저자: 스탠리드러켄밀러 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 드러켄밀러는 2021년 5월 시점 전반적 자산 과열을 인정하면서도 증시 하락 시점은 예측하지 못하고, 연말 전 증시 이탈 가능성을 언급했다. 시장 전반: 모든 자산에 걸쳐 격렬한 과열(mania)이 있다고 보지만 종료 시점은 모른다고 밝혔다. 1999년 기술주 과열 때 조기 공매도한 사람들이 연말 전 파산한 사례를 들어 타이밍의 어려움을 강조했다. 현재도 주식 롱 포지션은 유지하나, 4~5개월 전보다 노출을 크게 줄였다고 했다. 포지션 변화: 작년 8월~10월 사이 회복 확신이 생기면서 상대적 베팅을 원자재, 금리, 달러 쪽으로 옮겼다. 연말 전에는 주식시장에서 빠져나와 있을 것이라고 놀라지 않을 것이라는 언급이 있다. 암호화폐: 비트코인은 가치저장 수단으로서 대체가 어렵다고 평가했다(14년 브랜드, 유한 공급). 이더리움은 스마트 계약·상거래에서 선두지만 최종 승자는 아직 확신할 수 없고, 신생 경쟁자가 나올 가능성이 있다고 봤다. 페이스북·구글 사례를 들어 초기 선두가 최종 승자가 아닐 수 있다고 설명했다. 본인은 이 부분에 베팅하지 않는다고 밝혔다. 기축통화: 미국이 기축통화 지위를 잃을 가능성을 중심 시나리오로 보며 15년 내 그럴 확률이 50% 이상이라고 언급했다. 유로존은 혼란, 중국은 신뢰 부족으로 대안이 되기 어렵고, 원장(ledger) 기반 시스템이 대체할 가능성을 언급했으나 구체적 형태는 모른다고 했다. 재정·통화정책: 연준이 채권 발행의 약 60%를 매입해 재정 확대를 가능하게 하고 있다고 비판했다. CBO 전망(금리 4.9% 가정 시 이자비용이 GDP의 약 30%)을 인용해 연준의 화폐화 압력을 경고했다. 연준은 인플레이션이 뚜렷해질수록 대응이 늦어져 버블이 커질 것이라고 주장했다. 리스크/조건: 가장 유력한 위험은 인플레이션이 명백해져 연준이 뒤늦게 긴축하는 상황이다. 연준이 현실에 밀려 입장을 바꾸면 버블이 터질 수 있다고 봤다. 대만 리스크도 언급됐으나 자막이 불완전해 구체 내용은 확인이 어렵다. 출연자 전망: 달러 기축통화 지위 상실을 중기 이상 장기 시나리오로 제시, 단기 증시는 과열 지속 가능성과 연말 전 이탈 가능성을 동시에 언급했다.
다듬은 글
we're going to a different economy and we're going to be learning more about that uh as we go but clearly we're we're learning that things can be done uh from remote locations we're learning that technology can replace people even more than we thought we're not going back to the same economy we're going we're recovering but to a different economy and it'll be one that is more leveraged to technology and i worry that that is going to make it even more difficult than it was for for many workers in silicon valley and my friends who work in technology know that what we did to the manufacturing workers we are now going to do to the retail workers the call center workers the fast food workers the truck drivers and then even bookkeepers accountants uh insurance agents lawyers and on and on through the economy so what happened to the manufacturing workers a very clear sign this effort and china has big plans for this they intend to seed their digital you want into the global environment by giving it away to visitors at next winter's olympics when they arrive at the airport they're going to get you want digital wallets they're going to receive digital u1 they're going to use it throughout their visits to beijing and then they're going to take it back to their home countries they've seen this as a huge advantage why because who controls the underlying protocols who controls the underlying standards of the future of money will control the future of money short some situations becky that's the that's the big question um i have no doubt none whatsoever that we are in a raging mania in all assets i also have no doubt that i don't have a clue when that's going to end i knew we were in a raging mania in 99 and it kept going on and if you had shorted the tech stocks say in mid 99 you were out of business by the end of the year but we are still long the stock market we're not as long nearly as long as we were four or five months ago we're still playing the game we've shifted a lot of our our relative uh bets into commodities into interest rates into the dollar all those shifts occurred last last say august through october when it became clear to us that the recovery was going but i will be surprised if we're not out of the stock market by the end of the year hey stan you made some interesting comments both about the dollar and then crypto but i'm curious about where you stand you you suggested that there be you know some kid who's gonna create this next you know uh crypto uh blockchain ledger does that mean that the cryptos that exist today don't fulfill uh the requirements that you think that we'd need in the future is that what does that say about a bitcoin or an ethereum then first of all andrew that's a very good question but i'm a 68 year old dinosaur who has historically used gold as a replacement for fiat currencies but i'll i'll take a shot at that it's going to be very hard to unseat bitcoin as as a store of value asset because it's got a 14-year brand it's been around long enough and obviously there's a finite supply obviously ethereum has the lead in terms of smart contracts in terms of commerce that kind of stuff but yes my guess would be and thankfully i'm not betting on this one way or the other andrew but my guess would be you remember facebook was not the first social network it was number 11.
