How to Look for Cash Durable Businesses | Bill Ackman | Stocks | Investment

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Ackman는 원칙을 돌에 새겨 사무실에 둔 일화와, 큰 투자 실수 후 원칙 복귀로 6년간 최고 성과를 냈다고 설명한다. 투자 성과가 좋은 분야는 프랜차이즈 외식업으로, 로열티 기반의 지속 가능한 현금흐름과 자본 없이 성장하는 구조가 핵심이라고 주장한다. 또한 AI 등 기술 변화는 해당 사업에 파괴보다는 고객 서비스 향상 요인이라고 본다. 다만 외식업 자체가 경쟁이 치열하다는 단서를 단다. 구체적 단기 가격 예측 발언은 없다.

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01. so many companies have principles but Ryan mentioned it and I actually saw it you carved those principles in a stone tablet and I think it's all over the office right yeah um it's almost like your own 10 in this case maybe eight Commandments how did that come about well it came about by when we veered right so um we had a great initial uh first you know kind of Dozen Years viring square and then we made an biggest investment mistake uh certainly of my career and when you're CEO you know you take credit for the mistakes 100% credit you share credit for the successes and the mistake made had we stuck to our core principles um we' never made the investment in the first place we had always talked about these principles but we hadn't sort of engraved them in stone so I told a member of the team come back with a piece of granite and a chisel and we're going to put this up on the wall and he came back with a Deal toy um had a little weight in it so it feels and looks a little bit like Stone but it served the same purpose actually people underestimate the power of almost like checklists considered a checklist and the kind of the advice of the team was if I ever uh Veer just hit me over the head with this thing and uh and it worked and we've actually had the best um you know since the the development of that little tablet we've had the best six years in our our history and one of the beauties of the investment business is you can recover even from Big mistakes the power of compounding yes never lose money but when that happens you can recover so uh when we look at your Investments that you made based on those principles um you put a lot in restaurants and um maybe your best track record is is from that sector in a world where there's so much excitement about the next hot technology AI why restaurants right so I would say there there and to be clear it's not that the restaurant sector in and of itself is something we think is amazing it's a very competitive business um consumer taste can be a little bit fickle but I would say at a high level the two types of restaurants that we've invested in we've had a lot of success have either been I'd say primarily most of the capital has been in franchised businesses so they're not really the owner of the capital and running the businesses on a day-to-day bus basis but it's really a royalty based business where they clip a percentage off the top of every single customer and every transaction that com comes in through the store and what we think is amazing about that is it generates a very durable cash flow stream and you can grow without Capital the owner who knows how to operate the business in his own or her own local market knows it way better than anybody else and it's a very high return business so i' say that type of financial profile combined with the local knowledge of somebody who knows the real estate who understands the operations and who has their own skin in the game because if their most important asset they're operating for you that's been one category that's been incredibly successful for us the other though though is and I think Buffett really talks about this the best business is one that can grow without Capital so that's the first bucket second is a business that deploys a lot of capital but can deploy it at sustainably high returns and those are the other businesses um that we've invested in and I think in that type of business it needs to be one that uh really has a mode around its business so it needs to own a category where it's hard to come in and a lot of that is just it it has a brand that consumers think of if I say coffee most people would think Starbucks um so I think those are the types of businesses over time that we have been successful in and and also those businesses tend to grow very very quickly so if you have a high returning business with a great competitive Advantage a good management team um and you can grow that then you're investing ever increasing amounts of capital very high returns we say those really fit our Paradigm and also it's a business where technological change generally is favorable so AI you know all the quick service restaurant companies today are testing Ai and everything from the drive-through process trying to predict you know what deal to offer to the consumer you know the customer coming back what you know what's the what what propos menu how do I optimize to to maximize the potential from the customer and so you know technology is an amazing thing U but you want to own a business where the the the latest development of Technology doesn't disrupt you it actually enhances your ability to serve your customer