Wharton's Jeremy Siegel explains three factors that are supporting the market

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결론: 시장은 강세가 이어질 것이며 2021년은 매우 좋은 해가 될 것이라는 낙관적 전망이다. [시장 지수 흐름] 다우 2만은 2017년에 도달했고 10,000에서 20,000까지는 18년이 걸렸다. 현재는 약 3~4년 만에 50% 상승한 상태다. [상승 근거 3가지] 첫째, 유동성: 연준의 준비금 공급뿐 아니라 M1 통화량이 3월 이후 44% 증가했으며 이는 2차 세계대전 이후 보지 못한 수준이다. 둘째, 백신 뉴스가 예상보다 좋고 예상보다 일찍 배포될 가능성이 있어 내년 소비 증가를 뒷받침한다. 셋째, 대선 결과가 우려보다 훨씬 나아 상원이 공화당을 유지할 가능성이 높고 법인세 인하가 유지되며 트럼프의 비생산적 무역정책이 줄어들 것으로 본다. [목표치 전망] 40,000 도달까지는 연 7~8% 장기 기대수익률 기준으로 5~6년이 걸린다는 계산이다. [밸류에이션] S&P500은 내년 예상 이익의 약 22배에 거래 중이며 기술주 밸류에이션이 높다. 본인은 약 20배 수준으로 보고 있다. [실적 전망] 보통 연중 이익 기대치는 하향되지만 내년에는 호황으로 실적이 기대치를 상회할 것으로 본다. [자금 흐름과 금리] 금리가 사상 최저 수준이므로 주식이 자산으로서 채권을 이길 수밖에 없고 주식으로의 자금 유입이 계속될 것으로 본다. [장기 수익률 및 리스크] 역사적 장기 실질 수익률은 6.5~7%이나 향후는 이보다 낮은 실질 총수익률 약 5% 수준으로 본다. 채권 실질수익률은 약 -1%로 예상한다. 향후 몇 년간 인플레이션이 2%를 넘을 가능성을 언급했으나 주식 시장으로 자산을 밀어 올리는 힘은 여전히 압도적이라고 본다. [사회자 질문 요지] 사회자는 과열 우려와 기간 단축의 이유를 질문했고, 교수는 시작 시점에 따라 기간이 크게 달라진다고 답했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. We hit 20,000 in 2017. That was 18 years after 10,000. And now we're like, I don't know, three, call it, four years later to get to 30. Too much too soon, professor. No, I don't think I don't think so. Uh, but you're right. L less than four years for a rise of of 50%. Less than four. I think there's Yeah.

02. Yeah. A little less than four years, right? Uh I think there's three major factors that are really supporting the market. Um first of all, the liquidity in the system and I I don't just mean reserves added by the Federal Reserve. I mean the M1 money supply up 44% since the beginning of March. We have we have not seen that since World War II.

03. That tremendous liquidity. Now it's been repressed because of the of the virus. But then on top of that, of course, the vaccine news better than anyone hadn't expected and and actually perhaps deployed earlier than anyone expected to enable this liquidity to increase spending next year. And third, I think the election came out far certainly far better than a lot of people feared uh in terms of the Senate very likely staying Republican.

04. the tax cuts going to, you know, remain in corporate tax cuts in particular and and maybe not some of the crazy trade policies that I don't think were productive that Trump tried to pursue. Uh so on all those three fronts, we have positive forces for the market that I think are going to cause 2021 to be a very good year.

05. So, professor from the what have you done for me lately department? What when do we get to 40? How long how long till then? Well, so 40 would be another what onethird increase. Um could we you know 8% a year would you know 7 8% a year would be the long-term expectation uh on that. So I mean I I guess if you do the math you you you get you know five or six years uh until we hit 40.

06. Um now we are we're selling 22 times next year's earnings on the S&P lower on the Dow um because of the tech valuations being uh uh uh uh higher than the rest of the market. Uh but personally I I think we're going to beat 2021. Normally earnings expectations go down as we progress through the year, but but I actually think that we're going to have a boom next year that we're going to actually beat those earnings.

07. I think we're probably selling closer to 20 times earnings and in a world of of interest rates so record low. Uh hey, you you you can't beat stocks as an asset, continued flows into equity. So I I think you just partially answered my question, but if I do the math on what you just said, what you're talking about is the doubling from 10 to 20 took 18 years.

08. And if it's 5 years to 40,000, the doubling from 20 to 40 is n years. Why is the doubling coming at a much more rapid pace than it had been previously? Well, those are very sensitive to what year you started. Um, you know, if you started in a in a bare market near a bare market, you're you're going to get doubling much faster.

09. Uh, I I I think you look at the long-term, and of course, you know, I've done a lot of research on long-term returns in the market, and the long-term returns are six and a half to seven after inflation. Now, I think we're not going to get that high long term. I think we're closer to 5% total return after inflation with bonds at minus one after inflation and probably even less than that because I actually think there's going to be how much higher than 2% inflation over the next couple of years.

10. Uh you know that's still a margin that is really overwhelming to propel uh assets into into the stock market. So, I think we're going to get lower long-term returns than, let's say, the 200-year average, but still enormous when you compare them to uh to fixed income uh assets in the economy. .