저자: 스탠리드러켄밀러 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 드러켄밀러는 약 6개월째 진행 중인 약세장이 아직 더 하락할 여지가 크며, 인플레이션이 5%를 넘은 뒤 연착륙 가능성은 낮아 경기침체(하드랜딩)가 유력하다고 봄. 하락장 전망: 현재 약세장이 6개월째이며 전술적 매매자에게는 첫 번째 하락 구간이 끝났을 수 있으나, 약세장이 더 진행될 가능성이 매우 높다고 주장. 연착륙 가능성 평가: 역사적으로 연착륙은 두세 번뿐이었고, 인플레이션이 4.5%를 넘은 뒤에는 연착륙 사례가 없었다고 언급. 현재는 인플레이션 약 8%에 비해 기준금리가 턱없이 낮아 하드랜딩 쪽 확률이 높다고 판단. 역사적 근거: 인플레이션이 5%를 넘으면 한 번도 경기침체 없이 잡힌 적이 없으며, 연준 금리가 CPI를 넘어야 잡힌다는 통계적 사실을 제시. 금리가 8%까지 가는 것은 자산버블과 피해 규모 때문에 현실적으로 어렵다고 봄. 금융 시스템 리스크: 파산이 거의 없는 현 상황은 QE에 의해 가려진 것이며, 1890년대 이후 가장 파괴적인 시기가 될 수 있다고 경고. 연준 금리가 8%에 이르면 상당한 파괴가 있을 것이라 언급. 투자 전략 변화: 본인의 암호화폐 전략도 정보에 따라 계속 업데이트한다고 밝힘. 이전 영상(비트코인 vs 이더리움 비교)을 언급. 인플레이션 장세 자산 선호: 인플레이션성 강세장에서는 금보다 비트코인을 더 보유하고 싶고, 스태그플레이션형 약세장이면 금을 원한다고 언급. 현재는 기다리며 지켜보는 접근. 비트코인 장기 전망: 5~10년 후 블록체인이 경제의 실질적 동력이 될 것으로 봄. 나스닥과 암호화폐 간 강한 상관관계를 지적하며, 이를 지표로 본다고 언급. 다만 확신을 가지고 베팅할 단계는 아니라고 함. 연준 전망: 이번 주 회의에서 약 0.5%p(50bp) 인상이 예상되며 이는 직전 회의와 같은 공격적 수준이라 언급. 시장은 어느 정도 이를 선반영하는 중이라는 진단. 조언: 젊은 투자자에게 현재가 아닌 1~2년 후 시장 참여자들의 생각 변화를 상상하라고 조언. 주가는 현재 상황이 아니라 미래 기대로 움직인다는 논지. 출연자 관련: 영상 제작자는 알트코인 데일리 채널의 오스틴이며 드러켄밀러는 인터뷰 대상자로, 발언 정리 대상임. 영상 내용은 2022년 6월 기준.
다듬은 글
my best guess and um this business is about guessing there are no certainties is that we're six months into a bear market that has some room to run uh for those tactically trading it's possible the first leg of that has ended um but i think it's highly highly probable that the bear market has a ways to run yes welcome back everybody to altcoin daily my name's austin billionaire investor stanley druckenmiller is on record of where he sees markets headed towards the end of 2022 in to 2023 and it's bad he not only predicts a recession in the future but a hard landing a crash to that recession and by the way it's just his opinion but he does back it up with reasoning that i want to share with you he's also another billionaire bullish on bitcoin and cryptocurrency long term we'll talk about that but keep in mind this is a full hour-long conversation which i will link down below out of these almost 70 plus minutes i'm gonna play two clips about 90 seconds each and by the way stanley druckenmiller is so well respected in the investing space when he speaks people tend to listen and last year in 2021 he was one of those investors saying guys we probably topped inflation's horrible the economy's horrible and he was right anyway let's play this first clip druckenmiller's opinion is that markets are going much lower or probably headed into a recession watch this but i think it's highly highly probable that the bear market has a ways to run is it going to be a soft landing or a hard bonding well the answer is i don't know but the probabilities of being a soft landing are pretty remote john historically i think we've only pulled off two or three in history the one i lived through i remember so well was the 94-95 one but we've never had a soft landing after inflation's gotten above four and a half percent and the situation we face now is extraordinary where the fed where are we these days i guess we're at 75 basis points i can't keep up but even the projections of two percent you're so far behind the inflation rate and there's so much wood to chop and there's been such a broad asset bubble going into it it's very hard for me to say that the probabilities favor soft landing indeed i think they aggressively point to a hard landing anything's possible as i said earlier i've been wrong plenty of times in my career but betting on a soft landing to me is a real is a real long shot okay so billionaire investor stanley druckenmiller says we're six months into a bear market and still have a ways to run and he says this because looking at the history of markets anytime inflation has exceeded five percent we're at eight point something percent now but anytime we've been over five percent in history the fed has always drove us into a recession by how aggressive they got with rate hikes to try and combat it right now inflation's eight percent and interest rates are only point seven five to one percent listen to this next clip of stanley dragon miller going further why he is preparing himself for much lower lows watch this so you think once inflation goes above five percent it's very hard to tame us in a way that's elegant well that's what history says it's there's an interesting historical fact which in fact i think is going to be violated but two undefeated records are number one once inflation gets above five percent it's never come down unless uh fed funds have gotten above the cpi well since the cpi is eight that would call for a fed funds rate of above eight frankly i don't think we'll get there because the extent of the asset bubble and the damage that would be done think about the fact that we have