저자: MathieuJ. · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리의 2021년 3분기 13F 포트폴리오 변화를 분석하며, 그가 신규 매수를 멈추고 익스포저를 줄이는 쪽으로 전환했다고 평가한 영상이다. 버리는 2008년 금융위기 예측으로 알려졌고, 가치투자 기반이지만 거시분석과 공매도도 활용하는 투자자로 소개됐다. 2020년 GameStop 대량 보유와 2021년 초 전량 매도 사례가 언급됐다. 13F 기준 미국 포트폴리오의 약 50%를 전량 매도했고, 나머지에서도 일부 축소와 매수 3건(록히드마틴 대규모 베팅 포함)이 있었다. 다만 13F는 미국 상장 종목만 반영한다는 한계가 강조됐다. 과거 10분기 데이터를 보면 회전율(매도 빈도)은 2010년 수준으로 꾸준했고, 이번 변화는 스타일 변화보다 신규 매수 부재에 가깝다고 해석했다. 테슬라에 대해서는 과대평가를 여러 차례 지적했고, 옵션 포지션을 통해 인플레이션 및 연준 금리 인상 전망을 반영해 왔으나 이후 해당 베팅도 청산했다고 설명했다. 버리는 연준의 인플레이션 진단과 계산 방식에 의문을 제기했으며, 닷컴 버블 당시 아마존이 95% 폭락한 사례를 들어 현재 시장과 비교했다. 결론적으로 버리는 점진적으로 노출을 줄이는 중이며, 투자자는 종목 선택을 매우 선별적으로 해야 한다는 메시지다. 영상 제작 시점(2021년 12월) 기준 과거 분석이며, 대폭락·초인플레이션 전망은 버리 본인의 발언을 인용한 것이다.
다듬은 글
Michael Berry became known in 2008 after predicting and betting heavily on the 2008 financial crisis. Today, many people follow his news and portfolio movements to try and understand if he's about to make another big profit. For about a year now, Michael Berry has been warning about the risks of a return of inflation and potentially predicting hyperinflation.
He has also made statements about the possibility of a mega-crash with a drop in all stock prices of 80 to 95%. Finally, he is a major critic of Tesla; he doesn't understand the current justification for its share price in relation to the company's fundamentals. Today, we are looking at whether these third-quarter movements are beginning to reflect, in reality, the consideration of a possible future mega-crash or a return of hyperinflation.
So, hello everyone, and thank you for your continued support. Today, in two months, we are trying to understand Michael Berry's investor profile. Initially, Michael Berry was... A medical doctor who studied neurosurgery, he initially became interested in investing as an amateur before founding his own investment fund called Sur Capital.
Many of Michael Berry's positions are based on value investing principles, which involve identifying undervalued stocks. He studies the company's profile, its financial fundamentals, deduces a value, and if he believes the company's price is below this value, he buys it on the stock market. Unlike other value investors, Michael Berry doesn't shy away from macroeconomic analysis.
He did this in 2007 to understand the variable-rate loan market, which led him to conclude that the loans were clearly not being repaid. He also noticed the anomaly of rating agencies continuing to give very favorable ratings to these variable-rate loans granted to individuals who were not Solvent and well, he bet very heavily on the possibility of a real estate crash.
So, Michael Berry's additional characteristics compared to classic long-term value investors are his ability to short the market, to sell short certain stocks he considers overvalued, and his ability to bet on the market's mackerel. So, when the crash occurred in March 2020, it should be noted, for example, that Michael Berry had at the time acquired a stock that was the number one in his portfolio, proportionally speaking, which was obviously GameStop.
Most of you know what happened next: the stock skyrocketed, individual investors seized upon this phenomenon, some of them making a fortune. Michael Berry was very likely one of the major factors behind the GameStop phenomenon due to his very significant position in this company. So, as an aside, it should be noted that he sold everything around December 2001, just before the short squeeze that led to the incredible surge we saw on the stock market.
