저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 최근 IPO 활황은 시장 과열(euphoria)의 한 신호일 뿐이며, 그 자체로 결정적이지 않다. IPO 활황의 의미: IPO는 발행사에 유리하게 가격이 책정되는 경우가 많아, 활발하고 이후 주가가 오르면 버블성 징후로 볼 수 있다. 특히 실체가 약한 저품질 신규 상장이 많을수록 과열 신호가 강해진다. 과열 판단의 한계: IPO는 여러 지표 중 하나이며, 다른 과열 신호들이 함께 나타나야 과열로 본다. 과열 신호가 하나 나타났다고 바로 시장 고점은 아니다. 강세장 흐름: 존 템플턴의 말처럼 강세장은 비관에서 태어나 회의, 낙관을 거쳐 과열에서 끝나는 경향이 있다. 과열 국면은 생각보다 길게 지속되며, 고점 이전에 상당한 기간이 남아 있을 수 있다. 하락장 특성: 약세장 초기 하락은 완만한 경우가 많고, 하락폭의 대부분(약 3분의 2)은 기간의 마지막 3분의 1에 집중된다는 경험칙을 제시한다. 현재 판단: 2021년 1월 7일 기준으로는 아직 과열 단계에 도달했다고 보기 어렵다. 연말까지 강세장이 이어질 수도, 고점이 올 수도 있으며 심리 개선이 지속되는 동안은 강세장을 즐길 수 있다는 입장이다. 출연자 전망: 명확한 단기 방향 예측은 없으며 강세장 지속 가능성을 열어두는 중립적 입장.
다듬은 글
So lately— in fact— as 2020 evolves through its back half and increasingly, so after the elections and moving into the new year, you hear all kinds of people talking about "is the stock market euphoric? And that particularly got spiked with some dramatic, initial public offerings, AKA IPO's in December that did well.
And people ask our IPO's assigned the market being euphoric. Is that a signal of markets being euphoric? Yes, it IPO's are, uh, IPO. And I wrote a book in 1987 called the wall street walls in which I had a little section on IPO's and, and made the phrase. Then that IPO means it's probably overpriced, which is true.
IPO's are priced for the issuer. They're not priced for the buyer and when they are common and when they go up in price afterwards, that's a pretty good sign that there's some Bubblicious quality there somewhere. And in that, they are, indication as you have lots of them. And particularly when you get to lower quality ones, new ones of firms that don't really have a substantial business, don't have, uh, kind of like with residential real estate, don't have comparables that you can compare them to readily to establish value.
Uh, it's a sign of euphoria, but it's not singularly conclusive and complete. And that it's only one sign of euphoria. And there's lots of other things to look for. People tend to think, and, you know, I've espoused for years and years and years, the line of legendary investor, uh, sir, John Templeton, who was a marvelous man, by happenstance, I happened to have his, birthday, although obviously from a later year and I always paid attention to John Templeton and his line that bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria, is pretty much always true unless something really big and bad that can wall up the market comes along.
That isn't pre priced and that happens. But it's rare. The point about the euphoria is when you get into a market that starts to show signs of euphoria. You're really not in euphoria because you're not in euphoria until you get lots of signs of euphoria. And in that lots of signs, if you Foria people then are prone to want to get out, they want to think of it as a trigger mechanism to bail.
But in reality, once sentiment starts warming at a pretty good clip. It goes that way for a good long time. And before it gets to you for you. And then once it gets to you for you, it tends to say in euphoria for a pretty good time before you get to the top of the market and it rolls over. And when you get to the top of the market and it rolls over, it is most typically, almost always, this is a rule you can take to the bank.
It is gentle in the beginning descent that it starts because the market doesn't really want to scare you out right away, because it wants to sucker you down and take you down. And so it's, the decline starts off gently, little bit of a drop of basic rule of thumb is that two thirds of the drop of a bear market occurs in the last one-third of its time.
And only one third of the percentage drop occurs in the first two thirds of its time. But the beginning is pretty gentle. And therefore from the time that euphoria starts to build becomes full fledged and actually exists, you have a fairly long period of time before you get to the peak of the market.
And so while yes, IPO's are a sign of euphoria. They're not complete, they're not conclusive. You need to see a lot of other things we're not there yet. In my chapter eight of my only three questions book, I went to a whole long thing of all the stuff you need to see that, uh, we're not there yet, but as I speak now today, uh, on January 7th, uh, 2021, but the fact of the matter is, we might get there by the end of the year, a bull market might continue on longer, or this is a bull market and you should enjoy it once that sentiment starts improving at the rate that it has, it keeps improving for a good long time.
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