저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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결론: 마크 파버는 미국 주식 시장이 곧 40%~20% 조정을 받을 수 있다고 보며, 미국 대신 유럽·신흥국 주식과 유로화를 선호한다. 시장 상황: 트럼프 당선 직후 주가 상승은 인정하지만, 현재는 'euphoria(과열)' 단계로 진단한다. 진짜 매수 기회는 사람들이 주식을 팔고 패닉셀할 때라고 주장. 지역별 비교: 연초 이후 S&P500 +6%, 스페인 +20%, 이탈리아 +12%, 인도 +18%, 싱가포르 +14%, 한국 +16%, 멕시코 +19%(모두 달러 기준). 따라서 미국 주식 랠리는 매력적이지 않다고 봄. 상승을 주도하는 소수 고밸류 종목(넷플릭스, 테슬라 등)도 위험 요인. 재정·거시: 세제개편 여부와 무관하게 재정적자는 증가하며 채권에 우호적이지 않다. 미국 경기 확장은 8년차로 본인은 경기침체가 끝났다고 보나 강세장이 14~15년 갈 수도 있다고 인정. 미국·서구 경제는 '말기적으로 병들었다'고 진단, 2007년 이후 글로벌 부채/GDP 비율이 거의 두 배로 증가. 세금 감면(자본이득세 인하 등)은 도움이 안 된다고 봄. 마이너스 금리 도입 없이는 경제 상태가 좋지 않다고 평가. 트럼프 및 연준: 트럼프는 원칙이 없고, 연준 감사를 주장했다가 옐런 의장에게 굴복할 것이라고 비판. 포트폴리오 제안: 당장은 주식 매수보다 현금 비중을 늘리고 유로에 투자하는 것을 선호. 유로는 저평가 상태로 매력적이라 봄. 유럽 주식도 상대적으로 매력적. 업종별로는 금리 민감주, 인프라 관련주, REITs, 필수소비재(consumer stable)가 상대적으로 견조할 것으로 전망. 핫한 신기술주는 가격이 너무 높고 불확실하다고 경계, 블랙베리·노키아 사례 인용. 반론 대응: 2012~2016년 '폭락' 경고가 빗나갔다는 지적에 대해 2012년엔 조정(correction, 20% 하락) 경고였다고 반박하며, 채권과 신흥국 투자 관련 과거 주장이 일부 맞았다고 주장. 기관투자자의 80%가 시장 대비 underperform한다는 연구도 인용.
다듬은 글
Doom Report, also known as Dr. Doom when he comes on this show and others, joins us by phone. Uh, great to have you, Mark. Listen, you've been calling from 40 to uh 20 to 40% correction, yet the gentleman just laid out all the reasons that the markets are moving higher from here. When does this market crack?
Well, we don't know when it cracks. And to be fair to me, uh, just around the election, I said that the market would first go up because that the Trump victory would be positive for stocks and not negative. And now, but we're past the victory now. We're past the victory. We're we're close to the end of the first 100 days.
Yes. Uh, the point I want to make is that we are in the euphoric stage. your previous commentator show that people are piling into stocks. I want to buy stocks when people are piling out of stocks, right? When they're panic selling. And right now uh and this I maintained for a while. European stocks and emerging market stocks are far more attractive than US stocks.
Keep in mind the S&P is up 6% year to date. Spain is up 20, Italy 12%, India 18%. Singapore 14%, Korea 16%. And Mexico, who has been attacked by Mr. Trump so badly, is up 19%. All in US dollar terms. Well understood. So I don't think that rally in US stocks is such a great deal. In addition to that, it's driven by a few very expensive stocks from Netflix to Tesla and of course Mark, let me ask you this.
What's the biggest risk to this market right now? You mentioned Trump Euphoria, which is certainly a piece of the puzzle. Um, but as the gentleman mentioned, he hasn't actually gotten anything through. So maybe this tax reform uh tomorrow coming is sort of a lastditch effort. If he doesn't do that, is that the biggest risk?
Well, the point is no tax reform, deficits will go up. With tax reform, deficits will go even up more. So, both scenarios are not particularly bond friendly. I'm still of the view that we are 8 years into an economic expansion, 8 years into an uh stock market, bull market, and I think that uh recession is over.
But Mark, I I don't disagree with you there, but some bull markets can last 14 or 15 years. Correct. That's what I'm saying. Trump has no principles. He has now gone back before he wanted to audit the Fed and basically attacked Mrs. Yellen. Now he will go and kneel in front of Mrs. Yellen and say please don't increase interest rates.
