저자: JennyHorn/RickDukat · 외국인
요약 보기
JPM 실적 기대치가 과도하게 올라 있어 전반적 검증이 필요하며, 은행 실적은 전년비 감소가 예상됨. 항공주는 델타 실적 호재 이후 유나이티드 급등, 프리미엄 수요 견조로 하반기 여행 수요 기대. TSM은 AI 수요와 40% 성장으로 긍정적이나 성장 둔화 우려와 차트상 단기 횡보 신호(하라미, 약세 다이버전스) 언급. 기술적으로 JPM은 280 부근 지지 확인, UAL은 84-97 박스 돌파 후 단기 조정 가능성, TSM은 212 지지 확인 관찰.
다듬은 글
[ for chart master. Jenny Horn will take us through the fundamentals. Rick Dukat will take us through the technicals, some names to watch, names reporting. So Jenny, first taking a look here at JP Morgan Chase, which kicks off the big bank earnings next week on Tuesday, I believe. So tell us a little bit about what we're watching for here.
Yeah, and I I think that this will give a great read on some of the concerns as I do think it's pretty widely believed now that the expectations have run up so considerably over the last three months. This is going to be a very different earnings period for the banks than we saw last quarter because last quarter following a lot of that pessimism we really got in the winter of 2025.
We saw expectations that were pretty beaten down for the big banks and then they ended up actually performing quite well. And I think that, you know, not to criticize that because a lot of what the concerns were regarding like credit risk and loan losses as well as I mean like overall investment banking, trading, all of those divisions really came in better than expected.
So that I mean that bodess well for us all that that's a great read on the economy. But now with expectations having risen, valuations also having risen, we're going to have to see some pretty big numbers from these companies. And I say JP Morgan is going to be probably the most scrutinized. And I was reading some of Jamie Diamond's commentary o really over the last several days.
He actually has given a pretty stark message to Europe saying right now they are losing and saying that right now they're they continue to see more strain in Europe than what we face here in the US but did acknowledge that under Trump's administration right now economically speaking we need things to not deteriorate or else things could fall apart with the now current tax incentives as well as just you know levies.
we've seen it put into place. So Jamie Diamond has definitely been outspoken about some of his feelings about the economy. I mean, he was saying last quarter that the chances of a recession were well over 50%. I do believe that they've since pulled that conviction, but that is something to consider.
Expectations are different and the tone of the economy is a lot different as we go into this report. And also, I think interesting that earnings per share expected at $448. That would be a 26% contraction year-over-year on revenues that are expected to decrease also about 42% from last year to around 75.9 billion.
They're not the only one. I did check a lot of the estimates for the major banks like Bank of America, Cityroup also expecting to see some declines for top and bottom line. But again, as we set the tone into this banking really report and series of earnings, it's a very different quarter than last because expectations are high and we already know, we're expecting some weakness at least on a year-over-year basis from some of the biggest names in finance and banking.
All right, thank you for that. And you know, the trading revenue, I can't wait to hear from all these banks next week and uh and the outlook as well. Rick, take a look at the charts. Yes, some concern that these uh big bank stocks have risen perhaps too far too fast from these April lows down here. Uh JP Morgan up uh over 40% from that point.
So um for now though, the technicals are holding up for the most part. We can see that we had this uh notable high point back here near 280. We can now see that roughly it lines up with the bottom of our upward sloping channel here and our 21-day exponential moving average here. All of that comes together around 280 282 that general zone here.
So it's looking like within the past few days we retested that old resistance level which now has become supportive. Uh for now though a bit of a question mark. We can see today's candle a dogee basically where uh we are at where we opened after some fluctuations here. Uh you know an interesting situation a harami type candle here set up heading into this weekend.
We have uh JPM earnings coinciding with monthly uh July options expirations as well too. So it could be an interesting situation. RSI momentum still holding up out of the overbought area but holding on to this very modest green trend line that we see here. Uh uh so still a more bullish bias for that particular indicator.
If we were to look at our other studies, we can see that roughly where we topped out, it would have perhaps looked a little bit different a few days ago here. Roughly where we topped out is around that plus one standard deviation channel that comes in near two uh 280 298 or so right now here. So that's uh uh uh we'll have some eyes on it as an upside target potentially to the downside.
