저자: MichaelJay · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 레이 달리오의 '세상이 미쳤다' 주장은 과잉 유동성·국가부채·연금부담이 자산가격과 미래수익률을 왜곡한다는 경고이며, 영상은 그의 13F 포트폴리오를 분석하고 개별주 가치평가의 중요성을 강조한다. [달리오의 1번 주장: 과잉 자본] - 중앙은행의 자산매입으로 저금리·마이너스 금리 환경이 형성되어 돈이 사실상 공짜가 됨. - 이로 인해 자산가격은 상승하고 장기 기대수익률은 하락함. - 2019년 우버(상장 후 약 -37%), 릴리프(약 -46%), 스마일다이렉트클럽(약 -46%) 등 적자 IPO 사례 제시. [달리오의 2번 주장: 국가 부채] - 미국의 연간 이자지출이 세수보다 빠르게 증가, 이자만 약 6000억 달러. - 금리가 높아지면 정부가 파산 수준에 이르므로 중앙은행이 국채를 매입해 금리를 인위적으로 낮춘다고 주장. [달리오의 3번 주장: 연금·의료 부채] - 미적립 연금·의료 부채가 점차 도래하나 재원은 부족. - 해법은 급여 삭감, 증세, 화폐 발행 중 하나이며 정치적으로 화폐 발행이 가장 쉬움. 화폐 발행은 부를 만들지 않고 인플레이션 또는 자산가격 상승으로 나타남. [달리오의 4번 주장: 부의 격차] - 중앙은행 개입이 신용도 높은 자에게만 저렴한 자금을 제공해 부의 격차를 키우고, 자본시장 기능을 왜곡함. [13F 포트폴리오 분석 (2019.9말 기준)] - 상위 17개 ETF가 주식 포트폴리오의 약 80%, 전체 운용자산의 7%에 해당. - 비중: 신흥국 약 1/3, 미국 지수 약 1/4, 개별주 약 1/4(수익 기여는 약 1/3), 채권 ETF 약 9%, 금 ETF 약 6%, 선진국 ETF 약 3%. - 2019.3→9말 변화: 신흥국 ETF 및 신흥국 채권 ETF를 20~50% 축소, 브라질 ETF 조정, 대만 ETF 신규 편입. - 9월말 이후 약 1.5개월 수익률 약 +2.5%(개별주 반영 시 +3.3%), S&P500 대비 비교 언급. [시사점 및 진행자 견해] - 광범위한 분산투자가 핵심이라는 달리오 메시지 재확인. - 높은 밸류에이션은 낮은 기대수익을 의미하므로, 저평가 개별주로 수익률을 보완할 수 있다고 주장. - 사례: 시그나(Cigna) 매수(2019.5~10), 가치평가 모델상 적정가 약 209달러(12% 목표수익률 기준) 대비 저평가로 판단, 이후 약 25% 상승. - 가치평가 모델은 1단계/2단계 할인 이익모형 사용, 저평가 확신은 장기적으로 시장이 인정할 것이라는 믿음에 기반. - 진행자 본인이 구독자용 밸류에이션 스프레드시트를 제공한다고 홍보.