virtually no bankruptcies and look at this probably the most disruptive period since the 1890s uh i don't need to tell a founder of stripe that um but if you look across the landscape there should have been many many many bankruptcies which have been buried by qe so if in fact fed funds ever got to eight percent which by the way i don't think is going to happen um the destruction would be quite material the other the other statistical fact is once and once inflation's got above five percent to use your word it's never been tamed without a recession so if you're predicting a soft landing you're going against decades of history could happen anything's possible but i don't think it's probable okay what do you think about this i would love to get a little poll down below in the comments section do you agree with stanley druckenmiller do you disagree comment down below let's all check the comment section together but i agree with him just on the simple fact that every time inflation has gone above five percent we've usually been forced into a recession to taper that now how does that affect me has my crypto strategy changed in any way to prepare for this potential outcome well the answer is obviously yes as i get more information my strategy is always updated that's called being a smart investor about 13 days ago i made this video bitcoin or ethereum which one is better in 2022 i will link this down below highly recommend you check it out and last but not least i want to play you the third clip oh just have to like the video real quick of why stanley druckenmiller is bullish on crypto and bitcoin long term by the way if you haven't already be sure to get up to a hundred dollars in crypto with altcoin daily through our partnership with ftx they are one of the most respected exchanges in the game with fees up to 85 cheaper than competitors use promo code altcoin daily when you sign up and earn up to 100 just by buying or selling crypto link down below take advantage okay here is that final clip of why stanley druckenmiller is bullish on crypto long term watch this and there certainly seems to be a strong correlation between crypto and the nasdaq i don't think it takes a genius to figure out why so i'm looking at as an indicator that way crypto um you know everything that that charlie munger says about it i'm sympathetic to everything that says bill miller says about it and so it's sympathetic too so i think that's a movie that has yet to be played out and one that i don't want to bet on in conviction but i will be very surprised if blockchain isn't a real force in our economy say five years from now to 10 years from now and not a major disruptor with with companies that will have been founded between now and then that will do very well but they will also challenge things like our financial companies and do a lot of disruption and for sure if i think we're going to have an inflationary bull market um i'd want to own bitcoin more than gold and if i thought we're going to have a bear market you know stagflation type thing i'd want to own gold doesn't mean i'm going to believe that in a year but that's my assumption going forward from this point okay so he essentially says that in an inflationary bear market just like now he would rather own gold but long-term bullish on bitcoin and he is taking the waiting and watching approach now the fed does have a meeting this week it's happening on the 15th and they will most likely raise rates by 50 basis points by 0.5 which is as aggressive as they were last meeting so that is to be expected as of now the good news is that we seem to be pricing it in in a sense because the market's bleeding i want to leave you with one last bonus clip of stanley in that interview but anytime these notable figures in the investing space speak about bitcoin about macroeconomics i will find it i will bring it to you but in this last clip the interviewer asks what advice would you have for a young stanley druckenmiller 20 years old starting now i.e advice for young investors he says don't invest based on what's happening now invest on where you see the climate being a year from now two years from now long term for you great advice i'll leave you with this tell me how people are going to think differently in 18 or 24 months about the situation than they're thinking now that would be my number one advice to the young people do not do not invest in the present the present is not what moves stock prices change muslim and i want you to try and envision a different world in a year and a half from now and where these security prices were traded versus now given the world you envision that would be my number one advice to a young person getting in the business
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