저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 최근 클라우드·스트리밍 급등 후 대형 펀드 차익실현과 ETF 매도가 겹쳐 조정이 나오고 있으며, 시장이 충분히 공포를 느끼지 않았으니 저가 매수는 아직 이르다는 견해. 시장 상황: 다우 268포인트 하락, 클라우드·기술주 중심 약세. 엔비디아 등 최근 강세 종목도 동반 하락. ETF 매도 구조: 클라우드 관련 ETF 매도가 종목 전체를 끌어내리는 구조이며, 매수세는 얇다. 세일즈포스는 2014년 이후 여러 차례 다일 또는 다주 단위로 큰 폭 하락한 전례가 있어 2~3일 이상 조정이 나올 수 있다고 봄. 세일즈포스 실적 발표를 앞두고 신중 접근 권고. 로쿠(Roku): 모건스탠리가 매도로 하향해 15% 급락. 과열 신호로 해석. 중국 변수: 1단계 무역합의 기대가 꺾였고, 홍콩인권법 서명으로 중국이 양보에 부정적. 12월 15일 관세 발효 가능성 언급. 엔비디아(멜라녹스 인수 승인), 애플, 보잉 등에 영향 우려. 보잉은 737 맥스 보상 부담으로 추가 하락 가능성 언급. 버크셔·옥시덴탈: 버핏의 옥시 투자 조건은 유리하나 회사 부채 부담과 가격 과다 지적. 향후 전망: 과도한 낙관이 꺾이며 건강한 조정이 필요하다는 입장. 공포가 커진 뒤 저가 매수 기회를 노리라는 메시지. 출연자 전망: 단기 조정은 이어질 가능성이 높고, 세일즈포스 등은 바닥 확인 전 섣불리 매수하지 말 것을 권함.
다듬은 글
ere money welcome to Kramer I'll be educate teacher put days like today in context call me 173cm you see tweet me at Jim Kramer all right we got a nasty sell-off today all right the Dow lost 268 points SB decline point 86% probably the most important now as they fell 1.1 2% yep yep the worst-hit tech especially the cloud place that were worried hired not that long ago they were crushed in the worst part I don't think that the selling is over yep anything that helps enterprises harness the power of the cloud had been on fire coming into today's session along with anything related to streaming content and that's because of the wildly successful Disney Plus that new over-the-top service they've been the big winners for several weeks ever since Nvidia and Splunk reported great course now though the whole complex is selling off relentlessly including the stock of Nvidia itself what's driving this newfound weakness and how long will it last isn't that what you want to know well I'm gonna walk you through all the reasons so you know what's ahead first it's the beginning of a new month alright and you know what in almost every new month we especially after a very big run we get a period where large funds decided to take something off the table it's not a dumb idea given that no one was expecting this kind of selling witnessed the cruellest pajama traders as of last night this morning who were still buying to be weird no it's hard to find the other side of the trade when you're selling there's so many ETFs that contain these cloud names that it's possible from one or two of them to bring down the whole group it's ridiculous it is the tail wagging the dog but it happens we've seen it regularly since the software-as-a-service meltdown in april of 2014 now you have to be careful because these kinds of moves can be brutal and more important they can be longer lasting than the typical dip you dip buyers focus in 2014 the whole group got hammered led by Salesforce which plunge from $67 to 48 given that Salesforce reports tomorrow I recommend proceeding with caution you know I love this company in order to know that I like it when a stock pulls back going into ernie's my first instance to say the bars now gotten lowered it's been D rest but now I worry that it may be rolling over along with the whole cloud cover regardless how well it's doing and that worries me even though again I'm a big fan of Salesforce and it is a key position for my child will trust for a long time and you can follow along by joining the action alerts plus calm Club where I'm going to overwhelm you with bones just about this situation well if the stock to sales forces experienced four major decline since 2014 for the only not one of them ended in a day they were all multi-day or even multi-week shellacking including the one we saw earlier this year if you're nimble enough to be a trader then I actually would lighten up here then buy it back at a lower level but for most people that's a bad piece of advice I think you should stick with the food stick with it through the pain because you never know if you'll be fast enough to actually get back in a better price now the story here is still faint actually take a look at print print out the store from 2008 here and you'll see you won't even be able to see the clients like the one I'm talking about we just checked in with Salesforce at the big for you in force conference two weeks ago and then they told me incredible story but that won't protect the short term of turbulence again it may not I'm just concerned I'm concerned because this cloud sell-off looks like the real deal remember it's not the ETF driven selling not that it's so heavy it's that the buying is so thin think of ETF selling is being like a machine while single stock buying is more like a bolt-action rifle the cop with the rifle simply doesn't stand a chance - until the machine guns run out of ammo typically that takes two or three days for the stocks to get low enough that the selling dries up but it could be like that there'll be some stocks that will hit a bottom three days from now but I'm just I'm just concerned for you second- catalyst did you see a stock a row cooter now here's the company that's become the face of cord-cutting Roku's technology lets you stream video over the Internet traffic to your television they make it easy to watch something like that Disney Plus I mentioned on the big suite it's the best way to get your baby oh it effects now Roku has been downgraded many times before in the last three months you know where the stock was always able to bounce back even intraday until today Morgan Stanley downgraded to a sell her they called the recent rally unsustainable and that call resonated which is why that stock plummeted 15% today when a stock that's mr.
