Wedbush's Dan Ives on why tech is at the start of a new bull market

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Dan Ives는 2024년 기술주가 새로운 강세장의 시작이라고 보며 기술주가 최소 20% 이상 오를 것으로 전망한다. 핵심 주장: AI 지출이 2023년 이후에도 가속되며, 엔비디아·마이크로소프트를 넘어 소프트웨어·반도체·사이버보안 전반으로 확산된다고 본다. 이를 1995년 인터넷 붐에 비유한다. 근거 수치: 2024년 기술주 상승률 기대치는 최소 20% 이상이다. AI 사용 사례는 3개월 전 15개에서 80개 이상으로 늘었다고 주장한다. 경기침체 우려: 베어(하락론자)들이 금리와 경기침체에 집착해 왔으나 침체 신호를 찾기 어렵다고 반박한다. 이번 상승은 대형 기술주에서 소프트웨어·반도체·중소형주로 확대될 것이라고 본다. 버블 논쟁: 실제 AI 활용 사례는 제한적이라는 질문에 대해 과거 1990년대 후반 버블을 경험했지만 지금의 추세는 실재한다고 반박한다. 언급 종목과 방향: 팔로알토네트웍스를 사이버보안 최선호주로 꼽으며 설치 기반의 클라우드 이동이 성장 초입이라고 본다. 팔란티어는 AI 순수 플레이로 평가하며 정부·군 사업이 기업 시장으로 확산되는 중이라고 본다. 짐스콜(zscaler), 크라우드스트라이크, 몽고DB, 스노우플레이크, 애플, 마이크로소프트, 구글도 언급되었다. 리스크: 베어들의 경기침체 논리와 AI 버블 가능성이 주요 반론으로 제시되었다. 출연자 전망: 2024년 기술주 전반 상승(최소 20% 이상)을 낙관한다.

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01. out with a new note looking ahead to 2024 give us a sense where does spending when it comes to Tech and specifically AI where does it go next year after this boom in 2023 I I think it accelerates because what we're really now seeing is a trillion dollars of spend is hitting the shores of tech it's not just Nvidia and Microsoft so I when I look at software chips across the board I believe it's the start of a new tech bull market and we believe next year tech stocks are up at least 20% plus it's AI it's cyber security it's software I think this is just a start so Dan in all fairness we've heard you say this a number of times um you've continued to be very bullish on Tech from the start of this year and you've been right um but aren't there some headwinds going into next year I mean possibility of recession um other things I mean are there any things that you think could slow down this run I in my opinion no and look I think that's where the Bears have been misguided this year is that continuing to kind of focus on the 10-year fed recession unless there's a telescope it's hard to find that recession I look at what I believe from all the work that we do it's the biggest Tech transformation in 30 years really in terms of AI and this is to me it's a 1995 moment and the difference now with this new note going into next year I don't believe it stops I think tech stocks this continues but I think it's going to be broader it's not just going to be big Tech it's going to be software chips small midcap and in my opin a lot of the Bears they just go back into hibernation mode any concerns about this possibly being a bubble I mean we've seen a lot of talk about AI almost everybody's an AI company right now but the actual use cases have been generally somewhat limited yeah I think that's probably that's one of the biggest maybe debates look for all the work that we do around the world in AI we have over 80 use cases for AI 3 months ago is 15 and I think the difference is that look for someone like myself covered Texans late 990s I've seen a lot of bubbles this is as real of his trending that we've seen going back to what I view 30 years and that's why you look at names like Palante tier mongod DB snowflake you know and of course in the trophy case in Redmond all right so you're leading me into your note you gave us some picks um some of those picks include pal Alto paler zscaler mongod mongodb in addition to Apple Microsoft and Google I want to dig in on on one of the cybercity names here pal alel Networks um why do you see that company being a big beneficiary where so many companies are getting into security kind of stepping on their toes yeah I think if you look what the test and what they've done in pal outo it's the install base and now they're moving to the cloud I think we're only in the second third inning of that growth story playing out and if you look at pal out though I think this is really one where the man is Asian they're probably only 10% through so when I look out you have names like zscale or crowd strike but I continue view as a double table Pounders pow out it's been our top pick in cyber security and I think anytime people go against that they continue to prove then they say is wrong the other thing I want to ask you about is palente tier um paler is very closely tied to government work and also working with militaries the US military they've also been very open that they support Israel and the Israeli military do you believe that the Tailwind for them is is it strictly from AI commercial customers or do you think it comes more from their government and Military Work yeah it's great but and that's why we view them as the messy of AI because what they're doing now is that they take that government work that they've done around the world for you know for many years into the Enterprise in my view they are probably the purest play AI name in the market so now What's happen we talk about those use cases paler they're getting the call front and center in these names and that's why I think the market continues to underestimate what's happening on the Enterprise I think this is just started I view it as sort of The Golden Child of AI