다듬은 글
Ray Dalio just made a dire stock market prediction here is his portfolio now recently Ray Dalio posted on his LinkedIn an article titled the world has gone mad and the system is broken now as the manager of the world's largest hedge fund when Dahlia speaks the market listens and in this video we'll be breaking down the implications of dahlias predictions on the stock market and how it affects us as investors in addition we'll take a look into dahlias most recent stock portfolio according to his 13 F filing to see how he's positioning himself and his firm Bridgewater associates to successfully navigate future markets we have a lot to cover so let's just jump into it but we'll start out with dahlias article posted on LinkedIn which is really worth the read if you have the time and I'll post the link to that in the description below now I won't read the entire article but it's such a concise and well written piece that I do think it's worth the time to break down specific sections on the points dahlias making starting with his first argument about why he thinks the world has gone mad dahlias observing that right now in global economies money's effectively free for those who are credit worthy the reason for this is that investors are generally willing to lend money to credit worthy individuals for very low interest rates and in some parts of the world actually negative interest rates now we're currently already experiencing very low interest rates in the US as seen by the near record low on the 10-year Treasury note but if you go and look in other parts of the world especially Europe and Japan in many cases if you lend money in those countries you're actually going to be paid back less than you lend out in a sane financial world this would make no sense because in that case you're better off just holding the cash because it's better than receiving less cash in the future now the main reason why all this is occurring is because central banks around the world are printing money and using that money to buy up financial assets if you look at the balance sheets of the major central banks in the world they've all been on an upward trend since the financial crisis this means that over the last 10 years these banks have been printing money to buy out financial assets in an attempt to spur growth and inflation however the issue is investors who are receiving this money aren't really wanting to spend it because they have really no need to so they want to invest it instead however the end result of this is that this ends up pushing up financial prices which is beneficial for the owners of those assets but on the flip side it also lowers the expected future rate of return for investors in the long term and the issue is this isn't just for bonds although it's most obvious because they have a stated interest rate but it applies to all of their asset classes as well that have been affected by this including stocks private equity and venture capital and the effects of this are something you can already see evidence of right now specifically because investors have so much money to invest now more than at any other period since the dot-com bubble you have a record number of unprofitable companies coming to IPO and the thing is in this cheap money environment the founders of these IPOs don't really care or need to have a plan to get to profitability because money is cheap and valuations are so high they can simply sell their shares to other investors who have money to burn this works out great for the founders of these companies but not so much for any retail investor who decided to buy these stocks take a look at some of the most recent IPOs of 2019 for example now keep in mind these companies stated in their s1 filings before IPO that they may not ever be profitable companies so the risks are evident right there but there's just so much money chasing the hope and potential of the next big thing that they don't really take these risks into full consideration so uber for instance is down 37 percent since IPO lifts a very similar situation down roughly 46 percent and smile direct Club another 2019 unprofitable IPO also down 46% so these are just a few examples of what happens when you have too much money in the system now it's great for founders who can cash out to cash in on this huge overvaluation but what retail investors didn't realize when buying up here was the true magnitude of downside risk that was actually present this gets into another issue which is that there's so much extra capital of floating around that some VC or venture capital firms are actually forcing companies to take on money even when they have enough and don't really need it if those startups say no those VC firms can go and take that money to a competitor and provide that other company financial support this can create a situation where you have many startup like firms all competing in a very competitive environment but none of them are actually making any money well all this artificial competition funded by cheap money is a bad thing for long-term investors in these firms it's actually a pretty good deal for customers take GrubHub for an example now this is a company that IPO five years ago and hasn't really made any money for investors who've held the entire time yes there were periods of heightened expectation but those expectations finally came back down to reality the company has a price to earnings ratio of 900 meaning they effectively make no profit now part of the reason for this is that investors are subsidizing the very high acquisition cost for new customers putting that into understandable language GrubHub will offer you 12 bucks off on a $15.00 order so effectively if you're a new customer you can get 15 dollars of food for 3 bucks now I don't really eat out that often but when I do I sign up for a free GrubHub account pay 3 bucks and have GrubHub shareholders cover the rest of my bill so getting back to dahlias article the first argument is that there's too much excess capital in the system this pushes up asset prices and pushes down future expected returns and causes distortions in the market like we're seeing with so many profitless companies and the second issue that Dahlia sees is that at the same time you have government's racking up very large deficits governments are spending much more than they're bringing in in taxes and as such have to issue the difference as debt now under normal circumstances the market would look at this and say well these governments are issuing more debt but they really haven't improved their financials this is probably a riskier investment and we should charge a higher interest rate however the issue is that governments are in such debt that they can't afford paying higher interest rates it would effectively