The Fed can't be 'anywhere near as stubborn' when it comes to rate cuts: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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Jeremy Siegel은 2024년 시장이 좋은 해가 될 수 있으며 15~20% 상승도 가능하다고 본다. 단, 연준이 금리를 빨리 인하하고 통화량(M2)을 다시 늘려야 한다는 조건부 전망이다. 통화량: M2가 2년 가까이 정체 또는 감소 중이며, 이는 2차대전 이후 가장 긴 기간의 정체다. 실질 성장을 위해서는 통화량 약 5% 성장이 필요하고, 0% 성장은 실업·침체·디플레이션으로 이어질 수 있다고 경고한다. 경제지표: 최근 GDP는 5% 이상으로 강했지만, 애틀랜타 연은 GDPNow는 4분기 성장률을 1.2%로 낮췄다. 실업률이 4%를 넘으면 침체 가능성이 크게 높아진다는 규칙을 언급하며, 아직 완전히 안심할 수 없다고 본다. 연준 전망: 연준이 금리 인하 가능성을 열어두지 않고 너무 오래 긴축을 유지할 것을 우려한다. 금리를 늦게 올린 전례가 있으므로, 인하도 신중하고 점진적으로 해야 한다고 말한다. 파월 의장이 인하 논의를 언급하길 기대한다. 시장 밸류에이션: 대형 기술주(매그니피센트 7)를 제외하면 시장은 이미 경미한 침체 수준으로 가격이 매겨져 있다. 중소형주는 PER 11~13배 수준이다. 연준이 실수하면 하락폭은 5~7% 정도일 수 있다고 본다. 리스크: 연준이 3분기나 4분기까지 인하하지 않으면 침체와 평탄한 증시가 나타날 수 있다.

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01. promise Jeremy seagull let's get to him now and talk about the markets the major averag is riding five weeks of uh of wins joining us now is Jeremy seagull upen Wharton School of Business professor and and your point uh Jeremy is that the money supply hasn't grown for two years uh and the one risk to a what you think is a pretty good year uh in 2024 you think 15 to 20% possible as long as the FED Cuts sooner rather than later which I think at least implies to me that you think they've gone too far already I I'm worried they have I mean the the money supply was you know had hit bottom in April began to increase again uh but later in the fall began decreasing um a continued QT May force it to continue to decrease and you can't really have a growing economy when the M2 money supply is decreasing I mean this is the longest period of time of stagnant money supply since World War II so yeah that does give me concern um I could see a real booming year 2024 If the Fed you know resumes that growth of money supply we need 5% growth of money supply to hit decent real growth and the 2% inflation Target 0% growth money supply means unemployment recession and and deflation truth fory just can't make you happy on the money supply I mean there was a time where it was growing so hey Phil what's going on yeah well the money supply explod you know at at the pandemic March 20 no March 2020 we had the biggest explosion of the money supply that we'd ever seen you know in in 150e history and and that's why I had predicted we're going to just have a lot of inflation but then two years later how stopped it and it stopped the inflation never not decrease it yeah you never we had too much money supply now we don't have enough we got to get it just right so so jimy I mean you really wanted it's already almost 2024 you're talking about first quarter what month in the first quarter do you want the FED to actually cut because we just had a 5% print 5% plus uh on GDP that that just doesn't people that aren't watching it that closely can't imagine that we already need to cut when you know and what's unemployment it's remember that you know as you as you said Joe I mean that's July August September that's really history 5.2% and as you said yourself I mean the Atlanta GD uh Atlanta fed just lowered this quarter to 1.2% that's a that would be the lowest quarter of this year and that's if we have a decent uh Christmas we'll see whether the sales hold up so we've already decreased by 75% the growth rate from that third quarter and um you know we we'll take a I mean we got a lot of important data this week certainly the uh employment report on Friday probably will show growth because we've got workers coming back from the UAW strike but uh if that unemployment rate goes above 4% we trigger rules that have said that uh unemployment rising at half a percent from its low mean that the likelihood of recession really incre Ines dramatically so we're not totally out of the woods on that score yet well I just wonder what you in you what do you there's what you want to happen what you think's going to happen you think the FED is going to have an we saw it happen on the way on the way into this in terms of staying out of of raising rates for too long do you think they're going to stay too long you think they're going to be stubborn that that's that's the worry I mean you know they were way too late on raising are they going to be you know I mean I hope at this meeting uh that chairman P will finally acknowledge we're talking about it not that we're doing it but we're talking about which you remember in the November meeting he actually ruled oh we're not even talking about L they should be talking about it not that they're doing it but that should be a you know part of the conversation given the softness of the data that we've honestly seen over over the last uh four week again I'm not saying you know recession is inevitable on the horizon I'm saying they've got to be two-sided they've got to talk about it um they can't be anywhere near as stubborn as they were on raising rates as they will have to be on lowering rates uh I think in 2024 if they cut will we have a soft Landing will they will they actually be able to that's the biggest land to land that that plane perfectly at three-point Landing it's the biggest chance for that soft Landing which they desire in my opinion if they cut rates it's totally different than the 1970s where you know as I had mentioned money supply went up every single month during that decade we don't have that situation they don't have to worry about sparking another inflationary cycle that's gone they really do need to start thinking about getting money supply up to a reasonable level that sustains growth in 2024 if um let's say they don't cut they don't cut till third quarter fourth quarter you figure that means uh that means a recession and that means that the market does does what stays flat nothing I mean I I mean outside very honestly I think outside the Magnificent 7 the market is almost priced for a mild recession I mean we take a look at small and midcap stocks selling 11 12 13 times earnings that's mild recession levels already um so I don't you know yeah there'll probably be a decline in the market but it's not going to be a big decline if they make a a fatal mistake so on the downside I think you know you probably have five six seven percent on the upside as I say I think 15 or 20 they start lowering it get that money supply up 2024 could be really be an excellent year