저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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파월 연준 의장 관련 논란이 끝나지 않았다는 진단. 파월이 이사직 잔류 가능성이 있고, 잔류 시 트럼프의 금리인하 드라이브가 제약된다고 봄. 금리 인하는 워시 체제에서도 전쟁·유가 상황을 지켜보며 신중할 것으로 예상. 시장은 유가 90달러대를 감내하고 있으며, 미국은 에너지 자급 능력이 있어 타국보다 영향이 적고, 실적과 AI 수요가 강함. 통화공급·신용이 완화되는 흐름이 보이며 군비 지출 확대도 재정 부양 요인. 호르무즈 등 중동 긴장 완화 시 추가 상승 여지가 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
All right, this week is the busiest for earnings yet and we'll be hearing from the Federal Reserve about the future path for interest rates. Joining us right now is Jeremy Siegel. He is Professor Emeritus of Finance at . He's also the Chief Economist at WisdomTree. And Professor, let's just take stock of where we are with the markets at this point.
The S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq 100 all closed at record highs on Friday. It's happening while we continue with this war in the Middle East and while energy prices are higher. Um, where do you think about what we've come up with just in terms of all of this while we're also in the middle of earning season?
Well, first good morning, Becky. Uh, let me say that I don't think the drama uh surrounding Jay Powell is over. Uh, you I understand that Tillis will let Warsh go. But uh we I haven't read anything that says that Powell accepts uh the uh what what Trump has done stopping the investigation from the Justice Department well, that's sufficient for him to leave his position and that's that's very important.
We all know that he won't be chairman um and and that's okay, but we know he has two more years that he could serve if he wants and at that last meeting he seemed to make it clear unless I am exonerated um completely exonerated uh you know, I will stay on as board member and uh he will be the second most powerful person there after Warsh uh in in that uh in that room.
So Well, Jeremy, the criminal charges are go the criminal charges are dropped. Now it's just the the IG the Inspector General's going to look at whether there's cost overruns. This is Well, well, well, well, well, well, well, there was a question of permanent He had with He He said exoneration. Now, I don't know I wonder Powell thinks that whether it could be used against him, too.
I think he wants to get as far away as he can from all this. He wants to go back and be a normal person again and not have all this swirling around him. I don't think he wants to be a thorn in the side like a a gadfly, but Even if he stayed, I don't know that he would um try and kick things up and be a dissenter necessarily.
I I I don't see him as somebody who's an activist. I see him as somebody who basically has always kind of voted with what he think what he thinks is the right move. I mean I I I I I understand that. I I think that's going to be interest I mean in the Wednesday uh news conference uh that we're going to get at 2:30, I think that's probably the most interesting thing that's going to happen.
It's him saying they dropped it and you know, this clears the way, you know, uh you know, I am satisfied with that uh position because remember it sort of came out of the blue at that last meeting when he said unless it unless it is dropped and I am exonerated, I uh you know, I intend to stay on as as the Fed as the Fed member.
So, I I think given that we all know that there's not going to be any change uh that he will not be chairman at the most important meeting which the June meeting is going to be the fascinating meeting. I think his statement about well, you know, does he feel sufficiently clear or not. I don't know whether he talked to Tillis or not saying yeah, this is good enough for me and Tillis said, "Okay, if it's good enough for you, I'll go on." I mean that that that certainly is one thing that's going on.
Who knows? You might be right. I mean Yeah, I mean I I I I'm trying to say that I I I I I I and pissed off and everything else. But even if even if he stayed, do you see it changing the course of the FOMC voting on rates? Well, I I I mean this if he stick Don't forget him staying denies Trump another one of his picks.
Right. Um and you know, if he really wants to change the course of the Fed, he needs as many picks as possible. And so I I I think him staying is very significant in terms of changing the direction of the Fed post post war. Because you know, I mean outside of war you know, Miron is leaving. Which I actually think I I like Miron.
I wish he would stay, but he has said he is leaving. So where are the other allies that Trump has for aggressively lowering rates? Do you Do you think that Warsh is going to try and lower rates at the first meeting? Would that go around if No, I'm not sure. I think he's going to wait and see. Um I think you know, we're all going to wait and see him and that's two months away almost.
So you know, what's going to happen in the war? What's going to happen to oil? What's going to happen in in prices? You know, he he may try. I don't know you know, how how Trump will react, but I think he needs as many allies as possible and the only way to get an ally is for Powell to leave two years before the end of his term and Trump getting another appointment.
So I think that that that is an important development going on. Let's just talk Oh, go ahead. I'm sorry. Yeah, I mean outside of that listen, you know, I think basically the market said we can live with $90 oil. Um you know, we're energy self-sufficient. We're less affected than anyone else. Earnings are coming in great.
War expenditures will be up. Well, we know that's an extra stimulus from the fiscal side that's coming on. Monetary policy, you know, I'm looking at money supply and credit seems to be getting easier. I see an expansion of that. So, you know, and AI is you know, even with the war, AI is now considered to be war-linked in the sense [clears throat] of, well, you know, who's going to generate the drones and all the technology that is going to fight our 21st century wars, AI might be even more important than we thought 6 months ago.
So, you know, I I don't see anything stopping this market going forward, you know, except, you know, hostilities coming on and and oil spiking to 140 or 150. Okay, that's what I was going to ask because even with oil at these prices, earnings are coming in strong and the market's sitting at new highs or right around new highs.
I mean, that tells you that if hostilities calm down, there's probably more behind that, right? Oh, yeah. I mean, if there is a I mean, I I don't know, you know, we've gotten news that I mean, if if Trump accepts that, all right, we'll we'll open the straight and talk about, you know, energy, that that would be a big positive for the market.
I mean, you know, because that is restricting, you know, 10 10 million plus barrels a day of oil. It affects, you know, Europe in particular, Asia much more than it affects us, but their demands of course, we live in a global economy. Uh will will, you know, redound to our our benefit if they get if they get the oil that they need.
So, yeah, if that if if if Trump accepts that proposal, that would be a big positive for the market.
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