저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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결론: 백신 낙관론으로 '정상화(리턴 투 노멀시)' 수혜주를 사고, 약세 시 분할 매수하라는 주장. [시장 전망] 백신 성공으로 포스트 코로나 시대가 올 것이며 여행·외식·소비가 회복된다고 봄. 다우 28포인트, 나스닥 0.22% 상승 등 당일 시장 반응을 긍정적으로 해석. [백신 효능] 화이자·모더나·아스트라제네카 백신이 모두 90% 이상 효능을 보인다고 언급. 겨울은 혹독하겠지만 4~6개월 내 강한 반등이 가능하다고 함(백신 출시가 차질 없을 경우). [항공·여행 관련] 보잉 매수 추천(신규 주문, 미중 긴장 완화 수혜). 홈디포·스탠리 블랙앤데커 등 언급. 사우스웨스트는 최선호 항공주로, 유나이티드도 언급. [소매·의류] 메이시스(실적 양호), 콜스, 아메리칸이글, 갭(JP모건 상향), 테스토리(코치), PVH, 리바이스 등 언급. 나이키는 일관성이 강해 이번 리스트에서 제외. [쇼핑몰·뷰티·타깃] 사이먼 프로퍼티 그룹(임대료 20% 할인 재협상 기대), 페더럴 리얼티 언급. 얼타뷰티, 에스티로더, 타깃 긍정적. [헬스케어·유통] 맥케슨(의약품 유통 수혜) 추천. 약국 체인은 아마존 리스크로 회피 권고. [레저·외식] 디즈니(디즈니플러스 및 테마파크 재개 기대) 강하게 긍정. 크루즈주는 노르웨이지안 크루즈, 로얄캐리비언, 카니발 언급. 외식은 올리브가든 모회사 다든 레스토랑 등 대형주 선호, 스테미너 부족한 소형 외식은 우려. [에너지] 석유주 중 파이오니어·셰브런만 투자 가능하다고 봄. MLP는 긍정적으로 보나 추천은 주저. [자동차·기타 산업] GM(캘리포니아 연비 기준 대응 전환 긍정), 테슬라 상승 여력 있다고 봄. 일리노이툴웍스, 듀폰, NXP 반도체 등 언급. 전기·수소 관련주는 급등 후 일부 차익실현 필요 언급. [금융] 금융주 중 비자·마스터카드 선호, 아메리칸익스프레스는 과열 우려. 스퀘어·페이팔은 비트코인 취급으로 강세. 은행주는 순이자마진 상승 필요로 선호도 낮음. [리스크·전략] 백신 출시 차질 가능성, 추가 경기부양책 지연 가능성(은행·소형 외식 타격 우려). 정상화 수혜주와 stay-at-home 종목을 섞는 바벨 포트폴리오 전략 제시. 단기 조정 시 백신 수혜주 분할 매수 권고.
다듬은 글
ig america i'll be one of my i've seen the future the post covent era and it's fantastic today we figured out exactly what this market will look like when we beat the pandemic we'll all take planes then rent gas guzzling cars then shop our darn fool heads off well that's why the dow started 28 points not just because janet yellen might be the treasury secretary s to be gained point six percent five six percent and nasdaq advanced point two two percent now of course i'm exaggerating here except for about janet yellen because we really hope you become strategically but when we go through and look at these vaccines we discover what are we what we're three for three pfizer moderna and astrazeneca all have ones that are 90 or more effective you got to start believing that we're rapidly heading for light at the end of the tunnel science is winning people scoffed at science they're not scoffing anymore now but it's going to be a brutal winter once we get through it though the world can we think go back to normal given how successful these vaccines seem to be and that's what the action told us today it's why we saw real buying stocks that can roar back within four to six months assuming we don't botch the vaccine roll out now i think you have to buy a couple of these vaccine winners in any weakness although when it comes to retail i just say well buy something period because there's no time to wait for dip as you will see later on in the show although it's a different list now i'm going to give you don't look yet i'm going to give you a list of what i call the return to normalcy names okay that's uh was that return normally was that ron i'm giving you the ron john names all right here we go we're gonna start with aerospace wants me yeah i know oh take a screenshot of the prep you know what i'll take a screenshot of it you take one at home i'll do it here at work and that way i can always remember it since i wrote it perfect okay let's start with aerospace once we get the vaccine we're going to travel again and travel will be worldwide so what does that mean you could buy if you outthink any of these i'll crush you boeing i bet it shocks us with new orders plus it's a textbook buying stock because the company should get a big boost if the new president ratchets down the tensions with china which he will even blowing up six percent today uh you've missed nothing here this move has only just begun carpenters home depot stanley works stanley black and decker of course if you don't want a 211 stock you don't feel comfortable with fractional shares and you're not a robin hoodie well i got a robin hoodie name uh ten dollar stock general electric but you can join even if you're not a robin hood i've liked it since it was trading at seven bucks remember that for horse race and with that last health care acquisition they just made geez now finally playing offense then there's the chicken way to approach aerospace which is their own honeywell which supplies cockpits to pretty much everyone but it has a lot of other businesses let me get out of the way here this is too hot next we need an airline all right love southwest best run stock is welfare ties if you'd rather been on international travel go ahead with united i don't mind that said i vastly prefer boeing second group of vaccination winners people want to own the marginal retailers that are poised to make a comeback no matter what now i think this is a tough group because you've got to go through covid terrible right now i like macy's if you want to do that now jeff ganette put up some pretty good numbers last week how do i know that why because as their earnings before interest taxes depreciation amortization came in ahead of plan i don't mind that kohl's works too i'd have a decent quarter i'll give them that you can always go with the lag trade that's l brands american eagle outfit supports tomorrow and gap this is the one that's blessed by matt boss at jpmorgan upgraded gap today he's the best retail analyst he's been red hot you can go do some of these names remember these are the marginal names that do well holy how about this one i like tapestry very much that's the artist formerly known as coach pvh little ahead of itself but you can go for levi's as much as i love nike it's too consistent to make this list sorry nothing marginal about nike forget consistency the biggest vaccine winners are the inconsistent growers episodic i call them that will thrive when people can shop in person again because they're on their uh their e-commerce business isn't that good stu stay tuned if you like e-commerce hey speaking of shopping how about federal realtor that's the top owner of shopping centers now ceo