Stocks are clearly the place to be if we get stronger growth, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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결론: 생산성 주도 성장이 이어진다면 주식이 채권보다 유리하며, 지정학 리스크는 매수 기회로 본다. 성장·생산성 관점: AI의 가능성이 실재하며 올해 성장은 생산성이 견인하고 있다. 생산성 성장은 인플레이션을 낮추고 기업 이익에 긍정적이다. 성장률 전망: 작년 GDP 성장률은 1% 미만이었으나 올해는 2% 이상으로 본다. 고용 증가 폭은 작년의 절반 수준이다. 금리 관점: 실질 성장에 따른 금리 상승은 차입·자본투자 증가를 동반하지만, 이것이 주식에 부정적이라고 보지 않는다. 10년물 TIPS는 약 2.5%로, 과거 대비 높지만 역사적으로 높은 수준은 아니다(1997년 도입 시 3.5%, 3년 내 4.5%). 재정적자·인플레이션: 재정적자로 금리가 오르고 인플레이션이 올 수 있는 경우에도 채권보다 주식을 선호한다. 일본 변수: 일본은 30년 전 주식시장 정점 당시 규모가 미국 수준이었으나 현재는 경제 규모가 작아졌고 고령화로 감소 중이다. 일본 국채 보유는 많지만 과거만큼의 영향력은 없다고 본다. 다만 일본 YCC 조정은 미 국채금리 상승을 촉발하는 경로가 될 수 있다는 점은 인정한다. 지정학 리스크: 중동 등 지정학 문제는 대체로 매수 기회였으며, 상황이 더 나빠질 수 있으나 타이밍을 맞추기는 어렵다. 장기적으로 주식은 벽의 공포를 타고 오른다는 격언을 인용한다. 금리·긴축 리스크(사회자 질의): 최근 금리 급등과 가장 빠른 긴축 사이클, 양적긴축이 소비와 금융여건에 부담이며, 성장과 이익의 시험대라는 우려가 제기됨. S&P500은 금리 상승으로 5~6% 하락했다. 이익 전망: 실질 성장에 따른 금리 상승이라면 향후 분기·내년 기업 이익은 그렇지 않은 경우보다 양호할 것이라고 본다.

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01. Professor I think we got your audio back uh can you maybe start your answer again yeah right well let's talk about I mean you you listed some very good reasons why yields have risen if it's stronger growth what would you rather be in stocks or bonds I mean clearly stocks are the place to be in if we get stronger growth and I don't I don't mean just for last quarter um you know I think the promise of AI is real um this year our growth is being driven by productivity we actually have payrolls that are only half as big increase as we had last year and we had less than 1% GDP growth and this this year we're going to have well over 2% GDP growth so productivity driven growth I mean first of all it brings inflation down it it's it's good for earnings um but it does Drive yields up higher real growth more borrowing more capital investment I want to I want to be in stocks and not Bonds let's assume let's talk about the deficit suppose the higher yields are driven by the deficit and that may mean higher inflation you know in the future with with big deficits where would you want to be stocks or bonds you would want to be in stocks um now you know Sarah mentioned Japan I I'm not as convinced you know Japan 30 years ago when its stock market peaked off was as big as the United States now it's a tiny fraction its economy and an aging population is declining yes it holds a lot of treasuries but I don't think Japan is the force that it once was so I'm not as concerned about Japan as being a source of the reason but when I take a look at these higher yields especially driven by productivity growth and even if you worry about deficits listen I'd rather be in stocks isn't the geopolitical picture though now Professor um more shortterm right more acute more uh apt to give investors caution right it it it does and these geopolitical problems um are usually opportunities to buy if we look back at history now clearly things could get worse in the Middle East before they get better you know you are invited to try to time that in the market not many people can uh you know what is what is the most famous saying in the in the in stocks that stocks climb the wall of worry um and when the CL then there's no clouds in the sky uh you're buying too high I I really think geopolitical risk is in the long run an opportunity to buy stocks not to sell stocks I think the point that I was trying to make Professor on Japan is that not necessarily that that it's you know an economic headwind however it is a trigger for higher rates in the us because we we do see that when there's talk of their yield curve control adjustment then our our Treasury rise which is all an economic headwind so I get that you like stocks better than than bonds but and we've had pleasantly surprising growth but now we're facing the fastest tightening cycle that we've seen this big backup in yields and what that does for financial conditions and for consumer spending and quantitative easing at the same time that's the test for growth and for earnings ultimately isn't it and you meant I guess quantitative tightening at the same time yeah right at the same time right um certainly I think these higher yields have been the source of this you know five six% drop that we've seen in in the S&P but then when I think about well is that because of stronger growth then that means next quarter that means next year earnings are going to be better than they would be otherwise um don't for you know we talk about stronger real yields and certainly they have gone up the the 10year tips is two and a half we have to remember when tips came out in 1997 they were three and a half and within three years they were four and a half um so in the long picture these real yields although certainly higher than they've been in the last 10 12 years are not high in terms of history and if we have real growth that's the source of these higher yields I don't think that's a negative for stocks