저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
요약 보기
1985년 워런 버핏 TV 인터뷰를 재구성해 가치투자의 핵심 원칙 7가지를 설명하는 해설 영상. 개별 종목 가격 예측은 없음. [핵심 원칙 1: 손실 회피] 첫 번째 투자 규칙은 돈을 잃지 않는 것이며, 두 번째 규칙은 첫 번째 규칙을 잊지 않는 것이라고 주장. 50% 손실을 회복하려면 100% 수익이 필요하므로, 상방보다 하방 위험이 낮은 기회를 찾아야 한다는 논리. [핵심 원칙 2: 기질>지능] 투자 성공에는 높은 IQ보다 안정적인 성격과 군중에 휘둘리지 않는 기질이 중요. 벤 그레이엄 인용: 옳고 그름은 많은 사람의 동의가 아니라 사실과 추론의 정확성에 달려 있음. [핵심 원칙 3: 장기 사업 관점] 주식은 사업의 일부이며, 장기적으로 주가는 기업 실적을 따라간다는 관점. 가격보다 먼저 사업 가치를 평가하고, 이후 가격과 비교해야 한다고 강조. [핵심 원칙 4: 소음 차단] 소셜미디어·뉴스·일일 주가 변동 등 대부분의 정보는 3~5년 뒤 사업 가치와 무관한 소음이라는 주장. [핵심 원칙 5: 역량의 범위(Circle of Competence)] 자신이 이해하는 분야를 정의하고, 그 안에서 가치 대비 저렴한 종목을 찾아야 함. 버핏 본인은 기술주를 거의 보유하지 않았다고 언급. [핵심 원칙 6: 좋은 공을 기다려라] 매일 수많은 기업이 시장가로 제시되지만 모두 칠 필요는 없으며, 이해 가능하고 매력적인 기회가 올 때까지 기다리는 인내가 필요. [핵심 원칙 6-보충: 야구 비유] 스윙하지 않아도 되는 '볼'의 개념으로 설명. 지루함을 견디는 것이 전문 운용가에게 어려운 과제라는 지적. [핵심 원칙 7: 가치투자는 어렵다] 개념은 단순(가치보다 싸게 사기)하지만 실행은 어렵다. 복잡한 분석이나 기술적 지표보다 사업 이해가 우선. [출연자 및 맥락] 영상 진행자는 교육 목적으로 원칙을 정리하며, 구체적 매매 권유나 시장 전망은 포함하지 않음. 특정 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
beside me is footage of warren buffett's first tv interview in 1985. in it he explains the habits and skills required to be a successful value investor now warren buffett doesn't need much of an introduction as ceo of berkshire hathaway he's well known as one of the best investors of all time but what i find most remarkable about his interview is that despite being recorded in 1985 his advice is just as relevant today the interview is just under seven minutes long but there are seven key lessons investors can learn from it after the interview also provides some additional commentary on how you can apply these lessons for yourself if you're new here and like this type of content take a second to subscribe and enjoy the interview the first role in investment is don't lose and the second rule of investment is don't forget the first rule and that's all the rules there are i mean that uh if you buy things for far below what they're worth and you buy a group of them you basically don't lose money what do you consider the most important quality for an investment manager it's a temperamental quality not an intellectual quality you don't need tons of iq in this business i mean you have to have enough iq to get from here to downtown omaha but but uh you do not have to be able to play three-dimensional chess or be in the top leagues in terms of bridge playing or something of a sort you need a stable personality you need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd because this is not a business where you take polls it's a business where you think and ben graham would say that you're not right or wrong because a thousand people agree with you and you're not right or wrong because a thousand people disagree with you you're right because your facts and your reasoning are right warren what do you do that's different than 90 of the money managers who are in the market certainly most of the professional investors focus on what the stock is likely to do in the next year too and there are all kinds of all kinds of uh arcane uh methods of of of approaching that but they do not really think of themselves as owning a piece of a business that the real test of whether you're investing from a value standpoint or not is whether you care whether the stock market is open tomorrow if you're making a good investment in a security it shouldn't bother if they close down the stock market for five years all the ticker tells me is the price and i can look at the price occasionally to see whether the prices outlandishly cheap or outlandishly high but but prices don't tell me anything about a business business business figures themselves tell me something about a business but the price of a stock doesn't tell me anything about a business i would rather value a stock or a business first and not even know the price so that i'm not influenced by the price in establishing my valuation and then look at the price later to see whether it's way out of line with what my value is so buffett chose to stay in this world omaha nebraska where corn grows just minutes from downtown now omaha is a nice town but nobody claims it's a world financial center here the only thundering herd is actually on four feet don't you find omaha a little bit off the beaten track for the investment world well believe it or not uh we get mail here and uh we get periodic olsen we get all the facts needed to make decisions and unlike wall street you'll notice we don't have 50 people coming up and whispering in our ear that we should be doing this or that this afternoon you appreciate the lack of stimulation i like the lack of stimulation we get facts not stimulation here how can you stay away from wall street well if i were on wall street i'd probably be a a lot poorer at uh uh you get overstimulated in wall street and uh uh you hear lots of things and and you you may you may shorten your focus and a short focus is not conducive to uh to long profits and here i can just focus on what businesses are worth and i don't need to be in washington to figure out what the washington post uh newspaper is worth and i don't need to be in new york to figure out what some other company has worked it's it's it's