저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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우버는 비관적으로, 리프트는 매수 관점 유지. 두 승차공유 기업의 주가가 최근 반대 방향으로 움직이고 있으며, 리프트를 긍정적으로 본다는 주장이 중심이다. 리프트: 2분기 매출 63% 증가, 활성 라이더 28% 증가, 라이더당 매출 27% 증가 등 호실적과 상향된 연간 가이던스를 근거로 제시. 영업레버리지와 마케팅 비용 절감이 성과로 언급되었으며, 2021년 말 조정 EBITDA 흑자 전환 목표를 긍정적으로 평가. 리프트 주가는 실적 발표 직후 약 3.4% 상승 후 6% 하락했다고 언급. 다만 이익 흑자 전환이 목표이므로 투기적 성격이 강하다고 인정. 우버: 음식배달(Uber Eats) 적자, 총예약액 실망, 월간 활성 사용자와 총 트립 수 부진으로 비관적. 3분기 매출과 이익은 예상보다 양호했으나 주가는 약 10% 급락 후 추가 4% 하락. 우버의 보호예수(락업) 해제로 약 17억 주 중 약 10억 주가 거래 가능해진 점이 하락 요인으로 지목. 바닥 낚시(bottom fishing)는 아직 이르다고 판단. 리프트와 우버의 주가 괴리는 지속될 가능성이 있다고 전망. 리스크: 리프트는 아직 이익 미실현 상태이며 투기적 투자에 해당. 경쟁 심화(그럽허브 실적 쇼크 사례 포함)와 락업 물량 부담이 리스크. 고려아연 등 기타 언급 없음. 골드 헬스(LaVon go health 추정)에 대해서는 긍정적 언급이 있었으나 인수 가능성은 추측 수준. 출연자 전망: 리프트 매수 추천, 우버 비추천.
다듬은 글
normally stocks in the same sector trade together and stocks in the same industry trade almost in lockstep but every so often you get an abnormal situation with the stocks of two extremely similar companies take off in opposite directions like we're seeing right now with uber and lyft from Muncie to ride-sharing place with the poster children for everything wrong with the IPO market in 2019 uber lyft both came public in the spring with incredibly disappointing action right out of the gate they both tried to rally over the summer they both broke down in August and they both kept falling until mid-october last month though both stock started rebounding from their lows and traditional flirt with lyft I have to tell you I've been very bearish on these two so I wasn't sure what to make of this move dead cat bounce legitimate bottom give that these ride-sharing outfits are exactly the kind of growth names the market turned against over the summer ultra-fast growers that are a long way from turning a profit I didn't care to speculate didn't seem worth it but a funny thing happened over the past week let's report it and decent quarter last Thursday and then it over report an ugly coral Monday all of a sudden these two stocks that had been training together for months and months and months are now moving in opposite directions lives hang in there while ubers breaking down and when you take a closer look I think they could keep moving in opposite directions yep I'm pessimistic about uber prospects right here because there's committed seemingly to lose money particular because of uber eats but lifts this could be worth another look there's no lift eats I'm gonna tell you why first of all it's worth noting that the two ride-sharing kingpins were already disentangling themselves when they reported in August the last time we got results from lift it actually shot the lights out smashing Wall Street expectations with powerful revenue growth and present cost controls spectacular guidance putting a narrower than expected loss versus last year and suddenly I started thinking maybe it's not just a glorified cab company while lyft stock jumped three percent the next day there's that's where it peaked though why well someone's because that's where the market turned against the hyper growth games but mostly I think it's because boomer reported a couple of days later and ubers numbers were much more mixed Wow the top dog posted weaker than expected sales even as it's Ernie's work better than feared the lesson of the last quarters that ubers a lot more cop cater than lift Wall Street doesn't like complication it's got a sprawling international business it's not a pure planned ride-sharing thanks Lube refrain and whoever eats and it's shipping and visited at food division I have to tell you the Hoover Freight just you know the freight business went down hooba freight business did well but the rates went down for all Freight now the stock got hammered on the news it's plunging from 43 to 33 over the next week and then the pin action trip dragged down lift two men with the rotation out of both both stocks spent months getting hammered until four weeks ago when they turned around started running in their earning season from October 10th so October 30 is Hoover rallies 18 percent lift pull vault in 24 percent what happened in this case I think it was positive pin action from lift pulling over back up so you left a public in March and the lock up on insider selling expired a month early on August 19th is when it happened that's another reason that stock got hammered over August September you had a massive quantity of previously restricted stock hitting the market pop out of the time mid October all around most of the insiders who wanted out well they'd already sold they'd gotten rid of a major overhang then two weeks ago lives to senior most executive spoke at a Wall Street Journal event telling investors that the company's would turn positive by the fourth quarter of 2021 the analysts who follow the thing hadn't even been dreamed of possibility within the next two years in response to stock caught a wave of upgrades and price target ice wall street