Please keep on printing money. I'm sorry Mark. One of our our traders wants to jump in here. Let's toss it over to Scott. Yeah, Mark. It's Scott in Chicago and I have a question. And you've been saying essentially the same thing since by my reckoning uh 2012 and been consistently wrong since then. And on today today we have uh Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ composite hitting all-time highs.
NASDAQ composite above 6,000 S&Ps up nearly 1% today. Uh so if somebody piled in in 2012 or 13 or 14 or 15, they've done pretty well. Why were you so wrong then? And why should we think you're right now? Well, actually to correct you, I warned of a correction in 2012 and we had one and uh we didn't have a correction.
Correction is a specific term meaning down 20%. Look, I Yes, correct. I tell you when all it's over, people will love me for having warned them to have all their money into in stocks. And I'm used to people who always attack me. But in 2009, who was there and said buy stocks? Well, that's great. But in 2012 and 13 and 14 and 15 and 16, you said sell because it's going to crash.
And so people have missed more of the recovery than they would have caught if they bought in 2009 and sold in 2012. And I'm asking just a simple question. What about your analysis was wrong in 2012, 13, 14, 15, 16 that that leads you to believe that you're you're you're you're more informed now? Well, the market is far higher and the bull market has lasted a very long time.
And uh I have to also correct one point you're making in 2007 2012. I was relatively positive about bonds and I argued that emerging markets would go up strongly and some emerging markets have actually gone up vertically and bonds have actually performed quite well. There was recently a study done about how well individuals do in this market and as you can yourself see many institutions in fact 80% of them have underperformed the market.
What about the hedge fund index and you're accusing me of being wrong? I laugh at it. Okay, Mark, I have a question for you too. We're talking and and I'm not I am just changing the channel a tiny bit here. you we've talked about the price of the stock market. Am I to assume that you believe the under uh the underpinning economic fundamentals are awful in this country right now?
And is there something President Trump can do to push us more in the right direction? Of course, I'm leaning toward are these tax cuts going to help? Would capital gains tax cuts help? Would things like that help in your opinion? I don't think so. I think the US economy and western economies in general are terminally sick and we have since 2007 before the crisis essentially almost double global debts as a percent of GDP.
We have a huge debt load. The US has run a deficit for as long as the eye can see. uh the conditions today are more fragile than they were ever before and unless somebody comes and introduces minus 5% interest rates which is a tax on the wealthy people I think the economy is really not in such a great shape I'm actually amazed that people are so optimistic if you look at consumer sentiment service Mark let me ask you this.
If you're not optimistic about the United States as a market, fine. Um, what are you buying right now? You mentioned some of the emerging markets that have, you know, gone straight up. I'm assuming you want to avoid those. Where's the growth opportunity? What should investors be looking at right now?
Well, basically, as I mentioned to you, India this year is up 18% in US dollar terms. I think India is still relatively, I have to say, relatively attractive. I would rather than buy stocks like uh tomorrow I would rather build up cash positions and essentially invest in euros. I think the euro is attractive very depressed.
I think European stocks are relatively attractive and among the stock markets the sectors I think interest rate sensitive stocks infrastructure play will do reasonably well read will do relatively well and consumer stable and I think all these hot stocks don't forget I mean people in fund management they never remember anything.
Blackberry was the leader in smartphones. Nokia was the leader for many years in phones. Where are they today? Well, things definitely new technologies are very uncertain and uh the prices you pay for these new technologies are extremely high. Sure, one will survive like IBM survived, but IBM hasn't done anything for years.
Mark, always great to have you on the show. Thank you for your views. We do, you know, respect them even though we push back. Um, you know, we're just trying to get more clarity on on what is going to happen with this market. That's what our viewers need. So, thank you. Doom report, also known as Dr.
Doom when he comes on this show and others joins us by phone. Uh, great to have you, Mark. Listen, you've been calling from 40 to 20 to 40% correction. Yet, the gentleman just laid out all the reasons that the markets are moving higher from here. When does this market crack? Well, we don't know when it cracks.
And to be fair to me, uh, just around the election, I said that the market would first go up because that the Trump victory would be positive for stocks and not negative. And now, but we're past the victory now. We're past the victory. We're we're close to the end of the first 100 days. Yes. Uh the point I want to make is that we are in the euphoric stage.
Your previous commentator said people are piling into stocks. I want to buy stocks when people are piling out of stocks, right? When they're panic selling. And right now uh and this I maintained for a while European stocks and emerging market stocks are far more attractive than US stocks. Keep in mind the S&P is up 6% year to date.
Spain is up 20, Italy 12%, India 18%. Singapore 14%, Korea 16%. And Mexico, who has been attacked by Mr. Trump so badly, is up 19%. All in US dollar terms. Well understood. So I don't think that rally in US stocks is such a great deal. In addition to that, it's driven by a few very expensive stocks from Netflix to Tesla and of course Mark, let me ask you this.
