저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 샤프는 샌더스가 대통령이 되면 재정적자와 통화 발행이 폭증해 금 가격이 2020년 대선 직후 하루 만에 2,000달러를 넘고, 달러 기축통화 지위가 무너진다고 주장한다. 금 가격 전망: 1월 말 금 시세는 온스당 약 1,573달러로 7년 고점(1,594.70달러) 부근이며, 샤프는 대선 전 2,000달러 돌파도 가능하다고 봄. 다만 JP모건 분석(2003년 사스 사례)에서는 금이 3개월간 8% 상승했으나 당시 이라크 침공과 연준 완화가 영향을 키웠다고 지적됨. 이 분석의 금 전망은 1,650~1,715달러 수준으로 샤프보다 보수적임. 정책 전망: 샌더스 공약(부유층 증세, 학자금 대출 1조 달러 탕감, 그린뉴딜)은 재정적자를 확대시킬 것이며, 샤프는 적자가 연 3~4조 달러에 이르고 통화 발행이 과도해질 것으로 예상. 공화당의 반대도 약해질 것이라고 봄. 재정 여건: 올해 미국 재정적자는 1조 달러를 넘을 전망으로, 대침체 이후 처음 그 수준에 도달. 연준 전망: 연준은 기준금리를 1.50~1.75%로 동결할 가능성이 높다는 것이 CME 페드워치 기준 87.27%. 그러나 샤프는 연준이 결국 금리를 0%까지 인하하고 대차대조표가 4.5조 달러를 넘어 폭발할 것으로 봄. 레포시장 안정을 위해 단기 국채를 약 4,000억 달러 매입한 것이 사실상 양적완화라는 해석도 언급됨. 달러 전망: 샤프는 샌더스 집권 시 달러의 기축통화 지위가 유지되지 않으며 미국의 생활수준이 크게 악화될 것이라고 주장. 대선 여론: 최근 여론조사 평균에서 바이든 28.7%, 샌더스 23.3%, 워런 14.9%. 월요일 아이오와 코커스가 예비선거 판도의 단서가 될 것이라는 내용. 리스크·조건: 중동 긴장과 중국 코로나 발생이 금 가격을 밀어올린 요인으로 언급됨. 샤프의 2,000달러 예측은 샌더스 당선을 전제로 한 조건부 전망. 출연자 전망: 샤프는 금 강세와 달러 약세를 강하게 주장하는 금 강세론자.
다듬은 글
Bernie Sanders has been cutting into former Vice President Joe Biden's LED in the Democratic primary race an economist and noted gold-bug Peter Schiff says the precious metal would surge if the self-proclaimed Democratic socialists were elected to the White House if Sanders becomes president in 2020 the price of gold will be well above two thousand dollars on the day after election night shift said in a Monday interview with Fox Business gold was trading around one thousand five hundred seventy three dollars per ounce Tuesday morning after touching a seven-year high one thousand five hundred ninety four dollars and seventy cents Monday the price has slowly crept up amid recent tensions in the Middle East and the outbreak of the corona virus in China he actually thinks the precious metal could hit that $2,000 mark before the election if the market is already projecting a Sanders win over incumbent President Donald Trump in a head-to-head vote Sanders beat out Trump forty eight percent to forty two percent in the most recent Fox News poll what a Sanders win means as much bigger government deficits and much more money printing by the Fed because there is no way to finance all of the spending that will happen with tax hikes on the rich Schiff said will get tax hikes on the rich but they're not going to provide the revenue to pay for the programs the US budget deficit is on track to top one trillion dollars this fiscal year which would be the first time it has hit that mark since the Great Recession Schiff thinks the deficit would balloon even more understandest because he wouldn't face enough opposition when it comes to spending which has been the case under trump as well there is gonna be no Republican opposition to the deficits that would finance the spending because after all the Republicans didn't object to record deficits under trump when the economy was supposedly the greatest ever Schiff said the deficits could be three or four trillion dollars a year and the money printing will be off the charts some of Sanders other proposals include eliminating $1 trillion in student loan debt and funding hugely expensive projects like the green New Deal to fight climate change which would only increase the deficit even further shift doesn't think the corona virus outbreak has been much of a factor in the price of gold rising despite the tendency for investors to flee to the precious metal as a safe haven when uncertainty hits the market when looking back at the SARS outbreak in 2003 JP Morgan analysts found gold rose more than eight percent in the three months after the World Health Organization issued a travel advisory but they found the US invasion of Iraq and the Federal Reserve's easy money policy at the time muddy the water immensely their projections for gold's future were not nearly as optimistic as shifts with the price hitting 1,650 $5 per ounce there may be 1715 dollars looking at the Federal Reserve which meets this week to discuss monetary policy gold investors will want to watch for how the central bank intends to rein in its action in the repo markets the Fed will most likely keep its key interest rate policy steady at a range of 1.5% to 1.75 percent but it has expanded its balance sheet by around four hundred billion dollars recently through the purchase of Treasury bills to help stabilize the short-term repo market in what some are calling stealth quantitative easing the CM e Fed watch tool predicts an eighty seven point two seven percent chance the Federal Reserve sticks to the current one point five percent to one point seven five percent interest rate at this week's FOMC meeting and Schiff thinks the Fed will continue its easing and even cut rates to zero at some point which he says will make the balance sheet explode to much higher than the four and a half trillion that they tapered from that in turn will kill the US dollar and a Sanders presidency won't help its case either Schiff argues there's no way the dollars reserve status will survive a Sanders presidency Schiff said America is going to be a much much poorer nation our standard of living is going to implode but the money printing is going to be crazy Sanders has a solid hold on second place in the latest Real Clear Politics polling average with 23 point three percent of the vote Biden remains the front-runner with twenty eight point seven percent of the vote while Elizabeth Warren rounds out the top three with fourteen point nine percent of votes monday marks the first Democratic caucus in Iowa which could paint a picture of how the rest of the primary race will shake out going forward let's block ads why
Comments 0