bankrupt the whole system so what they do is they ask central bank's to step in and buy the government debt to help keep interest rates artificially low so they can continue spending even more than they take from their citizens and taxes this graph visually represents the situation we're in and it's a very scary graph to be honest this is the amount of annual interest that the US has to pay on their debt the issue is is that the interest that we have to pay our debt is rising much faster than tax revenues meaning that the only way we're going to be able to pay this interest is to continue issuing more debt but by doing that well then we're gonna have to pay more interest and you can see where this is going and keep in mind again this is all at a time where interest rates are at historical lows even with those low interest rates we have to pay 600 billion dollars just in interest payments we simply can't afford to pay normal interest rates like we did in the past which is why we see central bank intervention to help bail out the governments by buying up their debt and keeping interest low the third argument from Dalio is that at the same time we have all of these unfunded pension and healthcare liabilities many of which are coming due but we simply don't have the funds to pay for them now this isn't going to happen suddenly but it's going to be a gradual squeeze over a long period of time that's going to eventually get worse and worse because of the situation eventually you're going to have to do one of three things or combination option one is you cut benefits option two is you raise taxes neither of these are very politically appealing which leaves option three printing money this is the easiest for politicians because most people don't necessarily notice this day-to-day however it's important to note that printing money doesn't create wealth and it comes from somewhere either in the case of direct inflation where the prices of the goods rise or an asset price inflation well you do see a rise in asset prices you're taking away from the expected future returns from those assets just ask any retiree who depends on interest from fixed income they'll be the first to tell you that their budgets have been squeezed by the lower returns that they're getting on their investments and the fourth argument that dahlia brings up is that all this central bank intervention is actually causing more problems with the wealth gap is giving so much easy and cheap money to those who are credit worthy and effectively none to those who aren't the problem here is that central bank money printing is distorting the capital markets that make capitalism actually work you have too much money being thrown at these profitless companies which really ought to be invested in the economy more efficiently so long-term we've got some problems coming up that we're going to have to face at some point the question remains what are the implications today for investors and how can we best navigate the markets going forward in the future but to help provide a bit of perspective on that we can take a look at Bridgewater associates stock portfolio effectively Ray Dalio stock holdings within his hedge fund now keep in mind Bridgewater associates is a very diversified hedge funds and they have investments in all types of asset classes so when we're looking at this 13f filing with the SEC we're only looking at their direct stock holdings this would be individual stock positions as well as exchange-traded funds that are listed on the stock exchange now that being said even within the stock portfolio it's very diverse having over 330 positions in this case we'll be looking mostly at the top 17 positions which are all exchange-traded funds and make up about 80% of the total stock portfolio but keep in mind that's portfolio again makes up only about 7% of the total assets in the hedge fund the other 93% are invested in assets that aren't required to be reported on the 13f filing so let's take a look at his ETF positions now the way I like to think of his portfolio is in these groups first is US stocks generally represented by the S&P 500 then you have emerging market stocks which are stocks from countries that aren't quite fully developed economically are experiencing generally higher levels of growth rates than developed countries this also includes emerging market funds that are specific to a certain country like South Korea Taiwan or Brazil Dalio has also been an advocate of gold and he owns two gold ETFs within the top 17 positions compared to US stocks and emerging markets dele holds a much smaller position within developed market economies now while this is the stock portion of Daly's portfolio he does own some bond ETFs at least within the top 17 positions keep in mind that he likely owns many direct positions in bonds that wouldn't be reported here and the remaining 23 percent are all the other individual positions in the fund if you like to actually check out that data for yourself and see actually all the individual companies within the fund you can use the website called whale wisdom that's what I usually use for these portfolio analyses so this should help give at least a better visual representation of where Dallow is investing the stock portion of his fund in this case he is about a third allocated to emerging markets a quarter two US stock indices roughly another quarter two specific individual stocks about 9% to bond ETFs 6% to gold ETFs in a much smaller portion about 3% to developed market ETFs so this is as of the end of September 2019 but what's interesting is we can actually compare this to his portfolio at the end of March 2019 and what you'll notice is that he was a lot more invested were more heavily invested in the stock portion of his portfolio in emerging markets at that point over half of the portfolio was invested in emerging market ETF which gets me to this graph here on the Left which is the portfolio holding changes so effectively what this graph shows in the blue bars is the current percent of portfolio at the most recent filing so this would be as of September 30th what the red shaded area represents is that positions previous percentage in the portfolio during the last filing so in this case this red would be in the end of June 2019 so what this means is that when you see a blue bar less than a red bar it means that position was decreased compared to the previous filing and we can actually confirm that with the data here that the largest changes to the fund actually came from decreasing the position in these emerging market ETF as well as in the emerging market Bondy TF decreasing those positions anywhere from twenty to fifty percent now while there was a significant change in the Brazil ETF and also the new addition of a Taiwan