simply it's an intellectual process and the less the less static there is in that intellectual process really the better off you are what is the intellectual process intellectual processes is defining your level defining your area of competence and valuing businesses and then within that area of competence finding whatever sells at the at the cheapest price in relation to value and there are all kinds of things i'm not competent to value but there are a few that i am confident have you ever bought a technology company no i really haven't in 30 years of investing not one i haven't understood any of them so you haven't ever owned for example ibm never owned ibm marvelous company i mean a sensational company but i haven't owned ibm and so here is this technological revolution going on and you're not going to be a participant going right past me is that all right with you it's okay with me i don't have to make money in every game i mean i don't know what cocoa beans are gonna do i don't you know there are all kinds of things i don't know about and that may be too bad but uh you know why should i know all about them i haven't worked that hard on them in securities business you literally every day have thousands of the major american corporations offered you uh at a price and a price that changes daily and you don't have to make any decisions you have to make nothing is forced upon you so you there are no called strikes in the business the pitcher just stands there and throws balls at you and uh if you're playing real baseball and it's between the knees and the shoulders you either swing or you've got a strike call on you if you get too many calls i know you're out in the securities business you sit there and they throw us steel at 25 and they throw general motors at 68.
you don't have to swing at any of them they may be wonderful pitches to swing at but if you don't know enough you don't have to swing and you can sit there and watch thousands of pitches and finally you get one right there where you want it something that you understand and then you swing and so you might not swing for six months you might not swing for two years isn't that boring it would it would bore most people and and certainly boredom is a is uh is a problem with most professional money managers if they if they if they try to sit out an inning or two not only do they get somewhat antsy but their clients are starting to start yelling swing you bum you know from the from the stands and that's very tough for people to do warren your your approach seems so simple why doesn't everybody do it well i think partly because it is so simple that uh the academics for example focus on on all kinds of variables partly because academics you mean of professors right yeah the data is in business school sure and the data is there so they focus on whether if you buy stocks on tuesday and sell them on friday you're better off or if you buy them in election years uh and sell them in other years you're better off if you buy small companies there are all these variables because the data are there and and they learned how to manipulate data and as a friend of mine says to a man with a hammer everything looks like a nail and once you have these skills you just are dying to uh to utilize them in some way but they aren't important if i were being asked to participate in a business opportunity would it make any difference to me whether i bought it on a tuesday or saturday or an election year or something it's not what a businessman thinks about in buying businesses so why think about it when buying stocks because stocks are just pieces of businesses now that was an incredible interview and one i think all investors should hear now despite being over three decades old warren buffett's advice still is just as relevant today starting with his first and most important rule for investing don't lose money remember it takes over a 100 percent gain to recover from a 50 loss buffett understands this concept so instead of solely looking for opportunities that have high upside potential he looks for opportunities that have low downside risk i.e situations where if you flip heads you win if tails you don't lose much if you can find several of these opportunities then while you may have a few that don't work out you won't lose much money and the remaining winners can drive the performance of your portfolio buffett's second lesson was that investor temperament is more important than investor intellect the great thing about investing is that anyone can be successful you don't need a phd or an ivy league education to make money in the stock market long term that's because your attitude is a much greater factor than your intellect in determining your long-term portfolio performance your attitude includes your level of patience mindset and temperament ideally you want to be as objective as possible looking at the facts thinking logically and not worrying about what the crowd or the market thinks you wouldn't be emotionally affected by a short-term loss and likewise shouldn't be too excited about a short-term gain but with a level-headed temperament you can re-evaluate the valuation of those stocks at that point in time and make an informed