yahoo invented the search engine and with just a marginally better speedier technology we all know what happened with google versus yahoo it's just not probable in my mind that ethereum is going to be the ultimate winner and that some kids somewhere because don't forget some of the best and brightest of kids coming out his engineering problem they're all going into crypto the quality of the competition that's going to come against the incumbents in this space is going to be brutal that's why i just think it's too early to call who's going to be the winner in terms of the payment system commerce and that kind of stuff as a paris as opposed to store value where i think it is going to be tough to unseat bitcoin based welcome to the krypto teacher and guys you know i come back with that second video just to make you think we have stanley drunken miller on cnbc telling all the truth guys and we know he's a puppet for the new world order we know that the fed builds up the narratives so therefore they can start pulling back the most important piece guys he said the united states is going to lose the reserve currency we don't hear that on mainstream media we know what's happening behind the saints now they said china is not going to take over but we know china digit yuan is going to be the new reserve currency backed by the digital sdr if you have my book you know i've already explained that to you and he's constantly blaming the fed about everything that's going on and is he telling the truth yes it was the supply of money the fed bought 60 percent of debt issued but guys we know it's all planned we know this is all a narrative drunken miller asks is chart five up no guys how does he know what chart is up cuz it's all planned it's all a narrative it's all a movie and then lastly one important thing he stated he said what could actually burst his bubble at the end he said taiwan what is taiwan that's right world war iii is coming and lastly drunken miller state alleged system would come five years ago how did he know that's the reason why i have the picture up with george soros he's part of the new world order the puppets but we know ethereum is going to be the winner why do we know ethereum is going to be the winner because all the phase money is backing it now whether they take that ethereum technology and move it over to jp morgan remains to be seen because we know jp morgan is building federal reserve 2.0 on blockchain we already see you know i've done plenty of videos on that and he stated this technology is going to come out of mit the new world order school michael saylor because we know when it comes to the new world order everything is planned out y'all have a wonderful day i want to get to something that it just is amazing to just see it in print from you and that is when we do lose the the status as a world reserve currency it's going to be hard to find a replacement because in china it's going to there's a lack of trust in the currency of a foreign dictatorship obviously and then europe's a mess your best guess is that a crypto derived ledger system will be invented and that that will become the reserve currency of the world okay let's not get too carried away i know but that that just sizzles with you know sell the stick it is go ahead i knew i knew crypto was going to come up to this show okay so it's okay but um look one of the lines about the dollar we've all heard a hundred times the last 10 years is we're the cleanest dirty shirt in the room there's no alternative and it's true that is what uh has been our strongest case for the dollars europe is a complete mess um who's going to trust the chinese so it can't be them and i've been groping well how does that resolve itself well you probably don't remember this joe but five or six years ago i said that that crypto was a solution in search of a problem and that's why i didn't play crypto the first wave because we already had the dollar what do we need crypto for well the problem has been clearly identified it's jerome powell and the rest of the world central bankers there's a lack of trust so sort of groping for an answer for a central case of best guess and it's hard to make a forecast three months from now much less 15 years from now i think the most likely the most likely replacement would be some kind of ledger system invented by some kids from mit or stanford or some other engineering school that hasn't even happened yet um that can replace the dollar worldwide i don't know what it'll be i just know if the fed is forced to monetize the debt remember all in the name of raising inflation 30 basis points i really don't understand why 1.6 inflation with a mandate of price stability is a national problem national tragedy but okay if they want to do all this and risk our reserve currency status risk an asset bubble blowing up so be it but i think we ought to at least have a conversation about it so let's talk about the dollar and 85 percent of the transactions are still done in the dollar you pointed out in a recent speech that you think we've crossed the rubicon are you comfortable saying what you said there that that for the first time in your career you think we lose reserve status at some point i'm comfortable with it that's my central case as