Despite the macro, we're entering a golden age for cloud, says Wedbush's Dan Ives

요약 보기

클라우드 섹터는 실적 개선과 대규모 M&A 기대로 골든에이지에 진입했다는 결론. 클라우드 수요: 하이퍼스케일러(AWS·MS·구글) 성장 둔화가 안정화되었고, 전체 워크로드 중 클라우드 비중은 50% 미만이라 성장 여력이 크다고 주장. 가격 목표: 마이크로소프트 목표가를 290달러로 상향. 승자·패자: 클라우드 내 양극화가 진행 중이며 마이크로소프트·구글이 점유율을 확대하는 것으로 평가. M&A 전망: 전략적·재무적 인수자들이 M&A를 적극 검토 중이며 현 상황은 빙산의 일각이라고 주장. 후보로 링센트럴, 8x8, 알테릭스, C3.ai, 베라danger(Veeva 계열로 언급된 클라우드 종목) 등을 거론. WCLD ETF: 팬데믹 직전 수준에 근접했으며, 연말까지 클라우드 종목이 추가로 20~25% 상승할 것으로 전망. 이번 주 실적: 세일즈포스가 가장 중요한 바로미터이며, 스노우플레이크와 함께 랠리의 테스트가 될 것으로 봄. 스노우플레이크 공매도 비중은 약 5%. 리스크: 거시경제 환경과 공매도 숏커버링 중심 랠리 여부가 불확실성 요인.

다듬은 글

※ AI가 다듬은 글(오탈자·군말 정리)

클라우드 강세와 단기 매도 잔고

01. You're out with a new note looking at the cloud space. What do you think about this elevated level of short interest? Do you think some of this rally is simply short covering?

02. Look, no doubt. It sent the bears into hibernation mode. But Frank Garvey's earnings are much better than fear, and what we're seeing with growth in cloud is still going to be significant going into next year, as well as massive M&A. I think tech managers are underinvested. I believe the cloud rally continues and doesn't stop here.

하이퍼스케일러 수요와 지출 환경

03. Okay, we're going to get to M&A in just a second, but I want to touch on one of the big parts of the cloud that I think a lot of investors are invested in: the hyperscalers, that's Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet. You have your finger right on the pulse. What kind of demand are they seeing, and what kind of spending environment?

04. Yeah, and we just raised our price target on Microsoft to 290, because our view is we've seen a stabilization from hyperscale. Clearly you saw a deceleration for AWS, but we're seeing a lot of these large projects get done. Still, the thing to know is that less than 50 percent of workloads are in the cloud. That's bullish for Microsoft, bullish for Amazon, bullish for Google. That's a theme that has taken shape here, and it has a ripple effect for other cloud players and cybersecurity. It's a golden age for cloud in my opinion, despite the macro.

승자와 패자의 분화

05. You call it a golden age. You're saying about 45 to 50 percent of workloads are on the cloud, and you see that moving up to 70 percent over the next couple of years. But is it a rising tide that raises all boats, or are there going to be winners and losers?

06. I think you're currently going to have winners and losers. I'll call it a bifurcation. I do believe Microsoft is a share gainer, and from a hyperscale perspective I think Google is gaining a lot of share. When you look at the application and ecosystem, it's really going to be a Game of Thrones playing out here, and I think that's also going to lead to what I view as unprecedented M&A from both strategic and financial buyers. That's why the haters will continue to hate on cloud, but growth continues to move higher, and that's why these stocks have reacted the way they have so far this year.

클라우드 인수합병 후보

07. Let's talk a little M&A. We've heard a lot of cloud players either hand M&A or directly say they're looking at M&A to bolster their offerings, especially when it comes to AI. Last year they were looking to bolster cybersecurity or security in general. We just saw Sumo Logic taken off the market in a take-private deal with Francisco Partners. What are the next stocks that might be possible targets for M&A?

08. Look, I think this is now, when you look at names like RingCentral, that's a big one that plays out. 8x8 and Alteryx, I think also C3, where they play on AI, could be a potential M&A name, and Veeva on cloud. This is like an old-school prom trying to match potential shooters. What we're seeing here is strategic and financial buyers sharpening the pencil on M&A, and cloud is the tip of the iceberg in my opinion.

WCLD ETF와 투자 판단

09. I've been looking at the WCLD ETF. It's trading just slightly above where it was three years ago today, right before the pandemic really got underway. Right now, if you're an investor, would you put money into this ETF that's basically trading at a pre-pandemic level?

10. In my opinion, it's a golden age for cloud. That's why you invest in these names. The naysayers will continue to be there, but I believe cloud stocks are ultimately up another 20 to 25 percent this year.

다음 주 실적 발표와 전망

11. We've got a big series of earnings coming up next week. Salesforce might be the biggest one. Snowflake, I just referenced it. I spoke to Cal, and they believe it's going to be a test of this rally. Short interest for Snowflake is only about 5 percent, and it's also a consumption model. Can you give us a sense of what you think about the earnings coming up next week? Is it really an inflection point for cloud stocks, or just earnings?

12. I think it's an inflection point. Snowflake clearly has key numbers, but Salesforce is really the drumroll. That's a massive activist situation, but it's one of the best barometers for cloud spending. When you look at Snowflake and specifically Salesforce, I think that's going to be better than fear, and so what I would call stabilization going into the next six to nine months. That's the key right now on cloud.