Why Mohamed El-Erian would pick Brainard over Powell as Fed chair

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결론: 엘-에리안은 연준 의장으로 브레이나드가 파월보다 경제 전문성 측면에서 낫다고 보며, 연준이 인플레이션 대응이 늦어지는 것이 시장의 가장 큰 리스크라고 주장. 인사 관련 주장: 두 후보 모두 자격과 의회 통과 가능성은 충분하지만, 경제 전문성이 FOMC 운영에 결정적이라 브레이나드를 선호. 최근 몇 주간 바이든 행정부 기조가 인플레이션을 더 심각하게 보는 방향으로 바뀌어 판세가 변했다고 진단. 시장 전망: 증시 조정 시 저가 매수(딥바잉) 흐름이 계속될지는 불확실하다고 언급. 테이퍼링(채권매입 축소)은 다가오고 있으며, 자산 시장에 유동성이 넘치고 과도한 위험 감수가 있었다고 지적. 리스크 1 - 정책 실수: 연준이 너무 느리게 움직여 나중에 급하게 긴축(브레이크)해야 하는 시나리오가 가장 가능성 높음. 이를 피하려면 지금 긴축 속도를 올려야 한다고 주장(테이퍼링 가속 필요). 리스크 2 - 시장 사고: 과잉 유동성과 과도한 위험 감수로 예상치 못한 충격이 올 수 있으며, 이미 몇 차례 그런 일이 있었음. 리스크 3 - 지정학: 특히 미중 관계의 불확실성이 날씨 등 다른 요인보다 크다고 평가. 중국의 대만 침공은 저확률 고충격 사건의 예시로 제시. 언급 자산 방향: 대상 자산에 대한 직접적인 가격 예측 발언 없음.

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01. i don't know if in all the reopened bars the ones that are i don't know if everyone is sitting around talking about brainerd versus powell maybe not um but certainly a guy like you muhammad has to either be hearing things or or thinking about uh what potentially happens in the next week or so what do you where do you think we are between this what became more of a horse race than than we really thought it was as recently as a month ago i mean there's a pretty good chance it could be brainerd isn't there there is let me first think i'm not hearing anything what i am sensing is people recognize both of them have experience they recognize that both of them be continuity and they recognize that both of them would get through congress where it's different is expertise one is an economist lil brainerd and the other one is a lawyer jerome powell and i think that that is a critical issue as you look forward in terms of who do you want navigating the fomc and do you have a would you have a preference muhammad at this point knowing what you know look i think they're both highly qualified if you were to put a gun into my head and say choose one i would go with leo brainerd because i think economic expertise is going to be absolutely critical as we navigate this joe there's been a significant change in the last few weeks the direction of travel is very clear take the inflation threat more seriously two make sure that you do not destabilize inflation expectation because the last thing we need is that to come on top of the supply issues and finally be more open-ended more open-minded not just to go more quickly in easing stimulus but thinking about climate thinking about crypto thinking about regulation so i think the direction of of of travel is clear and that's why the odds have changed do you uh you still think we're gonna see this this uh money move into any pullback that we have in the equity markets you've called it the dip buying what's the canary in the coal mine uh that maybe that's not gonna work forever what would you i think i've asked you this before but you know we tapering is is coming uh we've got these you know we've got some trouble in in parts of the country in michigan and other places it has us wondering about cold weather and you know whether we're really completely finished with this so uh what what do you think it would be maybe the fed doesn't move too quickly because of that so i have three sets of risks and and i've shared with that with you that one is a policy mistake and the most likely mistake we are facing is the fed goes too slowly and then has to catch up and then the market cannot cope with hitting the brakes that's why you've heard me for the last six months say ease your foot off the accelerator it's a good time to ease your foot off the accelerator because all of us want to avoid a hitting the brakes scenario and that means joe accelerating the taper next month that's what that means okay so so with number one is that the fed is too slow risk number two is that you get some sort of market accident there's been a lot of liquidity sloshing around there's been a lot of excessive risk taking and you always worry that something's going to hit you out of left field and two things already hit us out of left field and we're very lucky that didn't cause a major accident and then the third one is geopolitics more than cold weather or anything else the geopolitical situation particularly between china and the us is pretty unpredictable it's certainly uh it certainly is so that's if you had to rank those in terms of of where you think the problem is or just give them percentages what what would you say china seems i don't know that that that would be one of those uh black swans that come kind of comes out of out of nowhere even though we talk about a lot none of us really believe that it's front and center you you think basically it's it's it's it might be inflation and the fed uh moving to try to contain it yeah i think that's the highest risk that the markets face right now is that the fed will be late and it's also the highest risk the economy faces and it's a higher risk in terms of social implications as well um in terms of china if you wanted people focus to get to focus on a very low probability but high impact event ask them what would happen to the marketplace in the global economy if china were to invade taiwan that will give you a feel for what a very low probability high impact event looks like