Volume uh picks up near 275 just below that 280 strike we mentioned. So that could be a key supportive area. Okay, thank you for that. And of course we kick off those earnings. We'll watch for JP Morgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs. So many yesterday we heard from Delta and it was such great news and next week we'll hear from United Airlines that reports on Wednesday Jenny some of the talk on Wall Street.
Yeah I think the huge driver of a lot of yesterday's enthusiasm with all the airlines. I mean we saw a a 16% spike in United which now up about 6 and a half% this week. I think speaks to the the still degree of uncertainty on these airlines. But it also makes me nervous that we saw such a substantial pop and we haven't even gotten their own results yet because well yes the rising tide can lift all boats in the airlines United's also its own beast here.
I mean shares have risen roughly 44% just in the last 3 months. So also I would say in the airlines the bar is a lot different but the encouraging thing is similar to Delta United has been really honing in on these premium offerings and serving more of these consumers that are trying to upgrade to you know get that leg room or also be upgraded to business or first class and that's seemingly part of their business is quite resilient as far as summer travel.
I think also Delta's commentary saying that but what they're seeing for the rest of this peak summer demand era they're expecting to see it actually better than feared and that runs through August. So that should also bode well for United. But in United's case right now, previously they had given the two 2025 profit outlooks, calling the economy impossible to predict.
And I I liked that because instead of withdrawing their guidance, they at least gave us something of like, hey, this is if the tariff situation evolves, this is if it doesn't. So I will be curious to know like what lane they pick because I think you could make the argument for both ways. There's still definitely looming tariff threat, but there's also right now at least the expectations that hopefully we're we're pricing in.
United also is second to Delta, the most buy rated of the airlines as far as the sell side. So, it's it's a massive massive company. Both names do have these nice premium offerings, but it's still going to be, I think, hugely how the average domestic traveler is seeing that demand now going forward and also how they're able to juggle the flux right now that we've seen in fuel prices as crude oil has been volatile and that obviously then can impact these airlines and some of those very thin margins of of profitability that they see.
The airline business is tough where it's one to see substantial gains in and I feel like you see that really still reflected by all of the major US airlines. Yeah. And look, I mean the consumer spending is going to be the big story as we go into the fall. I mean obviously summer people are still traveling and you know the economy is still looking pretty good, but you know the back to school people are worried about.
Then we have the holidays. Let's see what UL will say next week. I'm very interested to hear if they come out with a similar type of report pertaining to demand. Let's look at the chart. That's you, Rick. Yeah, it's interesting that United had an even bigger reaction than Delta did to the Delta earnings here.
So, quite a sympathy move for uh the airline sector here. But when we look at our chart, we can see that there was a pronounced rangebound period right here between about 72 to 84, our light green line to our dark green line there. And and you can see uh high points and then subsequent low points. Old resistance became support.
If we backtrack and look at 84, that was the low point after we had a gap up. That was the breakdown point here. And then price attempted to retest that level several times. Now, we've had a pretty strong breakout to the upside. Heavy volume, a volume spike, uh meaning at least, uh 50% greater than the 50-day simple moving average of volume.
We're well below that now. Uh uh almost twice as much volume as typical here. So that shows conviction on the part of the traders when you see a large gap up on heavy volume. However, as uh with our last chart, a harami type candle forming today so far. I mean, it could change. There's still plenty of time left, but uh the smaller red candle completely contained within the real body of the previous day's larger green candle.
So, uh typically regarded as a sign of momentum interrupted. also could just be simply some profit taking after this uh a quite large jump to the upside here. Linear regression line, our line of best fit, our blue line here, an idea of fair value comes in at about 9260 or so. That's about where we topped out yesterday.
Another heavy volume area here from about uh 95 to 97. That could be a resistance area to watch out for. To the downside, our old range, that's the obvious place to watch for support. Uh 84 is where that uh uh begins. 72 or so is where it ends. Right. Okay. How about we turn our attention? Thank you for that.