So, he didn't benefit from it; he even denounced it. He felt it wasn't normal for the market to allow this kind of mob mentality. Regarding the evolution of Michael Berry's portfolio in the third quarter of 2021, it's again a matter of studying the positions and their changes in relation to the declaration made by investment funds in a document called Form 13F.
This document only mentions changes to positions listed on a US market. So, if Michael Berry has positions elsewhere in the world, obviously what I'm presenting right now doesn't reflect those changes. So, unlike last week's video where we saw no movement on Warren Buffett's portfolio, when we look at someone like Michael Berry's portfolio, you'll see that for about 50% of his US portfolio, he completely sold all of his shares.
On the other 50%, he made a significant reduction in two stocks: the "Corps Civiques des administrateurs établissements" ( Civic Corps of Administrators Establishments). private prison and finally, we still observe a series of purchases, specifically three, with in particular another large bet on the company Lockheed Martin.
So obviously, when we see such movements compared to other, more traditional long-term investors, we might think, "Well, that's it, Michael Berry has decided to sell everything." Perhaps he believes, as he states, that the mega- crash he's predicting, or the hyperinflation he fears, is imminent. But before reaching that conclusion, let's try to put these changes into perspective.
So, I'll show you about ten historical quarters of Michael Berry's positions, going back at least to before 2020, and try to understand if there had been a change in his sentiment, in his way of investing. Well, you can see with me that over about ten quarters, there is still a great deal of movement in Michael Berry's portfolio.
Michael Berry is not a long-term investor; he is perfectly capable of making very large bets on stocks for short periods. Short-term positions ranging from 1 to 5 years, so obviously we can see an increase in his positions in 2020. But what was important to understand is that the turnover of these positions, his selling capacity, seems to have been constant in recent quarters, including compared to 2010, a year in which he was n't announcing either the return of hyperinflation or the possibility of a mega-crash.
So, in fact, his trading style hasn't changed regarding the selling of his positions. However, we can note that these new purchases don't replace all the positions closed for a given quarter. He can sometimes take up to ten positions, and in this case, it's more about his ability to find new stocks that interest him in the American market, where he clearly doesn't seem to be finding what he's looking for.
He must consider, in fact, based on his own statements, that the market is potentially overvalued. And in the options market, Michael Berry had been relatively active with regard to Tesla, for which He has spoken out several times, explaining that it was largely overvalued, but also, in relation to his macroeconomic analyses, Michael Berry had taken options that reflected his view on inflation and this return of inflation, which would lead to an increase in rates by the Federal Reserve.
As well as the lack of new purchases in his portfolio, well, he also cut short all bets. So the new development with Michael Berry is simply that he is no longer buying and has stopped his bets on the options market concerning Tesla and the market in his macroeconomic view regarding the borrowing rates decided by the Federal Reserve throughout the year.
Michael Berry questioned the Federal Reserve's communication regarding its view of inflation. So it should be noted that, particularly during the 2007 crisis, Michael Berry did the same thing with regard to rating agencies that continued to assign ratings encouraging investors to accept securities and financial products within which the Subprime loans were found to be insolvent, and he had observed on his end that they were insolvent.
He emphasized inflation, sometimes questioning the Fed's calculation method to warn people that it was going to be Rothau's. Furthermore, Michael Berry alerted investors to the correlation between the current market and the dot-com bubble market of the 2000s. He warned investors that at the time, a company like Amazon lost 95% of its value, and as we have just seen, he did not replenish all the positions he sold with new purchases.
Therefore, the conclusion is indeed that Michael Berry is gradually disengaging, maintaining his selling rate as it has always been, but avoiding buying new shares. It would seem that Michael Berry has taken the turn to begin minimizing his exposure to the markets. We should draw a good lesson from this, namely that we must now be extremely selective in how we choose stocks.
So, if the market It slipped away from under your feet last Friday, and you should know that this coincides with the change in tone from the US Fed regarding the outlook for non- transitional inflation. You can see this reflected in the purchasing strategies of people like Michael Berry, taking into account this darkening future.
Thank you all for your time. To those who enjoyed this content, thank you for subscribing. And to those who didn't enjoy it, thank you for staying until the end of this video. Have a good weekend!
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