저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
현재 거대한 금융 버블이 진행 중이며 1982년부터 40년 넘게 이어진 자산 인플레이션이 끝나가고 있다고 주장. 미국 대형 기술·엔터·반도체주는 부정적으로 보고, 홍콩·중국 및 신흥국 저평가 자산을 선호. 금·은·백금·광산주는 상대적으로 저렴하다고 봄. 미국 물가지표(BLS)를 신뢰하지 않으며 실질 생활비 상승이 훨씬 높다고 주장.
다듬은 글
So, I see a giant financial bubble, the biggest financial bubble in history since the 14th century. Well, my point of view is a bit different. I think we are at the end of a more than 40-year period of asset inflation that began essentially in 1982 for stocks at the August low of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
We were at 780, and in '81 we had a peak in interest rates in the United States, when 10-year Treasury bonds were yielding over 15%. And since then, asset prices have risen significantly. We also had consumer price inflation, but not as much as asset inflation. But recently, uh, things have changed, changed somewhat in the sense that asset prices are no longer rising everywhere.
We had a serious decline in asset prices. For example, commercial real estate in the US, which has been a safe investment for a long period of time, and nobody, uh, I don't know anyone who predicted that commercial real estate in America would fall as much as it has in the last four years. I mean, I've seen real estate in Los Angeles.
They cost 100 million. You can't sell them for 20 million now. The answer is complicated. But the problem with monetary inflation, and we live in a period of monetary inflation, is that the price level in the economy does not increase regularly and everywhere. But there is something that is growing strongly.
Hmm. And something else that falls and then changes. For example, in 2023, the price of cocoa increased dramatically. Coffee has increased by 84% this year. OK. So, you know, and that's the danger of this monetary inflation, and central banks don't know where the liquidity is going, and where it's creating an asset bubble, and where it's creating asset deflation.
Therefore, in my opinion, investors should be very careful, because in the future there will be great volatility , some asset prices will increase significantly, while others will fall sharply. I mean, I'm very negative about the Magnificent Seven, entertainment stocks, and semiconductor stocks , which are very popular.
On the other hand, I am very interested in Sino-Chinese and Hong Kong assets. And I got my name Doctor Doom in Hong Kong because I always had a very negative attitude towards Hong Kong, especially after the handover in 1997. But Hong Kong assets are very cheap right now, and I would buy Hong Kong assets right now.
I think they have the potential to grow the stock by, say, 50-100% quite easily. Also, other emerging markets are cheap, except for India, while the US has relatively high prices. So if I evaluate the rest of the world, Europe, Latin America, Asia, relative to the US, the gap in evaluation is as wide as ever.
So I would buy cheap assets and avoid expensive ones. Yes, there is always a risk. Uh, there's also a risk if something happens in the South China Sea. Uh, would the lakes in America, uh, in the Great Lakes region, be resilient to an American attack on China or a conflict between Taiwan and China. So I'm just telling you, uh, in my opinion, the Chinese market is certainly going to get hurt, but I think American and European stocks are going to get hurt really badly as well.
I wouldn't be too cautious about financial assets because if you look at the world as something that size and then take the financial market, for most of human history or capitalist history the financial market was actually smaller than real world GDP. For example , in the 1970s, the capitalization of the US stock market as a percentage of the economy was between 20 and 30%.
Now we have 160% or something like that. So, the financial market in the world has expanded much more than the real economy, and in particular, public debt as a percentage of the economy has ballooned. So I see a giant financial bubble, the biggest financial bubble in history since the 14th century.
Wow. We are in the midst of it now, and one day it will blow up really badly. The government reports GDP growth of 2-3%. And most people struggle to survive because the cost of living is rising faster than their wages or earnings. And in this way the government can hide the fact that in reality most people are already in a recession.
GDP is growing. Perfectly. Because the government uses an inflation adjustment calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And as I told you, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is a lying agency. They don't tell you what the real increase in the cost of living is. They tell you a number that is lower.
Most people know that their cost of living has increased by 5-12% annually, not 2%. And most people, I guarantee you, no one I've ever met in my life has ever said that their health care costs have gone down. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics does it. Maybe you're defending the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
You can do it. Do you understand? You know the facts. Yes. Yes. In fact, even if you don't adjust for inflation, John Williams of the shadow statistician will say that he has inflation of about 10% per year in the United States, but, uh, in my experience, it's more like 10% than 3%. I don't know. I don't live in the USA.
But I can say that the US has become very expensive because in restaurants you have to tip and then give something more, and by the time you leave, a simple dinner has become prohibitively expensive. Look at the statistics of all these fast food chains. McDonald's now feels like a fancy dinner. Well, I have the same expectations as I have for the last 30 years.
I think gold and silver will maintain their purchasing power. Let's say if I bought an ounce of gold for $35 in 1970, there would be 2,700 of us. So if for the last, uh , 70 years I've been in prison and then I've come out of prison and all my money was in gold. The money I deposited retained its purchasing power.
I can say this, and I believe some people say gold is cheap and some say it is expensive. In monetary inflation, which I want to emphasize, everything becomes murky and opaque, you know, you can't tell if it's expensive or cheap, it's very difficult, yes, but you can compare, say, this item with that, yes, with this, and then you can say that this is relatively cheap compared to this, and this is relatively more expensive compared to this.
So, uh, we can make connections. Uh, one correlation I can make is take all the financial assets in the world, the stock market capitalization, the lending activity of banks, and the bond market, and then I compare that to the amount of gold, let's say, that's above ground right now . Er, the amount of gold in the monetary system is relatively small by historical standards.
I can take, say, gold and say that gold is relatively expensive compared to the price of wheat, corn, beans, soybeans, wheat, corn, and soybeans. Or I can take the price of gold and say that it is relatively expensive compared to a barrel of oil. So, we can establish all kinds of relationships. I hold gold because it's hard for me to hold five tons of wheat, and it's hard for me to hold 100 tons of oil.
So, I own physical gold, and in the realm of gold, you can also compare it to silver and platinum. Platinum is the cheapest, very cheap right now, and I'm very bullish on platinum in the next, let's say, 5 years, but, uh, I can also compare gold and other financial assets to gold stocks, mining stocks .
Mining stocks are very cheap compared to everything else. So as an investor you can put some money in mining stocks if you want to invest in depressed companies, or you can invest in China or Hong Kong, or emerging markets and some European markets. Here's what I would do. What other people do is their business.
Do you understand? Everyone has their own investment goal. Every year, some goods become more expensive than others. In 2023, the price of cocoa. In 2024, people might notice this when they go to buy coffee for breakfast, the price of coffee has increased by 84%. And some goods fell, and some moved sideways.
Gold and silver rose by about 30 %. But, uh, I think it's easier for ordinary investors to hold gold and gold- related assets than, you know, wheat, corn, soybeans, right? But I own companies that are agricultural , food companies. I'm actually quite positive about some food products, and in my case, because of my own habits, I think that beverage companies, beer and spirits companies like Quantro and so on, these are relatively low times, still a bit expensive, but I think the financial system will collapse and then people will be so depressed that they will go back to smoking and drinking because there's a cultural change going on right now .
If you go to bars, they are less frequented than five years ago because young people are drinking less. Why ? Accessibility. They go and buy drinks at about 7/11. And bars , I mean, I'm an expert on bars. Things are not going very well for them. With some exceptions. With some exceptions.
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