저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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다음 주 증시 전망 결론: 소비 강세와 주요 소매·기술 실적 이벤트를 주목하되, 최근 많이 오른 기술주는 눌림을 기다리는 전략이 유리하다. 원유: WTI가 80달러에서 78달러로 내려오면 인플레이션이 일시적이라는 신호로 보며, 셰일/퍼미안 증산으로 유가 상단이 제한될 수 있다고 봄. 식품 인플레이션: 타이슨푸즈 실적은 식품 물가 부담을 확인하는 재료이며 강세론에 불리할 것이라고 봄. 루시드: 화요일 실적 이후 재평가 가능성을 언급. 럭셔리 전기차 업체로 내연기관 시대 종말을 이끄는 기업 중 하나로 봄. 월마트·홈디포·로우스: 월마트는 양호하다고 보며, 홈디포는 실적 당일 상승 후 콘퍼런스콜 뒤 하락하는 패턴이 있어 눌림 후 대안으로 로우스 매수를 제시함. 로우스는 CEO 턴어라운드로 더 나은 운영자라고 평가. 시스코·엔비디아: 시스코는 구독형 전환 기대로 긍정적. 엔비디아는 올해 이미 두 배 넘게 올라 기대치가 높아 실적 발표 후 급락 가능성을 경계. 소매주(콜스·메이시스): 소비가 강해 재고 부족 우려보다 판매 호조가 중요하며, 할인 프로모션이 적어 정가 판매가 가능하다고 봄. 반도체장비·소프트웨어: 어플라이드머티리얼즈는 마이크론과 연동되며 실적 기대. 인튜이트, 워크데이, 팔로알토네트웍스는 실적 호조를 기대하는 긍정적 시각. 풋락커·나이키: 나이키는 중국 제조 문제에도 미국 시장 호조. 풋락커 실적은 몰 기반 신발 소매의 시험대로 제시. 전체 리스크: 기술주는 많이 올라 실망 시 급락 가능, 숏 포지션은 여전히 압박 상태. 출연자 전망: 다음 주 증시는 소비 강세 속 기술주 조정 후 기회를 노리는 흐름으로 전망.
다듬은 글
let's go over to our game plan for next week first we're going to come in on monday and we want to see just mention this west texas intermediate crew down to 78 from 80. that would be a sign that the inflation story really is transitory that would be a win for j-pal i think it's a real possibility i was talking about oil with my friend rusty brazil of rbn energy my favorite energy expert he's along quite a bit and he's got of the opinion that the 100 oil thesis from not long ago has really evaporated sure the speculators will be back on any spike up but we're finally seeing more production from the permian basin that can keep a lid on prices wouldn't it be something that the thing that drove the cpi up the most peaked i think it did if you're searching for inflation though you're going to find it with tyson foods which which reports monday morning we know food inflation's hitting everyone hard tyson will will hurt the bull case for certain uh they always do then after the close we go uh get the results from lucid group that's that luxury electric vehicle maker which might be due for a revaluation if the rivien's monster move this week you know what we're going to be in san francisco next week where we hope to catch a glimpse of lucid's car i think this is one of the handful of companies that's ushering in the twilight of the internal combustion engine in this case in the luxury vehicle you know i like tesla and i like driven but given the state of the market i'm betting any of them can work here including the one we see lucid tuesday oh boy behemoth we hear from walmart and home depot i'm getting signals from my charter's friends that will mark stocks of gwener that it's got an ugly double top brewery as someone who owns it for my chapel trust i take in every clue both technical and the fundamental uh even as i think walmart's doing fine no it's not costco which has membership fees to fall back on and it's not like target but it's tremendous house brands by the way target reports on wednesday i think it's gonna be good still 200 million people visit walmart every week and so much of the retails on if it's on fire that i got to feel that even the flame will catch to there now uh as for home depot this one's got a pattern and you got to understand this okay it they reported say 6-0 usually like six o'clock in 30 seconds or 601 and it tends to open up on earnings news and then plunge later in the day when they listen to conference call if you don't already own i recommend waiting for the typical post-quarter sell-off it's getting nauseating but be aware of it if home depot does get hit again no i got an alternative plan because you can probably drag down lows low they don't trade as much together anymore that's your chance to pounce on lowe's low lowes is now the better operator and that's thanks to ceo marvin ellison's incredible turnaround efforts we get results from lows on wednesday morning i'll bet they deliver a fine quarter with a strong holiday forecast so if home depot goes down you can buy some lows chapel trust has positions of two major companies that report wednesday night cisco and nvidia cisco's now the definition of what i call it's just a cheap tech stock we'll be following closely to see how it's transitioned to more of a subscription-based service provider is going higher margins i expect good things and videos got a tough act to follow itself stocks already more than doubled this year so the expectations are high unfortunately it's got a nasty habit of jumping up and then pure wetting down when someone finds some line in a quarter that's a little bit off and you can tell it's going to happen someone downgraded the stock today fearing uh elevated expectations now this went so deep into next week that you'll have to check your investing club boltons to see what we're thinking we do a deep dive into all the travel trust stocks when they report why do i mention this because it would make you better okay thursday morning we hear from two retailers that i both like and one is a new noodle like which is kohl's i started liking it and some activist action there and then macy's which i've liked all the way down and then up and that's not really distinguished me other than the fact that i think jeff gets doing a good job as i keep telling you i love retail right now because the consumer's so strong that it can trump any worries about a lack of inventory that the media teams to just endlessly focus on what matters is there are very few promotions going on that's far more important than the port congestion story they can sell almost everything at full price that they have and that sensor stocks are poor congestion you know how many stores we have yes twice as many as we need so if you can't find something in one well you go to the other after the closed thursday there are a ton of reports for some very good companies there's applied materials seven doctor capital equipment maker has a great deal of crowbar applied materials tends to trade with micron the big commodity chip maker and my car's been red hot all week no no one's talking about except for me but if you look at this so many people downgraded at 68.69 it's pathetic we also hear from intuit that's the small business owner's best friend this software company has been consistently fabulous it would be fabulous again that's what they do they report fabulous numbers then there's workday the cloud-based human capital actual clap capital management software play i think workday's last acquisition is just crushing it that last quarter was amazing for them and then last but not least a lot of last there palo alto networks reports and with so many people still working from home i think this is the golden age for cyber security companies that are uh not necessarily all native uh uh cloud now the last few quarters of palo alto and the castle roar have been extraordinary you know what you're gonna get another one finally comes friday which is foot locker day when you go back to nike's most recent quarter there were a couple things we didn't like especially the manufacturing problems that slow down china but the u.s nike's on fire by the way nike stock never looked back after people stopped thinking about china now this is a fantastic setup for a mall based shoe store and there you are with foot locker if they can't blow that out in this environment though i don't know when they can and i will no longer speak of them even though they're the only company reports on friday i'll i will make up a company rather than talk to them if they blow this core that that's not true but you know what i'm saying the bottom line look for a week where the shorts will still be trapped the consumers robust and tech falters if only because it's run so much but therein lies the opportunity is to wait for the faltering a lot of these stocks have run too much and if i tell you to buy them monday then i can see on my mentions columns people say there's ghost kramer again but i actually have a guy who reads that now because i'm tired and my feelings got hurt
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