저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 래리 윌리엄스의 기술적 지표를 근거로 단기 조정 가능성이 크니 반등 시 매도(현금 확보)를 고려하라는 취지. 윌리엄스 지표: VIX 사이클 예측상 2월 11일 이후 VIX 상승 지속 전망, S&P500은 약 80일 단기 사이클상 3월 초까지 하방 압력 예상. 달러인덱스: 달러 약세가 선행 지표로 작용해 최근 하락 중이며 증시도 뒤따르는 흐름. 금 강세와 함께 안전자산 이동 신호로 해석. CFTC 대형 투기자 포지션: 최근 주 S&P 선물 순포지션이 뚜렷하게 매도 방향으로 전환, 기관 자금의 경계 신호. 결론적으로 1분기 내내 증시 압박 가능성, 반등 시 비중 축소 권고. 장기 강세장 논리는 유지. 출연자 전망: 크레이머 본인도 단기 조정 우려를 표명하며 일부 현금화 중이라고 밝힘. 사우디 아람코 IPO 및 사이버보안(사이버아크) 관련 언급은 투자 대상 권유 성격.
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it's rough day like today we got word how are we children we've had a spectacular bull run everybody knows that over the past few months so do we take this day in stride or some sort of garden-variety profit dating or do we need to be more concerned I'm always concerned about the latter see it moments like this you know what's good is I find it very helpful to take a step back and look at things to a more quantitative lens and that's why tonight we got to go off the charts special Monday edition with the help of the legendary Larry Williams he's a technician who's been trading futures commodities and stocks since I was a kid Williams is a nearly mythical figure on Wall Street he's written almost a dozen book he's got his own website I really trade calm and he's created a slew of technical indicators many of which are named after him that we use all the time here over the summer when the market was getting slammed we checked in with Williams he told us the negativity was peaking said it was time to go bullish Wow he nailed it as the average is quickly made a remarkable comeback then we spoke with him again three weeks ago when expressed cautious optimism tell us the averages had more room to run but as we got closer to the end of the year the move was likely to run out of steam so then the question is how close the end of year are we Williams thinks right now is what's happening right now the decline he thinks the tide is turning and it's headed a little head of schedule with investors increasingly turning bearish and he predicts the Bears will have the run of the place get this through mid-february that said he still thinks we could rebound from these levels but you know what he's recommending selling into any strength even as he's still not backing away from long term bull market thesis look at this let's take a look at the action in the CBOE Volatility Index nuts a fear index which is it's a gauge that does a great job of reflecting the overall level of terror in the marketplace when the VIX goes down that means investors are feeling confident when it goes up that's usually a sign of fear today for example chup nearly 17 percent this is remarkable move and I know I've got some other people were feeling this too that we're going to talk about tomorrow cuz I have to tell you this was very disconcerting to me and I got to spend more time on it than usual Williams likes the VIX because it captures the raw emotions of investors it gives you a read on the animal spirits the market you also believes there's a cycle to volatility which is why he tries to forecast that cycle based on the vixx's past behavior and that's the red line in this chart okay his VIX forecast look at this spike this may sound like he's making stuff up out of whole cloth but there's a ton of rigor involved in the process the VIX forecast is one of the reasons Williams was able to call the bottom in August right now based on the volatility cycle he's anticipating a sustained upturn in the VIX which tends to be very bad for the sp500 based on his forecast the volatility index should keep rising from February 11 the day after my birthday not that that's relevant in other words investors are starting to turn bearish right here and Williams especially to stay that way for the next couple of months well I would be certainly different from what a lot of people are talking about it's not just index I want you take a look at this chart of the S&P 500 where Williams has done the same kind of analysis based on this cycle forecast you'd expect the SP to peak right about now the strongest short-term cycle at here has last for about 80 days and it suggests the mark will be under pressure to the beginning of March so here we go that's where we are daunting isn't it look at that right here while these cycles can be very useful for giving you hints about the overall direction of the market Williams likes to confirm them by digging even deeper into the technicals I told this guy's good for example why don't you take a look at the short-term chart of the S&P 500 with the dollar index which measures the strength of the dollar versus a basket of foreign currencies according to Williams the dollar index tends to be a good leading indicator of what will happen to stock prices so he's pushed it forward in time for weeks on this chart to illustrate that correlation while a weak greenback is good for American exporters near-term weakness in the dollar does seem to foreshadow weakness in the stock market so here's the black stock market okay he's remember he's 40 he's pulling it forward to show you what's gonna happen and lately with Dollar Index has sold off now the averages appear to be following suit that may be one of the reasons that gold the price of Goldsmith screaming higher on Friday