저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 인프라 수혜가 2차·3차 파생으로 확산 중이며 미국 기술 강세장이 수년간 이어질 것이라는 주장. Dell·Cisco·HP 등 기존 기업들이 AI 수혜를 받고 있으며 밸류에이션은 아직 낮다고 봄. AI 산업은 이제 2~3회차 초기 단계로 자본 지출 대비 수익화는 15% 미만에 불과하다고 언급. 24시간 거래 확대는 변동성을 키우는 양면성이 있다고 평가. 사모 AI 기업 접근용 폐쇄형 펀드(IVAI) 출시를 소개.
다듬은 글
If someone told you a year, year and a half go, Dell is an AI name, they'd say you're crazy. And then you look at Cisco, you look at The reality is the infrastructure plays, HP would be in one of them. It's about the install base. And I think what's happening here, Steve, is that the second, third, fourth derivative of AI are now starting to play out.
And that's for the broader tech trade, that's very important, not just infrastructure, but when it comes to software, cybersecurity, many other areas. Would you say these companies are generally how shall I say this? Less well-valued than the other more popular names in AI? Yeah, I think many of these names, I think investors are still skeptical that and and the multiples that they're assigning, you know, in my opinion, they're not really giving what could be true AI potential monetization.
But I think Dell being a good example, as they proved it out, the stock reflected it. But it just shows like investors are going to look at the new shiny object, but a lot of these old-school companies, they're starting to get a sort of renaissance of growth, and also they could acquire. And that's another thing that's happening in the
hammering this issue of how long it would be that this revenue would play out over and is it, you know, what's the horizon for valuing this company over? Just Is it a one-time deal? Is it more to come? Is there more expansion to come on a company? I think we are in third inning. You can maybe even say second inning of the AI revolution.
And I think as this all plays out, the trillions of dollars of capital these companies have spent, we've only spent less than 15%. And it comes down to the first for the first time in 30 years, US is ahead of China when it comes to tech. And it's not just going to be a small group of companies that benefit like me like we've seen over the last year, year and a half.
It's going to spread, and I think that's bullish for this market. We had Vlad Tenev on earlier from Robinhood talking about Can you explain to me that what do we mean when we're talking about 24-hour trading? Cuz I still experience the workday kind of like I did 20 years ago. There's a stock market open, there's a stock market close.
And so for all of these headlines, what is the practical effect of that? I think what it's going to add a lot more volatility, you know, in terms of that that that that we see in terms of stocks. And I think look, it's positive in some ways, negative in others, based on liquidity and a lot of the Look, you even see it a lot of times over the weekend if news hits.
You know, everyone's like, "Well, I can't wait to see what's going to happen Monday open It's like we're down 7% on Sunday night and we open up down two, you know. And that's And I think that's the double-edged sword here given the liquidity and given as it all plays out. And the AI trade, information's non-stop.
I think it just speaks to that, you know, we are still in just the early days and more and more retail, more investors that are really, you know, looking at the market. I think that's very healthy, it's very positive. Vlad talked about it. But I think it's going to be definitely some like a tug-of-war
Yeah, I mean that's it. To step in, but I just I think it's positive if it gets more people ultimately into real investing, right? I don't think it's so positive if people experience trading, experience trading losses, and just kind of, you know, walk away. Well, I agree. I think that it could have a negative effect, too.
Because then, you know, some of the shorter moves that you could see on some of these stocks Think about the volatility that you see on a tech stock after they report earnings or going in or whatever the rumors that come out in the market. I think that's the double-edged sword that we're playing. But the reality is like we're in a multi-year tech bull market that's being led by AI.
And I think you just want to see more and more participate. And what is You have a new closed-end fund not an ETF? Yeah, so People still do closed-end funds? This is like yeah. So so you know, the ETFs and all that the the I have ETFs that that that's still exists and you're very happy there. But the closed-end fund, IVAI that you know, didn't IPO $200 million launched today.
Look, this is about giving people around the world access to private AI tech companies. And do you have actual ownership of them or does this go into the whole SPV issue where people say they have access but they don't Like how does this work? Yeah, and I think for us that's really our opportunity is to go after private AI tech companies whether it's SPV, whether it's being on the cap table and you know with my team and Kelly I just my view is is that there's so much appetite globally not just institution but retail investors to own private AI tech companies.
It shouldn't just be a small group of people in Silicon Valley that could own them. Now with this being the first public it gives that opportunity. Just last comment on this but it's fascinating to watch and Steve maybe you agree all these IPOs being pulled because of market conditions when we're at basically all-time highs.
Even so today we had an an IPO of an AI adjacent company and I it didn't even go that well. So it's so confusing to say yes of course we all want access early stage access to these AI companies and hopefully they're generating an enormous amount of wealth but how can that demand be happening at the same time there's no demand for these kind of small IPOs that are coming to the market?
you have to separate the winners and ultimately where the demand is. The local investors could be skeptical on some but like I think that the super successful companies will continue to be able to go public. You know we just went through a road tour ourselves and obviously going public but this is one where you can't just paint them all with the same brush but we are early days get the popcorn out relative to where this AI revolution is playing out.
That was Dan Ives one of Wall Street's most bullish tech investors and so far that call has paid off. The XLK tech ETF is up 36% this year on track for its fourth straight positive year. Up next the CEO of Planet Labs they are partnering with SpaceX to send 20 satellites up into orbit. Stay tuned US Markets Edition we'll be right back.
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