저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
연준이 대차대조표를 축소하기 전에 경기가 약해져 금융위기가 올 것이며, 그러면 통화공급이 다시 폭증해 인플레이션이 재가속한다고 주장. 인플레이션은 정부의 증세 회피 수단(세금 역할)이며 재정 긴축과 실질금리 상승이 필요하다고 봄. 2022년 고점 경신을 2023~2024년 내 예상. 파산·실업이 늘어나는 '인플레이션성 불황' 경고. 명목상 주가는 오르더라도 금 기준 실질 주가는 하락하고, 거품 종목이 지수를 끌어내려 S&P500이 10년 말 더 낮을 수 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
We need a much bigger contraction in the money supply uh than we've got and we're not going to get it because the problem is before the Fed makes any real headway in shrinking its balance sheet, the economy is going to be so weak, I mean either we're going to be in another financial crisis or on the cusps of one that the Fed is going to reverse and before you know it, the money supply is going to be exploding again.
Except it's not going to be exploding when inflation is below 2%. it's going to be exploding when it's still well above 2% and then that's going to help send it, you know, up into the stratosphere. Inflation is here to stay. I think we're going to take out the highs from 2022 before the end of 2023 on a year-over-year basis.
But, you know, even if we don't take out the highs in 2023, we'll take them out in 2024. Right? The days of, you know, sub 2% or anywhere near 2% inflation are over. We're now going to pay the piper uh for decades of inflation that uh central banks have created. Uh and now we're going to have to deal with the consequences.
You have to realize that we have erected a entire phony economy on a foundation of inflation. So if we're going to rid the economy of inflation, we have to be prepared for that entire structure to topple. So there's going to be a lot of bankruptcies, there's going to be a lot of losses, there's going to be a lot of unemployment.
A lot of things are going to have to happen. It's not that you have to cause all this to stop inflation. It's just that if you do stop inflation, all this is going to happen because all of this was the result of inflation. Every time we've had a problem, the Fed's solution has been create more inflation.
Well, now the problem is inflation, right? The solution has become the problem. And you can't solve that problem with the same solution. You have to acknowledge that everything you did in the past to solve the problem actually made the problem worse. it just postponed the consequences until the future and you know we've caught up with it right we kept kicking the can down the road and now we've caught up to the can and and there's no more road so we have to be prepared for the collapse but also we have to understand that inflation is not here by accident inflation is a method by which government pays for spending can pay for spending through taxation or through inflation And our politicians and a lot of other politicians have chose inflation.
Why? Well, because the public doesn't realize that inflation is a tax. If the government raises taxes to pay for spending, then the public gets mad because they see the money coming out of their paychecks and they know where it's going. It's going to Washington. So, what happens is we run these big deficits.
Governments spend a lot of money. They don't raise our taxes. But now because they're printing money instead of just taking our money, but they're spending that new money into circulation, the price of everything goes up. We just don't realize that that's tax because the government could blame it on Putin or they could blame it on COVID, you know, whatever they want.
Greedy corporations gouging their customers. So if we want to stop taxing the people through inflation, we have to either tax them another way or we have to cut spending. In other words, we have to balance the budget. So, in order to fight inflation, the government is going to have to come clean and either raise taxes dramatically on the middle class and the working poor, which I don't think is a good policy.
The alternative, a better policy is to cut government spending, but it has to be widespread spending across the board. I mean, we just gave another what $45 billion check uh for the Ukraine. We don't have that money, you know? I mean, we we we should be trying to get peace in the Ukraine, not funding war with money that we don't even have.
I mean, if we're going to war against inflation, we, you know, we we can't do this. But we have to cut spending on everything. Medicare, Social Security, Obamacare, government pensions, military, we have to cut back on what we're spending on the military, right? Instead, we're spending more. Unless we get cuts to government spending, inflation is not going to come down.
And and of course the other thing that has to happen is that interest rates have to rise to a level that exceeds the inflation rate by a comfortable margin. What needs to happen in order to bring down inflation is we need people to stop spending and start saving. And so why would people save? Well, if they can earn a yield that exceeds the inflation rate, then they're going to get paid to save.
Then they'll do it. But if you still hold interest rates below the inflation rate, nobody's going to be dumb enough to save. Everyone's going to spend their money as soon as they get their hands on it, and that is going to make the inflation problem worse. Also, when you look at prices, you have two things going on.
You have demand, but then you also have supply. And so, demand is being fueled by money printing and spending. But we need more supply. Well, if we have less spending and more savings, you kill two birds with one stone because that reduces this the demand, but it increases supply because the money that is saved is then loaned out to businesses to make investments in capital that can increase productivity.
So, by encouraging savings and discouraging spending, we get less demand and more supply and that helps reduce prices. But we're not doing that. We're not getting extra savings, so we're not getting additional supply. And consumers are are running up their credit cards, their all-time record highs, maxed out on mortgage debt, maxed out on auto loans.
Everybody is borrowing and spending. So prices have got nowhere to go but up. What we're going to experience is going to be much worse than the 1970s. I've been calling it an inflationary depression because it's going to be much worse than a recession and it's going to be very high inflation. During the 1930s, we were on a gold standard.
So, we had real money and so we had a depression, but prices came down and prices coming down was actually a good thing. It provided some relief uh to uh people uh because the cost of living went down, the value of money went up. But, you know, a lot of people think that the reason we had a depression was because prices went down, which is not true.
Prices went down as a result of the the depression, but it didn't cause it. And in fact, it did provide some relief. But the whole idea that if prices are coming down, we should worry that it might cause a a recession is is nonsense. It's like, you know, trying to blame the rain on on wet sidewalks.
They have they have it they have it in reverse. But what's going to happen during this inflationary depression is going to be very different because we're not on a gold standard anymore. We're just on a we're on no standard. We just have fiat. and the government's going to print even more of it uh to try to prop everything up and bail everybody out and prevent politicians from having to make the difficult choices of cutting government spending.
They're just going to print money and give it to the government so they can spend that. Uh so it's, you know, it's going to be very different. I think that the nominal level of a lot of stocks, those prices are going to go up for a lot of stocks. Uh but in real terms, if you price them in gold, they're still going to go way down.
Uh so stock prices are going to come down in in terms of real money, but they're going to go up in terms of funny money. Now, some companies stock prices won't go up because these companies are going to go bankrupt, and so they go out of business. The stock is is zero. But also there's a lot of companies that are going to have to uh downsize or you know reduce their scale to try to find the point where they can operate properly you know on a on on a smaller scale.
But you know there's been a lot of stocks too that were so inflated during the bubble uh that they they still need to fall dramatically uh even if inflation is there you know this the prices of these stocks still have to come down a lot. Unfortunately, those stocks dominate the indexes. So, it's possible that the S&P 500 could end up lower at the end of the decade uh because of the the waiting of those stocks.
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