Appreciate it. How about Taiwan Semi? I mean, obviously these names are such so in focus as we're watching Nvidia new highs today above $167. What do we do with Taiwan Semi next week, Jenny? So Taiwan ZVI I think is so important because it not only is is I mean obviously the biggest foundry behind the the making of the the Nvidia chips, it's also has it its hand in so many key parts of technology.
I mean I saw a report that estimated they basically produced right now about 90% of the tech that you and I know and love. So as well as the Apple iPhones, they also do make the chipsets behind Qualcomm. I mean the list just goes on and on and on. Plus, I think they have a massive competitive edge over I mean, maybe Intel would be the closest competitor in terms of its foundry business, but not really seeing any anyone come close.
Plus, they've already made substantial investments here in the US. Even ahead of these tariff announcements, they've already strengthened that relationship with, of course, the Trump administration and focusing on building in Arizona and producing here domestically. They've been undergoing that for years now, which was a strategy that was brilliant as companies do right now try to serve more and more here domestically.
I mean, I think they've just been firing on all cylinders. And I know that we say that Nvidia has right now such a dominance in the chip market specifically, but I I think that Taiwan in its own respective space is just as dominant. I mean like there's not really again any major competitive threat whereas Nvidia has to continue every every few years releasing the latest iteration of of its architecture and that is a fairly expensive whereas Taiwan is a relatively assetike company which is just brilliant.
So I think that there's a lot of expectations as we went into this report did help that we already saw it it second quarter actually report growth of around 40% or at least for the the month through June. So that was encouraging. There was some criticism that the pace of growth is slowing. First quarter we saw 42% growth.
So yes, you could make the argument from 42 to 39% it's slightly waning, but that's I think being fairly critical of a name that's still posting nearly 40% growth, which is astounding. It hasn't also gotten the same degree of love as we've seen in so many of these names that are at all-time highs. Think Nvidia or Broadcom or Oracle.
So for that reason, I think there's still optimism to be had. It's just to also does have a broader scope of of customers. It's not just entirely a US company and so perhaps that's still providing a bit of a ceiling here. But I think they've been in the right place, right time for so many years now.
And just I I think that the Foundry business model is one that's brilliant, especially if you're still a believer in the mass opportunity to be had in AI. Yeah. So much to watch for with this name. I mean when we talk about the first half of the year and the 40% halfyear revenue growth I know June saw some sales decline but that's great news thus far.
So will sales surge? What will we watch for Jenny doing a great summation there? Tell us about the chart. What's interesting to you? It certainly has been on an upward trend since liberation day. Yeah, I mean I'll say what I always say. It's it's hard for me to imagine people wanting less computer chips going forward here.
So just my general take there. Uh and the chart is showing that we are p pushing above an old high here. This red line represents a high point near 226. Uh we did hit some significant lows but we held on near our previous lows from all the way back here August 5th uh that other day where uh the Japanese stock market uh uh and yen had uh some issues here.
So it brought many stocks to significant lows. But it's important that we held on there. We rallied. We're up about 73% or so from that point. Now price action making more of a very narrow rising wedge type shape. Our two upward sloping trend lines converging toward each other. And actually today price starting to drift beyond that point.
So yesterday to to kind of continue our candle pattern theme here. We did have a bearish engulfing candle. Yesterday's bigger red candle swallowed up the previous day's smaller green candle. But an important part of that is that there needs to be bearish follow through the next day. you would expect a big move for the confirmation of the candle.
We're seeing the opposite. We're seeing more once again, third time in a row, a harami type candle, a smaller candle uh that suggest slowing momentum here despite us moving beyond the this uh this trend line here. RSI also reflecting a similar slowdown with some bearish divergence here. Doesn't necessarily mean a collapse is coming.
Just means perhaps that price is consolidating after reaching some highs here. plus two standard deviation channel. Our orange line two standard deviations up from the linear regression line comes in at around 241. To the downside, our 212 level, our green line representing some old significant highs and lows matches up with where volume starts to pick up again.
Okay, Rick Ducat, Jenny Horn, every day here on Chartmaster doing so much work on the fundamentals of the story and charting the stock. Thank you both so very much. Appreciate it.
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