you know joe i can change my mind but yeah um you said that to some extent the fed is enabling the fiscal transfers it's not to some extent they couldn't be doing this without the fed the fed is monetizing their activity i mentioned all the qe after vaccine confirmation and retail sales we've had 850 billion of direct transfers 575 billion of them came after retail sales were above trend 575 of the 850 billion i'm old enough to remember the the bond market vincent lannis i used to be one of them without the fed buying i don't know what the exact number is i think it's 60 percent of all the debt issued that the bond markets would be totally rejecting this so they are enabling this massive expansion in fiscal policy and the problem is if you end up getting inflation and frankly even if you don't the debt is going to be so big you remember i did my entitlement talks eight or nine years ago that's all happened except for one thing the interest rate level so we're right now in the corrupts of when the demographic when the baby boomers accelerate in terms of of getting medicare medicaid social security that stuff right as we're doing that we just put six trillion of new debt on again all enabled by the fed these guys could not be doing it bond rates would go to a prohibitive level so my my issue here is in the future um as we go forward if you look at do you have chart five up there let's get it i think we can do it uh which one uh it's federal spending social security major health care programs federal spending percent of gdp this is the cbo this is not me okay and they're saying if 10 years go to 4.9 which is their normalized projection the interest expense alone will be close to 30 percent of gdp every year that's basically what we just spent on the covert emergency in the last year there is no way we can afford to have 30 percent of all government outlays be be toward interest expense so what will happen is the fed will have to monetize that when they monetize it um i believe it'll have horrible implications for the dollar and that's why i said in that speech yes that i think it's more likely than not within 15 years we lose reserve currency status in the past you have pointed out that the fed has stayed a little bit too long i think after the financial crisis with emergency accommodation but you seem to have taken your criticism up to a new level to the point of if you combine fiscal policy that we're seeing with the monetary policy it's the the scariest combination in the post world war ii period in your view certainly the most radical policy by a long shot that i've ever seen relatively economic circumstances let's i understand why the fed and congress did what they did at the time i think it was the right decision on a risk-award basis but when the facts change you have to change and the facts have changed dramatically since then and yes i don't think i can't find any period in history where monetary and fiscal policy were this out of step with the economic circumstances not one and you might think that the fed would be talking about an interest rate hike right now and you point out it's 32 months the other statistic that i saw you point out was and i don't have it right here but the amount of of asset purchases that the fund has or that the fed is orchestrated just in in a very brief period of time it eclipses what we did through the whole financial crisis for the seven eight years after the financial crisis what does that mean in six weeks last spring um we did more qe more more purchasing treasuries than we did the entire time the nine year period from 2009 to 2018.
frankly joe i don't have a problem with that we were in a black hole no one knew where we were headed what i have a problem with is the fed is expected to do two and a half trillion of qe after after vaccine confirmation and after retail sales reached trend and were above trend so the the black hole didn't occur that's wonderful we're all happy but we're still acting like we're in a black hole and in fact uh the economy accelerating fitted by all this easy money is there something that could trip that up in a much more uh kind of a scary scenario and and something that that causes not necessarily something we saw in 2008 but more than a slow steady decline in the dollar and you know you see inflation go and interest rates start going up is there something that could cause a real significant break quickly on the horizon in your view we can never say there's not but well the most probable and the elephant in the room is inflation becomes so obvious that the fed has to move and the longer they wait to move the bigger the bubble will be and the big and the bigger the reaction so if they raise rates say three years from now as opposed to three months from now will obviously be paying in three months but if they kept the bubble going it would it would be a much more dire consequence if you're talking that would be the most probable problem i'd say is what it always is is the fed gets gets mugged by reality frankly i think they've already been mugged by reality but they're but they're ignoring it but if they start to come around to some of the views i've expressed that would pop the bubble stamp the other problem with you say taiwan okay
Comments 0