저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 시프는 금 가격 강세와 연준의 금리인상 기대 후퇴를 근거로 달러 약세·금 강세 흐름을 보며, 미국 경기 약화가 일시적이 아니라고 본다. 금 시장 동향: 2017년 6월 8일 코미 청문회 전후로 금 가격이 1295달러 부근까지 올라 연중 고점을 찍었다가 1281달러 부근에서 마감했다. 금 관련주는 뒤늦게 반등했다. 달러 및 유럽 변수: 달러는 6개월 저점을 기록했고, 드라기 ECB 총재 발언 영향으로 소폭 반등했다. 영국 총선은 브렉시트가 이미 진행 중이어서 금 시장에 큰 영향은 없다고 봤다. 연준 금리 전망: 6월 금리인상은 시장 기대대로 실행될 가능성이 크지만 100% 확실하지는 않다고 봤다. 다음 인상은 9월보다 12월로 기대가 옮겨가는 중이며, 연준이 낙관적이었다는 인식이 확산되고 있다. 코체라코타 전 연준 관계자는 금리인상과 대차대조표 축소 대신 확대를 주장했다. 미국 경제·소비: 1분기 소비지출 급감은 일시적이 아니라 2분기로 번지고 있다고 봤다. 연준은 데이터 의존적이라면서 나쁜 데이터를 무시하고 있다고 비판했다. 유통·상업용 부동산: 소매 부진은 온라인 쇼핑 때문만이 아니라 젊은 층의 학자금·자동차·카드 부채와 낮은 임금 때문이라고 봤다. 임대료 하락과 금리 상승이 겹쳐 상업용 부동산, 특히 쇼핑몰에서 공실이 늘고 은행 대출 리스크가 커질 것으로 전망했다. 언급 종목: 금 관련주(금 가격 연동, 상승 방향 언급), 미국채 금리(상승 방향 언급), 달러(약세 흐름 언급).
다듬은 글
Gold had a great day yesterday and in the midst of the Comey testimony on the hill it dipped and came back up here to discuss the reaction of the gold stuff Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital peter what can account for yesterday's high and the way it fluctuated today well i think gold has been trending up now for some time and so yesterday it hit a new high for the year didn't quite hit the 1300 milestone but it came pretty close I think maybe 1295 gold stocks finally kind of woke up from their slumber they've been ignoring the strength and gold and yesterday they finally participate or two days ago rather I think was the rally I yesterday there was a bit of a dip in the price of gold gold stocks pretty much held onto their gains but this morning just before a Comey testified there was a big seller that not gold down about 15 bucks and so it pretty much had retraced all of the rally from Elizabeth on Tuesday and but it did got quad sway back but not back into the black it still I think closed the session down about seven or eight dollars today but you know the price of gold is rising the dollar on the flip side the dollar hit a new six-month low again yesterday it rose a bit today both on the back of maybe some dumbest comments coming from Mario Draghi in this morning's press conference and then again based on the fact that there was no bombshell from Comey during this testimony Uriah tee held together pretty well I think Gold's close at what 1281 today if I'm not mistaken what do you think about the elections in the UK do you think it had any bearing on this you know many of our viewers are international they've been watching this very very closely Comey may or may not be a big issue to them what do you think about the gold trading on that well I don't think the gold again is trading much on the outcome of the UK election I mean bracket brexit is pretty much you know happening anyway and I think it's obviously a bit better for the British of the Conservatives stay in charge of that process and run their country but I don't know that there's a lot of people waiting on the outcome of the election as far as the gold market is concerned or or even the dollar I think that more people are starting to look at the US economy the fact that the weakness that we saw in q1 is not transitory that it's bleeding over into q2 people are starting to now backpedal their expectations for the second rate hike more people are now looking for December rather than September of course everybody thinks it's a foregone conclusion they're going to raise rates next week but you know we'll see I think more people are starting to come to grips with the fact that the Fed has been overly optimistic and maybe even some of the comments now coming from Fed officials or former Fed officials you had coach Lakota out the other day saying the Fed should not be raising interest rates in fact he said that they should not be talking about shrinking their balance sheet they should expand it some more which means he's talking about QE for now he may be an outlier but I do think over time you're going to have more people at the Fed now that are going to be singing that same tune so you think that the possibility of raising interest rates next week is a foregone conclusion or you disagree with that no I mean I think that the Fed is likely to do it because everybody expects it and so far when everybody expects a hike they've delivered but you know I don't think it's a hundred percent walk I mean it's possible as they don't do it but even if they do raise rates they may dampen expectations for future hikes we'll see so far they continue to talk about how great everything is and how everything is going according to plan but it's obviously not I mean they keep talking that their data dependent the data is awful yet they continue to ignore the awful data and act as if everything is going great well at some point they're going to lose what's left of their credibility if they don't even if now acknowledge what's going on but they're afraid to acknowledge it because the minute they do I think a lot of people who have been pretending everything is fine may have to stop pretending what do you think about these retail numbers that are affecting the economy so much q1 we saw a massive drop in consumer spending I've talked to plenty of people a guest on this show about consumer spending dropping especially among millennials who were strapped with student loan debt and the list goes on what do you think about that playing out with regard to the rest of the year and the data that you say is bad that they're looking at do you think they're actually taking this into consideration with the consumer spending they seem to keep saying it's transitory it doesn't appear so I know look they're overlooking a lot of these problems its retailers having a problem across the board and a lot of people are whistling past this graveyard because they're looking at Amazon you know in the sales there and they're saying well it's all just because consumers are shopping online and no it's not I mean sure that is part of the problem for brick-and-mortar retailers but it's not the entire problem you said it yourself the younger customer is broke they either don't have a job at all or they have a low paying job they're still living with their parents they don't need to spend much money and besides they don't have a lot of money to spend because they have student loan debt many of them have auto debt maybe they borrowed money to buy a car when they were in college and they have to deal with those payments and maybe they have credit card debt because they put what they didn't borrow from the government on their credit card while they were in college so they're loaded up with debt they don't have good paying jobs and what's more important to or maybe as important for the economy is that I think a lot of retailers you know pay rent to landlords and I think there's going to be a big problem in commercial real estate because I think you're going to start to see a lot of vacancies we're already seeing that in in you know commercial real estate in the shopping centers and the malls and then you know you've got interest rates now rising albeit slowly but when you value commercial property you take the income and you discount it with a cap rate which is a function of interest rates when your rents are falling because your tenants are going bankrupt and interest rates are rising that's that's a recipe for disaster and of course the banks are on the hook they have all these commercial loans out there well and you're right the malls are turning into ghost towns and retailers are closing that's one in 10 of Americans employed there thank you so much for weighing in on this Peter Schiff CEO of Europe is at the capital
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