저자: KenzieSagalos · 외국인
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OpenAI와 AMD가 파트너십을 체결, OpenAI가 최대 1억6천만주(약 10% 지분) 워런트를 1센트에 받고 1GW 규모 AMD Instinct GPU를 2026년부터 6GW까지 도입하는 구조. 발표 후 AMD 주가 급등(약 25%), 시총 60억달러 이상 증가. OpenAI는 Nvidia 1000억달러 투자, Broadcom 커스텀칩 협업 등 공급망 다변화 중. 다만 GW당 약 500억달러 소요로 자금 부족이 지적되며 부채 조달 필요성이 제기됨.
다듬은 글
We do have some breaking news right now. I want to get straight to it. It's a new AI partnership and it is fascinating. Uh AMD's stock is surging. Open AAI and AMD getting together this after OpenAI of course uh doing a deal just a week ago, week and a half ago now with Nvidia. Uh Kenzie Sagalos has the details on all of it.
What's happening here? So Andrew, OpenAI is teaming up with AMD in a partnership that could give Sam Alman startup a 10% stake in the chipmaker virtually for free. Now, the rollout starts with 1 gawatt of AMD's Instinct GPUs in 2026 and expands to 6 gawatt across multiple hardware generations. Now, as part of this arrangement, OpenAI receives up to 160 million shares of AMD stock through performance-based warrants priced at just 1 cent each, compared to AMD's current trading price of around $165.
Now, those shares vest as deployments grow, but both companies are also billing it as a massive win for AMD, which has trailed Nvidia for years. It's also a clear sign that OpenAI doesn't want to be dependent on just one supplier. This is all about OpenAI locking in the supply chain that it needs to scale, and it comes within weeks of cutting a 100 billion dollar deal with Nvidia.
It's also in talks to build custom chips with Broadcom and comes as OpenAI plans a trillion dollar plus infrastructure buildout across chips, data centers, and custom silicone. It is a tightly wound circular economy and one that analysts fear could face real strain if any link in the chain starts to weaken.
Guys, so can we just discuss this is in many ways the opposite of Nvidia when Nvidia invested effectively in open AAI in this instance. Open AI is getting shares in AMD. But I also imagine OpenAI is going to have to pay for the access to these to these chips and these data centers that are going to have these chips.
Open AAI using Nvidia's funds to turn around and fund their competitor. Well, so that's that's an interesting element to it too. But the question is sort of ultimately where is all the money going to come from? Because even with the money that it's it's getting from Nvidia, for example, by my math, it still doesn't have all of this money.
Yeah, great question. So, let's start with how it's going to pay for it. The $100 billion worth of equity that Nvidia is putting into OpenAI is also pegged to certain buildout milestones being met. It's going rolling out in 10 billion increments per gigawatt. Now that goes into a pool of cash that OpenAI can spend on anything that it wants to and is not contractually obligated to give it all back to Nvidia.
So yes, ostensibly that could also go to AMD to buy their chips. And yes, they are buying the chips uh from AMD directly which is separate to this equity arrangement. Now in terms of how they're going to pay for it, yes, there is a huge shortfall. Each gigawatt is roughly $50 billion. So 35 billion typically goes to the chipmaker.
the other 15 billion is roughly what the data center uh buildout requires. Now to pay for that, I was talking to Sarah Frier two weeks ago and she says that equity is too expensive to hand out. So it's all about debt. And so that $100 billion investment deal uh investment from Nvidia gives them leverage at the bank because they're not cash flow positive.
And Andrew, well, I mean, your entire team has talked to Sam Alman about the fact that he has no intention of becoming profitable anytime soon because his goals are so ambitious and that requires additional compute buildout. And so where where ultimately do you see the money coming from? I mean, I I I hear you saying it's it's going to come in the form of debt.
