저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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중동 전쟁 리스크로 유가가 장기간 고공행진하며, 시장은 빠른 종전과 유가 급락을 기대하지만 틀렸다고 주장. 연준이 금리를 인상해야 할 상황에서 인플레가 실질금리를 낮춰 사실상 완화 효과가 나타나고 있어 금 강세 지속. 금은 4,800달러대에서 연말 6,000달러 이상 전망, 중앙은행·기관·개인 수요가 공급을 압도할 것으로 봄. 고유가는 소비 위축(디플레성 침체)을 유발하며, 진짜 위험은 중앙은행이 돈을 찍어 대응할 때 발생하는 인플레 위기라고 경고.
다듬은 글
I think they probably are underestimating it because if you look at, you know, stock market, look at the US stock market hitting new highs. I think stock market investors clearly expect a relatively quick resolution and a drop in oil prices and and so obviously the same expectation is likely in in the oil market.
Uh but if it turns out that this optimism is unfounded and the war is not over as quickly as people think or hope, the impact on oil prices is going to be greater. But I also think that I think that that people are are wrong to believe that oil prices are just going to come crashing down as soon as we, you know, have a peace deal.
Uh, I think that oil's going to stay higher for a lot longer and and the price was going to go up anyway, even if we didn't have a war. But I think the war has kind of raised the risk premium for quite some time. And I think it's also caused um, you know, nations, companies to start thinking about having more reserves just in case.
And so I think you're going to see a renewed demand from around the world to try to build up more reserves. So that's going to increase the demand for oil to to fill those reserves. I mean, maybe even the US will want to top up our reserves. They're very low right now given how much oil we sold under Biden.
So I I I think I think oil is going to be expensive and I think it's going to get a lot go a lot higher than than than people realize. Peter Schiff warns that markets are dangerously underestimating the impact of prolonged geopolitical tension on oil prices. While investors are expecting a quick resolution, Schiff believes oil will stay higher for longer due to increased global demand for reserves and persistent risk premiums.
This creates a structural shift, not a temporary spike, and markets are not ready for it. I just recently bought more uh a copper stock myself the other day. I mean, I I I want to own uh these these metals even though I have a bearish outlook on on the economy. And you know, you mentioned that the Fed is not cutting rates, which is true, but they're also not hiking rates, which they should be doing because if you look at what's happened to inflation over the past several years, I mean, not years, over the past several months, it's clear that inflation is going to be quite a bit higher than what the Fed had expected.
looking at money supply growth, look at the balance sheet growth, and then the Fed likes to look at the CPI at PPI. Well, look at these numbers. They're jumping up. You know, energy is a big part of that. You know, but even if you just look at the core, you're still seeing prices rising at double uh the Fed's 2% target.
So, the Fed should be hiking rates. They're not hiking rates. And and and so that is problematic that they're not hiking rates when they should be. And I think that's why, you know, people need to get out of dollars and out of treasuries and people should be buying gold. You know, gold was sold in part because the Fed wasn't cutting, but those traders were overlooking the fact that the market was doing the cutting.
That inflation going up is the equivalent of rates coming down if rates stay the same. Because it's real rates that are the driver here. And if inflation doubles, then real rates are cut in half, you know, unless the Fed doubles rates, you know, to maintain the relationship. So, I think I think we're I think we're in an easier money policy now despite the fact that the Fed hasn't cut nominal rates because the Fed has allowed a substantial reduction in real rates.
Schiff highlights a critical but overlooked point. Even if the Fed doesn't cut rates, rising inflation is effectively lowering real interest rates. This creates a hidden easing environment which is historically bullish for gold. Investors focusing only on nominal rates are missing the bigger picture.
I I think there's enough new buying coming into the market to absorb any of that selling. I think the main reason that you saw the big drop in March following the outbreak of the war was that gold had risen rather substantially in the preceding 2 months. I mean a tremendous rally really from 4,000 to 5,500 in in a few weeks.
Um and and part of that rally was anticipation of war with Iran because they were really you know uh you know waving the sabers around um you know for several weeks before we started the war. So it didn't come completely out of left field. Our troops were moving around our ships were you know the presence was there.
So gold started to rise or rose in part because people were worried about a war with Iran. So when the war finally happened, you know, people took profits, you know, buy the, you know, the rumor, sell on on the news, and that that that's what happened. Uh, but, you know, gold's around 47 $4,800 an ounce.
I mean, that's a pretty good price from where it was a couple years ago. And I think the trend is up. I I think gold is going to finish the year above 6,000. I don't think, you know, that the bull market is close to ending. Yes, some countries may need to sell some of their gold. That's what the reserve is for, to tap into when when you need it.
But more countries are going to be looking to build up their reserves. I think the central banks that have been buying gold, a lot of them are going to buy more. And I think the central banks that weren't buying gold are going to start buying it. And I also think a lot of private investors who haven't been buying gold are going to be buying it.
Institutional investors, retail investors, I think the demand is just going to go way up and that's going to overwhelm the supply. Despite short-term selling by some central banks, Schiff believes global demand for gold is about to surge. He argues that both institutional and retail investors are still underexposed and once they enter the market, demand will far exceed supply, driving prices significantly higher.
The demand destruction that stems from rising oil prices is not just in oil. In fact, it's I don't even think it's mainly in oil because people need energy. You need to, you know, you know, go from point A to point B. Uh stuff needs to get delivered. Uh people need to, you know, power their houses. Uh heat them, cool them.
Uh and a lot of these, you know, the fertilizers, you know, we we we need the farmers need that stuff. And yes, if gas is expensive enough, I can cut back. I don't have to take that vacation. Um, I can carpool with my neighbor. So, there is a way to reduce your energy consumption, but you can't just turn it off completely, right?
You you you you still need energy. But what I can turn off completely is other items that I that I used to buy but I now can't afford them because everything related to energy cost me more. So that's where the demand destruction is is in the discretionary items that I give up entirely so I can keep buying energy so I can keep the lights on and keep driving back and forth to work.
Right? So that's going to be the problem. And that's why rising oil prices, they're not inflationary, they're recessionary. What's inflationary is how a central bank responds to that. So if rising oil prices cause recession and then central banks print a lot of money and cut rates, that's what causes the inflation.
Now that causes all the prices to go up, not just the energy prices and energy related prices. Schiff explains that rising oil prices don't just cause inflation, they crush consumer spending. People are forced to cut discretionary expenses just to afford energy, leading to economic slowdown. The real danger comes when central banks respond by printing money, turning a recession into a full-blown inflation crisis.
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