decision on what to do from that point forward the third lesson and the one that really helped warren buffett differentiate himself from other money managers is that he has a long-term view which focuses on the business not the stock as an investor the underlying business performance should also be your primary focus as over the long term the stock price will generally follow the direction of the company's earnings once you have evaluated both the business in its current state and what you can reasonably expect it to be worth in the future then you can look at the stock price to see if it's trading at a discount to what you believe the business is intrinsically worth if you look primarily at the stock price first you may have a tendency to use that stock price to justify the business's underlying valuation and worth for instance if the stock price is high rising or increasing you might inherently believe that the company is naturally worth more even though price and value are not the same thing as a value investor make sure you're focusing on the business and don't let yourself be too concerned with day-to-day price fluctuations as most of that ends up just being noise especially for an investor whose investments have a long-term time horizon and speaking of noise that actually gets to warren buffett's fourth lesson which is to tune out the noise especially in today's world where we get so much information whether that's from social media or other news sources this overload of information creates a lot of noise that distracts from long-term thinking and reasoning now this noise can come in many forms including news articles opinions on certain stocks or investments and even just daily stock price changes in determining what information is actually useful for helping making a long-term investment decision you should ask yourself if this information will be really relevant to the business three or five years down the line it's likely the vast majority of the investment information you're exposed to doesn't pass that test by identifying and then removing that noise from your information diet you're re-shifting your focus to valuable information that can help you make a more informed long-term investment decision buffett's fifth lesson was to find and or develop your circle of competence your circle of competence being a subject area that matches your skills or expertise for instance if you've worked in the finance or insurance industry you may have more insights and understanding on those specific types of companies and stocks compared to the average investor peter lynch also calls this finding an edge when you're investing you have to ask yourself what is it that you know that gives you an edge over the average investor looking at that company now this doesn't have to necessarily be a decade of experience within the industry and could be as simple as first-hand experience or observations around the company or the products they sell it's important to understand what you know and also what you don't know because by viewing outside of your circle of competence or investing in something that you really don't have any underlying knowledge about is one of the easiest ways to break that first rule of investing and lose money so when you have an idea of what you want to invest in it all comes down to buffett's sixth lesson which is to wait for the right pitch in this baseball analogy you're literally thrown thousands of pitches every day as you can buy any stock on the market at the market price however if none of those pitches or investments look attractive to you at that current price you don't have to swing or invest and can wait until something looks exceptionally attractive to you for instance there may be some opportunities that come by that appear to be offering a reasonable expectation of 8 annualized returns those might be some fairly decent pitches to swing at and invest some capital into those stocks or you could wait for opportunities that offer an even higher potential rate of return again it's up to you to decide when to swing and the best value investors have the patience to wait for an attractive opportunity and that gets into the seventh and final lesson buffett leaves us which is that value investing is hard at its core value investing is buying an asset at a price lower than what it's worth that's actually quite simple but it doesn't make it easy you don't need complicated analytics you certainly don't need any technical analysis or other short-term indicators what you do need to do is focus on the business first understand what it's reasonably worth and try to buy at a price below that the investors who have the patience and temperament to achieve this end up doing quite well over the long term overall i really hope you enjoyed the interview and were able to learn something from it if you want more content like this i'll leave a link in the description below of a playlist that includes more lessons from great investors and definitely consider subscribing with the bell to be notified when new videos release until then thank you so much for watching my name is michael and i will see you in the next video
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