We obviously saw, you know, a company like Oracle take on, I think, $17 billion in new debt. We haven't seen we haven't seen classic debt being taken on, right, by um by by by like OpenAI, for example. Not yet. But the other piece of this I I'm going to head pretty soon to Dev Day, which is OpenAI's big event.
bringing in 1,500 plus developers and that's another play here for them. Sam Alman is looking to monetize the tech that they have. So one last week they had this e-commerce strategy announced where they're basically cutting deals with merchants to get a portion of transaction revenue. It's starting with Etsy.
It's growing to Shopify, but this is an ambition that Sam Alman has talked about for a very long time. He brought Fiji Simo in house and she is someone who is just known uh during her meta days of being able to turn product into revenue engines. Now, it's not going to look the same as what she did at the social media giant, but she is trying to invent new ways to make money.
You saw the Sora app. It's now number one in the Apple App Store. This is the video generation software tool, and it's still highly gated, but there's a lot of interest there. Altman specifically said this could also be a good monetization engine. But I brought up DevDay because ultimately they want more killer apps built on top of OpenAI's bones because to your point, Andrew, they don't have enough cash debt.
I mean, they haven't taken on debt yet. And even if they do, that's not going to be enough. But the company is projecting for 120 billion in revenue by 2030. And this is a big part of that strategy. I mean, that is a staggering amount of market cap gain in AMD. That's that's over $60 billion. So so much for Intel catching up.
It was it was coming back a little bit. It was 160 back to 170 billion. This takes AMD from 270 or so billion well up into the 300 billion plus uh range. That is that is an an amazing move in one day for I mean shareholders must be AMD shareholders are like glad they they don't have the Mondays McKenzie they don't have the
they don't and they are they've got the Fridays uh but this is a huge endorsement of their entire Instinct GPU line because this is not a one-off deal. This is OpenAI committing to buying several generations of this tech and it is a leg up that AMD needed. Look at that 330 billion. Yeah. Is this I mean you mentioned that this is them trying to diversify the supply chain.
I guess they've been doing that on every level trying to make sure that it's not just Microsoft they're reliant on. This has been their new strategy for a while. Yeah. I mean that Microsoft relationship is a big part of how they unlock unlock the $40 billion trunch of cash in that soft bankled round.
Now they've got a term sheet. We don't know what that looks like because the Microsoft relationship, one part of it is commercial and so we know that they would like to revise down that 20% revenue share that they're currently giving to Microsoft when they make enterprise sales. I've talked to Brad Lycap their COO who's been leading their goto market team and that's scaled from uh up to 700 people in the last 18 months from a couple dozen.
It's been pretty tremendous the effort that they've made on that front. Um but separately to that Microsoft I mean once their biggest in investor their biggest partner uh listed them with the SEC as a key AI rival. So we've seen this relationship evolve in the last year. McKenzie one of the things I'm trying to understand here is whether you believe and maybe you know or don't know I don't know the answer to this whether Nvidia knew when it made this deal a week and a half ago now that or maybe two weeks ago that this was possible.
OpenAI has made no secret of the fact Sarah Frier openly talking about the fact that they plan to diversify their chip strategy. I asked her in Abalene, Texas whether or not that preferred provider language that they you used with Nvidia meant that they were exclusive and she said no, we plan to use AMD chips.
I mean, for weeks now, they've been talking to Broadcom about building a custom chip that might uh lead to even more effective compute if it's designed with a proprietary model in mind that would fit with OpenAI's LLM specifically. So, I don't think that there's any secret there that they were going to diversify.
Now, I mean, someone who might have been more surprised was Microsoft when they heard about some of these compute buildouts because historically OpenAI was getting all of its compute power from Azure and then they announced this $300 billion deal with Oracle and and that was the week that we saw the term sheet come from Microsoft and Open AAI which is the thing that we were waiting for in terms of negotiating the relationship uh between those two partners.
So that would be interesting to me and I don't have the answer to that but it's a question that I'm asking.
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