you know I like gold and that's perhaps as a result of full list of flight from stocks Williams is long gold he important he told that that's so you know that's full disclosure and you know I always think it's good to have some exposure to precious metal as an insurance policy against exactly the kind of thing he's predicting remember we had AG Neko where you go on a couple weeks out how much I like that Shawn boy finally there's the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's commitment of traders report and this is called the khat report that's what it's short for every week the CFTC releases data on the net positions of small speculators large speculators and commercial hedgers we care about the large speculators institutional money so take a look at this chart of the S&P futures with the commitment of traders data you can see that they're taking a really negative turn here just in the blue most recent weeks this is concrete proof that money managers are getting more cautious if they're getting more questions you don't want to necessarily take the other side I know a lot of people say oh I want to take the other side no this is about selling ok this is indicating selling pressure coming put it all together and Williams thinks we are about to get pretty ugly here we could have one more bounce before the negativity fully takes over but he thinks you should use any strength to ring the register you know I agree with him that we were due for a shakeout I said that in the Morning Show and since I expect the President to raise his tariffs on China in two weeks it might take a little while for the pain to unfold here's the bottom line the charge is interpreted by Larry Williams suggest that the markets animal spirits are turning from bullish to bearish at least for the next few months and he thinks you should try to sidestep the pain here remember I'm going to another VIX expert tomorrow because this was so negative I'm not influencing that person I just got to know before I tell you I am concerned beyond where I am now my view we did get too complacent stocks did need to come down to more enticing levels but I think that may happen faster than Williams expects and not as deep as he says even as he most certainly regards the upcoming to climb once again as a correction in a long term bull market which he said to me twice because he did not want people to freak out because he doesn't think this is the end I want to go to David Illinois Dave dr.
Cranmer yes my good man friend Bob well thank you Dave same to you and your family Dolphins Jim within a few weeks why do you hurt me I said my friend Jim within a few weeks the most profitable company on earth will be trading on the Saudi stock exchange of course I'm talking about Saudi Aramco analysts anticipate it will raise more money on its IPO than current record-holder Alibaba 25 billion but in 2014 ok US IPO market has been struggling of late with disappointments from uber and lyft beyond me zoom video and most recently with we work so Jim how do you see this historic and pending IPO impacting the US IPO much you know David so weird they're they're raising so little money off the actual deal even though there's a large size that I think it's not gonna have the impact we fought I do know they want to diversify away from oil I think they want a currency to do that of course we have to stay away from this only because we stay away from anything fossil fuel because they're not working thank you for calling me doctor let's go to Adam oh we're talking about a state the Nigerian state in Minnesota Adam mr.
Kramer yes Lou yeah for Minnesota pleasure speaking with you I was watching your show last week about the Bulls the Bears and with the stock market doing so well not being a pig I know I want to be a pig and I want to take some profits my question is what do you recommend I do with the profits so I put him in back in the market or into no no look I you know we have a club bachelors plus.com Club we have raised about three hundred and fifty thousand dollars was just a lot of money and what are we doing that money side line side lie why because we to agree with Larry Williams that short term thinks it would be turbulent it's just that I think short term is shorter term then Larry does but Larry is the king and I had to tell you what he's thinking again tomorrow alternatives but maybe the guy agrees with them that's how concerned I am I don't want to panic in market indicators are sailing the degree of investor bearishness that could carry over into the next few months according to Williams might take hey look it's about time stock seemed down the more attractive levels but I'm not Kaplan yet unless I take more money out first and that's for the trust I can't trade stocks much more made money at Sabra security spending suspected exceed one trillion dollars over the next five years as cyberattacks become more prevalent in a company like cyber-ark protect your data and your portfolio from the Russians from the North Koreans from the Chinese all of them trying to disguise each other I'm gonna talk to CEO then it's a company whose shares have more than doubled this year and effectively quintupled since the end of 2017 I'll reveal this under the radar name just ahead
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