Buyers are hesitant in view of what's happening to the supply of government debt: Mohamed El-Erian

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미국 경제는 여전히 세계 성장 엔진이지만 2024년 경기침체 우려는 남아 있으며, 채권시장 변동성과 국채 수급 불안이 핵심 리스크다. 미국 2분기 GDP 2.1% 수준이 예상되며, 미국이 선진국 중 성장률이 가장 높다는 점(미국 예외주의)이 확인될 것이라고 봄. 다만 이를 2024년 안정의 신호로 보기는 어렵다고 경고. 2024년 초~말 경기둔화 우려: 저축 소진(Rundown)과 금리 상승이 기업·정부·가계·연준 모두에 부담이 된다고 평가. 국채금리 변동성이 주식시장을 좌우하는 상황. 금리 앵커(경제·정책·기술적)가 모두 상실됐다고 진단. 수급 측면에서 연준의 순매도(QT)와 정부의 국채 발행 증가가 지속되며, 누가 국채를 살지가 핵심 질문이라고 지적. 매수자들이 주저하는 것은 합리적이라고 봄. 10년물 금리는 중동 분쟁 이전 4.80%에서 현재 4.97%로 상승했으며, 안전자산 쏠림이 나타나지 않는 점이 이례적이라고 분석. 연준이 고금리를 장기간 유지할 것으로 보나, 경기둔화와 시장 충격이 겹치면 금리는 하락할 수 있다고 전망. 다만 QT 조정은 쉽지 않고 연준은 시장 급변을 피하려 할 것이라고 봄. 다음 주 연준 기자회견에서 QT 유연성에 대해 질문할 필요가 있다고 언급. 신간 'Permacrisis'에서 제시한 해법: 포용적·지속가능한 성장모델 전환, 정책 실수 방지, 글로벌 협력 강화. 세 가지 모두 기술적으로 실현 가능하며 정치적 리더십이 관건이라고 주장.

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01. investors are paying close attention to the slide in technology stocks and the volatility in the treasury markets and joining us right now to talk more about that is Mohamed L Aran he is chief economic adviser at Alan he's also the and the co-author of the new book permac crisis a plan to fix a fractured World Muhammad let's just talk first of all about the economy because we've got the GDP coming out in just about I don't know less than an hour's time from now that's expected to be a strong number but there are so many questions swirling about the economy where where do you think we stand right now morning Becky I think the number is going to highlight two things one is US exceptionalism continues not only is it going to be double more than double the weight of 2.1% for second quarter but it outpaces all other advanced economies the US has been the growth engine for the world it also highlights the challenges the FED faces but what we should not do is take this as a signal of the all clear for 2024 um you know as you know I've always pushed back on the notion that we would have a recession in 2023 I'm a little bit worried about 2024 early 2024 late 2024 how do you see this playing out it's hard to tell I mean we have first The Rundown in savings that's the big issue secondly what's been happening in the interest rate Market is really problematic it's proba atic for businesses it's problematic for governments for the FED it's problematic for households and that is a significant headwind to economic activity okay let's let's talk about the volatility we've seen in the treasury market because that's been dictating the stock market moves lately too um where do you think the direction is headed where what what happens next in terms of the the yields and why so we know know two things for sure one is that we've lost the anchors to that market we've lost the economic anchor we've lost the policy anchor and we've lost the technical anchor second when it comes to simple supply and demand there's two things that are here and are going to stay here the FED being a net seller and the government issuing more debt so the question mark and you saw that in the auctions yesterday is who's going to buy and that question about buyers isn't going to go away anytime soon you'll hear all sorts of images of catching a falling knife and and things like that and it is a problem because buyers are hesitant and they should be hesitant in view of what's happening to the supply of government debt I I I'll give you a couple of points of push back on that first of all people are reluctant to be buyers governments are reluctant to be buyers unless they look at the potential for conflict around the globe geopolitics May Dominate and push them to a position where they say we're looking for a safe Safe Haven the US Treasury is still going to be that correct it should be that but let me give you some numbers before the conflict started in the Middle East the 10year treasury was at 480 today it's at 497 and we still face the risk of um escalation of that crisis you know there's been two big puzzles and they speak to how unsettling the volatility the US Treasury has been one is you haven't had it been the safe haven we haven't seen the flight to Quality and the flight to safety that you would expect given what's happening in the world the second thing that's that's equally counterintuitive is you have people talking about Bitcoins about Equity being the safe asset because they've lost confidence in government bonds being the safe assets because of the nature of this interest rate risk so yes it should be the safe haven it should have already benefited but the reality is that the 10-year yield today is a good 17 basis points higher than it was before this latest conflict erupted Mohammad If the Fed says it's going to keep rates higher for longer and I believe them if they think that inflation is still a problem that they will not lower rates but if push comes to shove and there's nobody else buying treasuries I I dispute your first point your first given which is that the FED is is going to be a seller of treasuries I just think if push comes to shove they would be more likely to stop selling treasuries than they would be to uh lower rates that that's a possibility um the question mark will be does we do we have both economic weakening and do we have some sort of scare about a market accident if we have those two things then rates will come down um look messing around with QT is not that simple what the FED has wanted what the ECB wants what all central banks want is that the reduction in balance sheet be like watching paint dry predictable gradual nothing to see there that's what they want they want that but they also want markets to not react in a horrible upheaval and I I don't know which one would win out if those if those issues all came to a head so we have a press conference next week that would be a great question to ask Steve okay as to as to how flexible is the approach to QT right now Muhammad your new book is permac Crisis a plan to fix a fractured World we've got 40 seconds left how do you fix a fractured world you fix three things that are all fixable I mean this is a book that's full of Hope one is you you alter the growth models to grow more inclusively and respectful of the of the planet two you stop making these policy mistakes that we've made and third and perhaps most difficult is to try to enhance cooperation Global cooperation where there is a global challenge these are feasible there are engineering solutions for all three we just need the political leadership