well let's just say I find the stories quizzical at the end of the day I don't like how everything suddenly seems so rosy just 48 hours after everything seems so horrible I think some ill-advised statements being made next bit of complacency earnings specifically earnings in retail and text this morning Ralph for reporting a fantastic number with excellent growth something better than expected it's been ages since we've heard that that a supplier to retail especially a wall retailer is doing well and of course they're also still freestanding stores now forget that much of the strength here came from pulling merchandise from poorly performing morals when you see the end of the inverted yield curve you want to buy stocks and do well in a healthy economy and apparel fits the bill R Bar L even here does know what the ouya I really like Columbia Sportswear CEO Ellen it had the misfortune reporting back when everyone was still worried about a recession if they reported today the stock would have been flying - and mr Boyle was on you know he told a great story but let's be careful here see because the pin action from Ralph Lauren spurted means your ally meteos also helped last night by Costco do it a little bit better expect you never and the problem is it's very I'm look at all these retailers are doing well time to trim as anyone who owns the forbearing gap which just supported not so hot number and so let's see you dispatched with knows I'm trying to keep you out of more gaps not just the store the fourth source of complacency the endless run in the stocks of the banks you know I've been a huge champion coop I think the financials represent incredible value and the rebound in long term interest rates will let them make more money but can we just admit that the people buying these banks let's just say they aren't exactly early sure some of the larger banks could get business from a move into China if that Chinese Chinese let it happen however I doubt business has gotten that much better that fast I think it's too tenuous given that we're still in the midst of a slowing economy final piece of the pink lost puzzle the possibility that the rollout of 5g wireless networks will drive all semiconductor cohort higher not just the companies that benefit from 5g which I will outline later in the show now all of them are going hard and that's how we got Wall Street's reaction to the huge number Qualcomm reported moving everything up that has anything to do with anything inside a cell phone but also most importantly inside cars inside buildings it's like data centers hey come on not all that's working I mean Corvo was great but people have extrapolated that's pretty much everything he did it again with Qualcomm I say dream one there are plenty of great 5g plays I have them but don't go beyond them look I'm not saying you should expect a big sell-off I don't in fact many stocks like that of Disney Act list like champs but the bottom line is that when you have a jailbreak of immense stock proportions like we're having right now you need to remember that not everything will work out perfectly so when the market starts behaving like we're in the best of all possible paying lossy in world's it is time to live to ring the register go out maybe go buy a cashmere sweater and that way you'll have more cash to work with the next time things go south because we know sadly they always got a rose in New Jersey rose I can what's up bro so well I'd like to know what do you think about Groupon subscription program you know I know I was depressed by that coupon number I was depressed by it I expected better it was disappointing and it's time to cut your losses sorry to be so bold but that's what it is I need Stephen in Pennsylvania please Stephen yeah hi Jim how are you I am good having you I'm good question is Roco a couple weeks ago was at 99 Brian shot 250 and last night if the earnings was reported in most twenty bucks I mean if you listen the conference cool you know I mean they basically threw cold water on the kind of rapid fire growth if they have when management floors cold water water I'm not gonna stand up and say that they're wrong and that's what happened there how about we got a mat in New Jersey mat a great big market guru boo you through Jim nice nice kind of a poety poor thing on there what's going on oh he's great I'm a second time Paula and I'm here my son Luca Luca yeah Jim yeah boo yeah Luca okay so sitting at dinner table the other day my son was talking about a stock that he was thinking of buying okay so I'm gonna let him tell you about the stock I am 10 years old I have some money in savings and wanted to buy stuff in June miss stocks fell 21% due to declining same store sales and flat earnings report it has been in the House of Pain ever Senator Jim I like this place what do you like the stock Dave & Buster's this kid's got horse sense what can I say I mean that's just good and you've nailed everything including the fact of the same store sales not being good so I gotta tell you Maddie in New Jersey here's what you're gonna do you're gonna stay away from that one because even though long term it might be okay there's gonna be a better time and that time is going to occur after we see the next quarter because that last quarter was all I can say dis pointing and you know it's always hard to believe it at this point you see they got this thing it goes down like this mm-hmm and then you pick up something I once lost $28 and I finally won it was like I got something that was worth like 28 cents that's a good business what's the deal but it's time to move a little I mean I expect a song no nothing right but not everything works out as perfectly as it looked like today oh man tonight I've got something to say to the doubters and progress in the Chinese trade boxes there's an interesting twist you're not talking about you know I couldn't want to miss it then I spent plenty time focused on stocks that could benefit from a 5g build out tonight I'm eyeing one player that's already reaping the rewards that started the revolution itself and can you cash in on your next run to the shopping center I got a company's counted 5 percent plus yield maybe it's the way to go
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