endless assaults gets pulverized by a sell accommodation well that's a sign of what I call over extension some traders believe Roku's the key to this market believe it or not meaning they take their cue from the action in this one and it actually was the proximate cause of today's vicious decline third- catalyst oh boy I know you're sick of it but it's China typically the cloud and streaming stocks don't really react to news about the trade war but today was an exception going to the weekend there was a widespread belief that we would have a Phase one trade deal with the Chinese lock down a deal that might have opened up their mortgages some of our software companies when the Chinese government said that there need to be some roll backs of the towers though before we can have serious talks well this was taking this as a sign that frankly I don't care about it anymore that's right they don't care about making a deal is that true my understanding is that until President Trump sign this Hong Kong ago which imposes sanctions on Chinese officials who are responsible for human rights abuses we basically had a workable deal to stave off the upcoming December trade Ickes then the Hong Kong bill threw everything out of whack you might think this has nothing to do with the trade war but the Chinese view innocent escalation now they want the terrorists rollback and I think that's very unlikely not when the president's actually increasing steel tariffs on Argentina and Brazil ostensibly because of currency weakness but really I think to prevent them from buying cheap I steal from China and then dumping it here which is why that was so significant and that's why the market went down if you're starting to hit up my guess the Chinese would rather take their chances and wait for the election next year if they well and hope that they get a more amenable president like Joe Biden who's more of a globalist than Trump I think they're making a mistake they congested you usually get four more years of Trump or someone even tougher on China like warrant Elizabeth Warren because she's had it with the Chinese to spoiling the earth and no tariff gets him rid of that once China's in play we have the usual tech suspects selling about Nvidia we needed me know it needs to close the Mellanox acquisition race numbers Chinese are blocking so far Apple needs the tread trade talks to go smoothly so they don't get caught in the crossfire doesn't really matter about all that was the air pods well how about that story the financial technology companies well they're all hoping they're gonna get a crack at the Chinese market of course China hurt more than just tech this was a market why problem boeing seemed to trade in lockstep with the trade talks and has to get close to the end of the year i'm starting to wonder there'll be plenty of people who are thinking wait a second how the heck can this company make good on all the payments the airlines they're asking for as reparations for the 737 max fiasco remember we had to I had Southwest arrow on a sweltering the streets they said they owe money we had American all money the stock got hit hard today I think the Boeing stock may actually be in a rollover face my advice these squalls of selling take multiple days to work through the system you almost never just get one day I think the people are simply taking profits to lock in their gains have too many winners to finish trimming their positions in just one session the pattern of sales force and the other cloud Kings is to get hit for at least three days if not longer I'm betting president Trump's tariff fights go into effect on December 15th now which won't be good for the stock market at the end of the day we got too complacent once we made it through the always tough month of the set of October investors sometimes get a little giddy assuming they had nothing left to worry about the feds on the right track we seem to be on the cusp of trade do we good quarters from Splunk in Nvidia that allowed the entire cloud core to go higher and it was too good to be true people we needed and need a shakeout we needed some sellers to instill a reasonable amount of fear and worry I think we're on our way their bottom line we got hammered today okay and it was much more of a hammering than even the averages look like because there's not enough negativity once people start worrying again stocks will come down to more reasonable levels and then you can pounce but we're not there yet and I don't think you should jump the gun Richard in New York Richard I'm good but you're never you good my question today is why I'm frustrated maintain significant capital stake in Occidental in spite of its debt Laden balance sheet Buffett received very favorable terms for this capital infusion well it's a good business deal for Buffett can this fake change the downward trend of the stock or debt exposure just to glaze well I think he you know he has first dibs I think they paid too much oxy but I do think that the companies got the cash flow I just don't like to stop and I don't like how they gave they took that deal from Buffett rather than just go to a bank they might defend that but there's so many people I talk to in banking who find it too hard to defend let's go to Stephen and Tennessee Stephen Black Friday random numbers especially from ecommerce owned a civility provided commerce solutions my whole bunch of S&P 500 companies 700 million dollar reason failed asset insider prize you know substrate is just a budget stocking stuffer for my portfolio Christmas perfect it takes my kids article what you think a big knee goes wow you actually thought of it longer than I would I think this is a stock that many people have tried to catch the bottom in that's why I look like a butcher block to you I mean I did some cooking on Thursday but I would never let those knives near me and I wouldn't let the knives near I would fear PPI a couple things president tweeting again feds gotta move because of the stronger dollar totally unhelpful we got Kupa reporting it's right in the cloud group it was a great quarter it's getting hit my native theories playing out here all right today so up was prompted by too much complacency I think we're in an early days of a much needed shakeout o matic tonight I'm lying to sell stocks that you may have miss I'll tell you the names and why they're soaring then what's the fear index signaling and going into 2020 I'm going off the charts to play that you're not go like it and the security software space is chock full of sexy new names that you can use to play the secular trend I'm on one old standby that I have light for a long time don't miss my exclusive with cyber are and T
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