ETF index the rest of the remaining positions in the top seventeen didn't really change that much no more than a ten percent difference from the last filing which means that of the money that was sold in emerging markets a majority of that likely went to individual stock selections now since we know what dahlias stock portfolio was at the end of September we can get a rough sense of how the portfolio has performed at least until now so assuming no positions have changed since the end of September which is unlikely but unfortunately that's all the information we have dahlias portfolio through mid November is up roughly 2.5% now that was without calculating the change for individual stock positions which I can actually do real quick right now okay I'm glad I actually did calculate that because that increases the performance up to three point three percent so again well this is just one and a half months of performance it doesn't really mean anything in the short term but it's more of a way of breaking down each of the components of the portfolio so overall the largest contributors to the return over this period was the SP 500 index funds as well as the emerging market ETF and then a large portion coming from those individual stock selections I'll say again this is just a month and a half of data so it doesn't really mean anything but just for comparison here's the return from Bridgewater's portfolio the S&P 500 index and this over this period of last month and a half I've got a really unusually high rate of appreciation in the stock holdings of my portfolio but I'll explain that in a little bit but overall now that we understand dahlias perspective and have seen his portfolio I think there are a few key takeaways one is that when you look at the portfolio holdings they are very broadly diversified across many different sectors and asset classes this has always been one of Ray Dalio strongest messages to individual investors is that diverse fine well is the most important thing you need to do in order to invest well Dahlia was really a man of his words when he comes to that because he owns effectively at least a portion of almost every tradable stock in the world now that's through his ETF holdings but he also owns a sizable portion of individual stock selections and keep in mind that this is only 7% of the total assets under management in the hedge fund that means he has of complete 93 percent of the rest of the fund invested in other asset classes beyond stocks well we don't know what those are we do know that Dahlia doesn't put all his eggs in one basket I think it's safe to assume that those funds are very well diversified as well another key takeaway is that due in part to cheap money and low interest rates stock valuations at least in the US are relatively quite high by historical standards and as we know the higher the valuation the lower the expected future returns which is why it can make sense to supplement your portfolio performance with individually selected stocks that you believe have a more favorable risk to return ratio than the average stock in the market if we look at Daly's portfolio again individual stocks made up less than a quarter of his stock positions but made up about a third of the portfolio returns meaning that relatively speaking over this period in time the individual stocks likely outperformed the rest of his portfolio and finding an attractive or undervalued stocks to invest in isn't something that just Dalio and his team can do you can do it as well and I'll give you an example from my own individual portfolio now one of the main reasons for the strong performance in the stock portion of my portfolio during this period in time was due to finding a couple high quality but undervalued stocks and one of the tools I used to help make that determination was a simple valuation model that I built myself if you're in my investing group which is the second link in the description below you can access the same spreadsheet by going to the spreadsheet library and clicking on the valuation spreadsheet so in this case the stock that I found that I believed was undervalued was Cigna corporation now Cigna is a health insurance company that's shown historically strong earnings growth rates in the past is still expected to continue to grow at above market rates for the foreseeable future despite this the stock was recently beaten down and trading at valuations below its historical average so I initiated a position in May of 2019 this year and continued adding to my position throughout October since then it looks like the market has caught on and the stock is up about 25% since then though I would have been happy if the stock continued to go down so I could pick up a few more shares so before I bought stock in Cigna I spent the time to value it within my valuation model to get a rough sense of what the stock was actually worth then compare that to what the stock was actually trading at in the market now I'll have a more detailed video on how you can actually set these assumptions in the future but based on my rough estimates at the time signal is worth roughly two hundred nine dollars if you were targeting a twelve percent annual rate of return even now the price is trading below that representing at least a ten percent margin of safety however when I was buying between roughly 145 and 167 a larger margin of safety which helped reduce the downside risk and also increase the potential upside return now this was a simple one stage discounted earnings model but I also built a more conservative two-stage discounted earnings model in that case a fair value for 12 percent returns would be about 164 dollars right now the stock is trading above that but at the time I was buying it was trading at or below that so this gave me enough confidence to build a relatively healthy sized position in the company because I had conviction that eventually the market would see the value in the stock and the stock price would appreciate to more accurately reflect the true value that the company was worth now it took about six months since I first started buying and mave to see real meaningful appreciation in the long term if you do good valuation work market will eventually agree with you but you just don't know when so as a compliment to stayin diversified making strategic bets and individual stocks that appear favorably valued can be a way to help generate long term returns regardless of market conditions anyway I hope you enjoyed and found this video interesting I always like getting a lot of different perspectives and dahlias is definitely one to listen to if you have any comments questions or suggestions for future videos let me know in the comments below and I'll do my best to get back to you until then next video
댓글 0