has no patience for unprofitable growth plays right now but a growth name that hasn't clear path to profitability well that's a different story so live stock Ward uber wrote its coattails which brings us to last Thursday we lift reported yet another excellent quarter company delivered higher than expected sales up 63 percent your very high of the companies I follow with a much smaller than anticipated 28 percent increase in active riders 27 cent increase in revenue per Rider manners guidance was net for next quarter is it strictly boss once again they raised their full year forecast that's phenomenal look at this it's what you're looking for right it's what I'm looking for here's how CFO Brian Roberts put it on the call quote when we reported q2 back in August I described the second quarter sales and marketing leverage as truly exceptional well sales and marketing leverage in the third quarter was truly truly exceptional end quote what about cost containment as I'm here I'm quoting again as as a revenue sales and marketing was 16% in the first quarter versus 41% for the same period a year ago represented the cloud of over 60% end quote the holy cow Wow they run a good company Robertson they made it happen by quote taking advantage of the healthy market environment to reduce coupon incentives and drive operating leverage period end of story I just got a huge coupon by the way for uber I don't know if you got a 50% off you bid someone said to me the other day when I got I've made a wrong decision football and fantasy football they said you better bird and short for the second quarter in a row lyft knocked it out of the park sure they're still losing money but they've made major strides he's getting costs under control imagine his promises deliver positive EBIT Dobb by the end of 2021 now sounds incredible however because the stock could already run into the quarter it initially bounced just three point four percent only if there's the session down six percent I'm calling that profit ticket now when uber reported on Monday ooh messy while their sales and earnings were stronger than anticipated gross bookies disappointed again and both monthly active users and total trips were a little soft the biggest negative was this uber eats the online delivery service we know the industry is in horrible shape just last week the biggest player in the space GrubHub had a total meltdown after management told investors that they were going to earn far far less than anyone expected as the industry's gotten way too competitive and the diners have become promiscuous yes the promiscuous diner I believe it's open 24/7 don't get me wrong uber is also making major strides toward profitably I'll be giving him that imagine police they can start breaking even in 2021 - I'm giving him that but the stock still got obliterated yesterday nearly ten percent before losing another four percent today why in addition to all the hair on the quarter Uber's lockup with insider selling expired the come he's got 1.7 billion shares outstanding about a billion of these shares just became tradable today a lot of speculation that because it's under wall IPO underwater they wouldn't sell it oh come one they sell it when they think it's going lower and they buy it they think it's going up remember lift out of littering by its lock-up expiration over the summer I wouldn't be surprised if uber is just having the same experience although I was I was I was gratified that it didn't go down much more than it did the bottom line it's still way too early to go bottom fishing uber the markets being flooded with supplier it's gonna clear up but that's what's happening lifts not only is it lock up expiration whirring the rearview mirror it's now reported to terrific quarters and ruff and that's why I think lift is fondly worth buying here we should have lift on the show because we like them and they've been on but because of its lack of profitability let's be clear it's just for speculation or for young people who use it instead of buying cars Greg in Ohio Greg hey Jim a big Columbus Ohio booyah to you and go brownies yeah why not okay what's up I was just wondering what your thoughts on the stock LaVon go health we like it a lot we I know it hasn't been that good but we you know we were actually thinking we were speculating if Tim Cook were in an acquisition mood well you would be a buyer of it but he's not still I think it's a good situation like typically Sox in the same sector trade together but every so often you get a situation like we saw in uber and lyft lift is a buy right now uber not so much okay there's much more mad money ahead could him I sit down with first horizon CEO what does its merger with Iberia bag mean for you and your shower do not miss my exclusive then hyper closed box can't seem to get any respect in this market I'm explaining why with one that I think is critical to this entire market you probably never heard of it in order to
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