don wood came on the show recently he told us he wouldn't have to cut the dividend people laughed but if the vaccine is as close as experts say he'll be held as a conquering hero you want more risk go with simon property group the leading mall owner they agreed to buy another mall operator before the pandemic hit but they're able finally to renegotiate getting a 20 discount and just like when you go to the store and with the vaccine on the way that's a much more attractive deal people lap this one up it's a very robin hoody name you should see the stock between 4 and 5 a.m it goes crazy okay how about this ulta ulta's roaring hey estee lauder nice run after an amazing quarter of course target they're all vaccine stocks and they're all headed higher if people start start getting vaccinated by mid-january target's finally getting the recognition deserves for being more consistent operator i like that old target tie-up how about you meanwhile estee lauder is the best if you think the whole world's going to open up something that's a real possibility if astrazeneca can deliver on that three billion doses promise think about all the do free speaking of the vaccines we still need to get it to people more on that later but in terms of stock picking the pharmacy is too risky being targeted by the death star also known as amazon instead go with mckesson the top drug distributor that's hailing the vaccines they're excellent at what they do and they should be far more consistent than the pharmacies next up we're really cutting through them now aren't we hey where you going on vacation easy we're going to disneyland which will at last probably be open uh california's got to shut down there's so much good happening here with disney plus their subscription streaming service you can buy it on the strength of that alone once the theme parks and movie theaters reopen this one's an obvious winner it doesn't make it weatherman to know which way the wind blows even if the vaccine delayed it doesn't matter they've got enough cash to wait this out they were very prudent hey speaking of prudent who's raised a lot of money the cruise ships now these aren't my favorite after the massive amount of stock that they've offered but traders can't get enough of them norwegian crews just issued a big slug of equity 40 million shares activation means nothing to this whole horde of younger buyers they think it's good royal caribbean is always in the running for number two i'm putting carnival last but the stock exploded higher today a vaccine also means we can go out to dinner again i guess however there's not going to be a stimulus bill this year and even if biden can wrangle out one of congress next year it'll be too late to save many of the independent restaurants that we like so much sorry so stick with the larger change jordan the parent of olive garden they're not going anywhere how about texas rhode island so i'll meet you there then there's oil now i've said there are only two investable oil stocks pioneer and chevron i say stick with them even as the whole group is getting a boost i think pioneers acquisition of parsley's brilliant and we know that chevron's doing great other than those two i don't want to go near the rest of the oil comics can you believe me someone came to me with the mlps today uh my friend matt horwitz my writing partner i think the mlps probably work but i don't have the guts to recommend them to auto complex another story news they're all working i don't even care anymore general motors keeps breaking out today it got a boost because it finally stopped trying to fight california's more stringent fuel efficiency standards way to go i think tesla's got more upside you don't need me to tell you that even as it just hit new high i like some of the auto derivatives like illinois tool works dupont nxp semis although they've been all running you know i have loved everything electric and hydrogen based and i've come to you endlessly talking about them but today's moves led by the usual robin hoodies were so insanely positive that even though they might not be done you just have to take something off the table you can't let these gains turn into losses there's so many of them that moved all you got to do is just well whatever finally this market loves the financials because the vaccines mean more spending if that's the case i say go with visa mastercard or american express skip the actual banks that need net interest margin higher if you think the whole world's going to open up i pick mastercard meanwhile american express is up usually after after a merely okay quarter seems overextended to me then again you can say that about square and paypal they're on fire because they take bitcoin the first bank that wants to make a big market in crypto can see it's stock flight too but they're too stodgy they're too worried they're too scared they won't do it i'll come back to these vaccine winners over and over again as we're now in the sweet spot where earnings are almost over and we're going to have visions of sugar plums dancing in our heads no matter what i pick two or three of these names then wait for the next piece of bedrooms to freak people out so you can buy them into weakness you merge the up stocks with these stocks remember these are the stocks that are cyclical and you merge it with the up stocks and you do well the bottom line for months i've been telling you that you need a barbell portfolio to cope with coven meaning you want some stocks that benefit from the pandemic and some of the stocks that benefit from return to normalcy rtn called run return to normalcy right rtn ooh it used to be the old raytheon if you just own the stay-at-home names you got pushed by today but don't worry i think you'll get another chance to pick up some of these vaccine winners at lower level
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