What's the biggest risk to this market right now? You mentioned Trump Euphoria, which is certainly a piece of the puzzle. Um, but as the gentleman mentioned, he hasn't actually gotten anything through. So maybe this tax reform uh tomorrow coming is sort of a lastditch effort. If he doesn't do that, is that the biggest risk?
Well, the point is no tax reform, deficits will go up. With tax reform, deficits will go even up more. So both scenarios are not particularly bond friendly. I'm still of the view that we are 8 years into an economic expansion, 8 years into an uh stock market, bull market, and I think that uh recession is over.
But Mark, I I don't disagree with you there, but some bull markets can last 14 or 15 years. Correct. That's what I'm saying. Trump has no principles. He has now gone back before he wanted to audit the Fed and basically attacked Mrs. Yellen. Now he will go and kneel in front of Mrs. Yellen and say please don't increase interest rates.
Please keep on printing money. Let's say I'm sorry Mark. One of our our traders wants to jump in here. Let's toss it over to Scott. Yeah, Mark. It's Scott in Chicago and I have a question. you've been saying essentially the same thing since by my reckoning uh 2012 and been consistently wrong since then and on today today we have uh Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ composite hitting all-time highs NASDAQ composite above 6,000 S&Ps up nearly 1% today so if somebody piled in in 2012 or 13 or 14 or 15 they've done pretty well why were you so wrong then why should we think you're right now well Actually to correct you, I warned of a correction in 2012 and we had one and uh we didn't have a correction.
Correction is a specific term meaning down 20%. Look, I Yes, correct. I tell you when all it's over, people will love me for having warned them to have all their money into in stocks. And I'm used to people who always attack me. But in 2009 who was there and said buy stocks. Well, that's great. But in 2012 and 13 and 14 and 15 and 16, you said sell because it's going to crash.
And so people have missed more of the recovery than they would have caught if they bought in 2009 and sold in 2012. And I'm asking just a simple question. What about your analysis was wrong in 2012, 13, 14, 15, 16 that that leads you to believe that you're you're you're you're more informed now? Well, the market is far higher and the bull market has lasted a very long time.
And uh I have to also correct one point you're making in 2007 2012 I was relatively positive about bonds and I argued that emerging markets would go up strongly and some emerging markets have actually gone up vertically and bonds have actually performed quite well. There was recently a study done about how well individuals do in this market and as you can yourself see many institutions in fact 80% of them have underperformed the market.
What about the hedge fund index and you're accusing me of being wrong? I laugh at it. Okay, Mark, I have a question for you too. We're talking and and I'm not I am just changing the channel a tiny bit here. you we've talked about the price of the stock market. Am I to assume that you believe the un uh the underpinning economic fundamentals are awful in this country right now?
And is there something President Trump can do to push us more in the right direction? Of course, I'm leaning toward are these tax cuts going to help? Would capital gains tax cuts help? Would things like that help in your opinion? I don't think so. I think the US economy and western economies in general are terminally sick and we have since 2007 before the crisis essentially almost doubled global debts as a percent of GDP.
We have a huge debt load. The US has run a deficit for as long as the eye can see. uh the conditions today are more fragile than they were ever before and unless somebody comes and introduces minus 5% interest rates which is a tax on the wealthy people I think the economy is really not in such a great shape I'm actually amazed that people are so optimistic if you look at consumer sentiment service Mark let me ask you this.
If you're not optimistic about the United States as a market, fine. Um, what are you buying right now? You mentioned some of the emerging markets that have, you know, gone straight up. I'm assuming you want to avoid those. Where's the growth opportunity? What should investors be looking at right now?
Well, basically, as I mentioned to you, India this year is up 18% in US dollar terms. I think India is still relatively, I have to say, relatively attractive. I would rather than buy stocks like uh tomorrow I would rather build up cash positions and essentially invest in euros. I think the euro is attractive very depressed.
I think European stocks are relatively attractive and among the stock markets the sectors I think interest rate sensitive stocks infrastructure plays will do reasonably well. REIT REITs will do relatively well and consumer stable and I think all these hot stocks don't forget I mean people in fund management they never remember anything Blackberry was the leader in smartphones Nokia was the leader for many years in phones where are they today well things definitely technology are very uncertain and uh the prices you pay for these new technologies are extremely high.
Sure, one will survive like IBM survived but IBM hasn't done anything for years. Mark, always great to have you on the show. Thank you for your views. We do, you know, respect them even though we push back. Um, you know, we're just trying to get more clarity on on what is going to happen with this market. That's what our viewers need. So, thank Nobody has any cl
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