My hope is the Fed targets a 3% inflation instead of 2%, says Mohamed El-Erian

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결론: 연준이 2% 대신 3% 인플레이션을 용인해 연착륙을 노려야 한다는 바람이며, 시장이 기대하는 빠른 금리인하와 물가 하락은 과하다는 입장. 현재 경제 상황: 미국 인플레이션 지표는 정점을 지났지만 높은 금리로 저축이 줄어들어 경제가 약화될 것으로 봄. 다만 강한 약세장(경기침체) 여부는 불확실. 시장 기대 비판: 시장은 3월 인하 확률 50%와 내년 5회 인하를 반영하는데 이는 과도한 낙관. 금융여건이 역대 최대 폭으로 완화된 것도 연준의 긴축 기조와 모순. 공급 측면 구조 분석: 과거 10년은 수요 부족이었으나 지금은 공급 유연성 부족이 문제. 에너지 전환, 지정학, 공급망 재편(회복탄력성), 노동시장 경직성이 요인. 2% 목표 비판: 2% 목표를 고수하면 성장 희생과 불평등 악화가 따르므로 3% 목표가 바람직. 연착륙 전망: 시장은 착륙 시 바퀴 닿는 느낌도 없는 '완벽한 연착륙'을 가정하나 실제로는 더 울퉁불퉁할 것. 성장 리스크는 하방, 인플레이션 리스크는 상방. 2% 복귀는 시장 예상보다 훨씬 어려움. 달러 전망: 2024년 달러 강세 재개에 동의. 유럽 등 타 지역의 역풍이 미국보다 커서 ECB가 연준보다 더 많이 인하할 가능성도 있음. 금리 전망 요약: 추가 인상은 없고 내년 하반기 인하가 있겠으나 시장 예상만큼 많지는 않을 것.

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01. let bring in Muhammad oian a chief economic advisor at alons I'm just happy you finally got friendlier towards Bitcoin um at finally did that uh Muhammad right and and you you down in the mid 20s I think you said it was going to get a catch a bid at that point I think yeah but what a bid yeah I mean right hey hey Muhammad so we just heard that the Atlanta fed's at like 1% or something so that 5.2% print um that's like ancient history I guess already or should we view it that way no I wouldn't call it ancient history it's real it has benefited our economy but it was also associated with a one down of savings that's why when you extrapolate forward most people expect the economy to weaken from the 5% which it will but the question is how weak um there is a market romance right now with the softish of soft Landing I think that's probably too much of a romance but it is one that led to the biggest monthly loosening of financial conditions on record think about that the biggest monthly loosening of financial conditions at a time when the FED is telling us that it's premature to talk about lower interest rates yeah but but de facto that that's what we're seeing just do you think the FED got too tight Muhammad yeah i' you've heard me say over and over again that I thought they should have sto before the last hike um I wouldn't go as far as the market to price in a 50% probability of a March cut and five cuts next year unless unless you believe we're going into recession and if you believe we're going into recession then equities shouldn't be where they are I think that what you'll see is the Fed will be very careful also remember the best of the inflation move is behind us after this month so we have one more month of good inflation data and then it gets a lot tougher My Hope as you know Joe is that the fed target the 3% inflation not a 2% inflation and that would allow us to soft land the economy you think 3% is will become the new normal for inflation in the United States Muhammad look I think if you look at the economic Outlook it is an Outlook where Supply is our problem not demand demand was the last decade we had insufficient demand now we have insufficiently flexible Supply and lots of reasons people come on air and talk to you about the energy transition they talk to you about geopolitics determining Supply chains they talk to you about companies being much more concerned with resilience and they also talk to you about the labor market not being as flexible as we'd like it to be so if you put all that together we're looking at the supply side being the constraint in such a world I really worry that a 2% inflation Target means not only sacrifices and growth that we shouldn't make but also sacrifices inequality that we shouldn't make yeah do you uh at at this point Mohammad think that we we're still going to have would you say a soft soft Landing would you softest of all soft Landings that's not so the the softest means what you might as well call it a recession or or is it really oh imagine so imagine you're in a plane and the plane lands without you feeling Wheels hitting the runway that is what the market is assuming is that we're going to land This Plane this complicated plane without even feeling that the wheels have hit the runway that is what's priced in right now if you look across markets that's what's priced in but and what's more I mean it would be unbelievable to to have that do we miss it which way do we miss it I think it's a little bit bumpier I think the the risk for growth is on the downside and the risk for inflation is on the upside um it is very difficult to get back to 2% as quickly as the market thinks we're going to get back to 2% okay and I've seen people say they we're going to see a dollar rally resume in 20 24 do you see that yeah I'm in that camp simply because the rest of the world is facing even greater headwinds than we are so it wouldn't surprise me if by the end of the year the European Central Bank has cut rates more than the FED it would not even though they started later it would not surprise me if they end up cutting more than we do in the United States all right so but in summary have no more hikes but you think Cuts in in the second half of next year or and not as many as as we're prediced as as are being predicted but that's absolutely right that's that's the way you seee okay