Wharton's Jeremy Siegel: I do think we're going to have a year-end rally in 2023

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결론: 시장은 연말 랠리 가능성이 크며, 10월 저점 이후 장기 수익률은 양호하다는 낙관적 견해. 주요 주장: 지난 25년간 11월은 연중 두 번째로 좋은 달이며, 2023년 연말 랠리를 기대한다. 연준은 이번 회의에서 동결하고 문을 열어두는 수준일 것으로 봤다. 시장 상황: S&P500은 고점 대비 약 10% 하락해 조정 구간에 진입했고, 나스닥은 작년 10월 저점에서 약 15% 위에 있다. 과거 50년 데이터상 10월 저점 이후 1·2·5·10년 수익률이 매우 양호했다고 판단한다. 밸류에이션: 선행 PER 약 16.5배, 매그니피센트7 제외 시 약 14배, 중소형주는 11~13배로 역사적 저점 수준이다. 2024년 이익 감소 기대가 과거보다 덜 나타나고 있다. 금리와 성장: 10년물 실질금리는 약 5.25% 근처 고점일 수 있으며, 높은 실질금리는 내년 성장 기대를 반영한다. 다만 높은 이익이 주가에 선반영되며 기업·개인 부채 부담으로 일시적 소화 과정이 있을 수 있다. 2.5% 수준 실질금리는 과거 평균이며 현재 금리는 기업 확장을 크게 막을 수준이 아니다. 과거 비교: 2000년 PER 30배 시절과 달리 현재 밸류에이션은 절반 수준이라 강세 근거로 제시. 리스크·조건: 10월 저점 유지가 전제이며, 금리 상승 부담과 부채 만기 도래가 단기 변동성 요인. 출연자 전망: S&P500은 최근 고점을 갱신하지 못했으나 내년에 신고점 도달 가능성이 높다고 봤다. 진행자는 '매수 기회'로 마무리.

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01. big week for the markets get to a guy who but you were embarrassed for a while Jeremy seagull two-day meeting is going to kick off let's bring in uh Mr Wharton Jeremy seagull who you had the professor emeritus oh we better say that at uh at University of Pennsylvania is Wharton School of Business we're going to preview the week and it's unfair to call you a perable you were bearish for a little while but in your lifetime if it was 800 in 1982 and we're now you know where we are in the the 30,000 plus it PID to be bullish most of the time I think Jeremy oh it pays to be bullish long term all the time right in the stock big surprise I'm not in uh uh favor of will Mike Wilson's prediction here uh you think we will rally I saw that yeah yeah I mean I I in a way I say thank goodness October is nearly over actually in the last 25 years I looked up the data November is the second best month of the year just slightly behind April which is the first best month so I I do think we're going to have a a year-end rally over here uh coming up um uh I agree with Roger I uh Ferguson I I heard him earlier on your show I mean the FED is is is certainly not going to do anything on Wednesday and they're gonna leave the door open I think it's it's you know they're going to just say the evolving data you know we still have six more weeks until the the next meeting that there's no dots this meeting so we don't know you know exactly what all the fomc members are going to be thinking but uh it's basically going to be a leave the door open so I don't know if we're going to get all that much extra information as far as that's concerned but um I I was looking at the we're you know we're 10% off the low we just entered correction territory uh for the S&P we did it a few days earlier for Nasdaq uh we're 15% off of that October low of last year and I went back 50 years and if that October low holds which I very strongly believe that it will um returns in the market over the next one two five 10 years are are very very good in other words if you can invest 15% off of a bare Market low which is what we had a year ago your subsequent returns have um uh exceeded the market by quite a margin yeah I've seen people that that uh have gotten 15% off a low and then you know some I can remember the the actual individual himself and at the time I said you know what it's a you you just called it a multi-year low and you're you're getting bearish 15% off the low that that's like stupid right and and and and as it turned out it did go much much further so um to you got to let your profits run and 15% isn't that much off a low Jeremy right I mean more persuasive than technicals or calendars we're 16 and a half times next year's earnings and he talks about fading earnings expectations actually 2024 is holding in better than historically as time goes on usually uh there's a phase and uh you know that 16 and a half includes the Magnificent Seven you get out of that and you're really at about 14 times earnings 13 you get to the mid and small capap you're 11 and 12 I mean these are historical lows um you know you know like we we saw back in the 80s when you know the the 10e was uh you know 12 and 14% uh I think we're pretty well near the the top on the 10year maybe five and a quarter but we're not getting up to those levels and that's the only time that we really saw any anything that was like singled digit uh PE ratios uh exclude that period of time in your 177 18 1920 so I you know I think valuation is is persuasive I actually think growth is going to be better next year and I in fact think the higher real interest rates that we've seen is actually more optimism about growth in 2024 and that's going to pressure you know the stock market because has to Discount those higher earnings but I think those higher earnings are going to come through you would that's another thing Jeremy you would think there will will be uh you know debt will come due for for companies and people that that thought rates were never going to go up and that will be there will be some indigestion but we're just getting back to to what a normal rate of return is I mean businesses and people have done F have done fine multi-year periods with interest rates where they are right now this should not be choking off uh business expansion or business formation or anything at 5% right I mean I mean 2 and a half% is pretty much the average of of what those 10year tips bonds have been actually when they were floated in 97 it was three and a half they went up to four and a half in 2000 um and the stock market hit 30 price earnings ratio double the level today which I thought was crazy and that's when I really for the first time turned very bearish uh there in 2000 but we're a world of difference right now uh with be ratios half that number and and real yield substantially below um I think we're and the S&P we haven't had a high in a while we haven't had an all-time high in a while and we've been consolidating and turning around and maybe that you figure that happens next year I definitely think that does happen next year yeah okay all right well then then you can buy