Nothing Scares Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach More Than Bernie Sanders

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2020년은 2019년보다 수익률이 둔화될 것이며 변동성이 큰 해가 될 것이라는 전망. 대선 관련 리스크와 재정적자 우려를 강조하고 달러 약세·신흥국/원자재 우위, 금 보유, 장기채 약세를 예상함. 결론: 2020년은 변동성 큰 해이며 금·신흥국·원자재에 유리, 장기채와 BB등급 회사채는 약세 전망. 거시 전망: 2020년은 이전보다 둔화된 수익률을 보이고 'roaring 20s'도 'barring 20s'도 아닌 변동성 높은 시기가 될 것이라고 봄. 대선 리스크: 샌더스가 민주당 후보가 되고 트럼프가 본선에서 이길 것으로 예상하며, 샌더스 지지가 강해지면 금융시장 매도 압력이 생길 수 있다고 우려. 재정적자: 미국 재정적자의 GDP 대비 수준이 이전 큰 불황기 재정부양 때에만 나타났던 수준이며, 샌더스 공약이 시행되면 적자가 기록 수준으로 확대되어 장기 국채와 주식이 흔들릴 수 있다고 봄. 경기침체: 2020년 경기침체 확률을 30~35%로 제시하며, 고용과 소비가 제조업 약세를 상쇄할 가능성이 크다고 봄. 통화정책: 연준 등 중앙은행은 인플레이션 지표가 오르지 않는 한 완화적 기조를 유지할 것이며, 이 경우 장기채 금리(10년물)는 하락할 것으로 예상. 연준 인상 가능성은 매우 낮다고 봄. 다만 연준 조작이 없다면 금리는 상승했을 것이라고 발언. 금: 금 가격 상승과 인플레이션 기대 회복 신호를 언급하며 포트폴리오에 금을 영구 배분할 것을 권고. 달러·해외: 미국 쌍둥이 적자(재정+무역)와 연준 완화로 달러가 추가 약세를 보일 것이며, 이는 신흥국과 원자재에 유리하다고 봄. 비미국 시장이 2020년 미국 증시를 상회할 것으로 전망. 비트코인: 단기적으로 상승할 것으로 전망. 신용: BB등급 및 BB 등급 회사채에 대해 등급 하락과 높은 밸류에이션을 이유로 약세 전망.

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01. double line CEO Jeffrey Gundlach photographed by Matt Winkle Meyer Getty Images Jeffrey Boone Locke sees a year of more muted returns in 2020 than in 2019 when assets from stocks to bonds to Bitcoin all soared in a webcast on Tuesday afternoon the double one Capital CEO and chief investment officer discussed his outlook for 2020 and beyond despite his forecast for harder to find returns Boone Locke doesn't expect the coming year to be uneventful I don't think it's going to be the barring 20s nor do I think it's going to be the roaring 20s Boone Locke said I think it's going to be a highly volatile period he sees the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election as a looming risk for US stocks gundlach expects Sen first Sanders signs VT to win the Democratic Party nomination and president Donald Trump to win the general election as long as the economy holds up he worries that should Sanders candidacy becomes stronger financial markets would sell-off in response Gundlach noted that the u.s.

02. government budget deficit is at levels relative to gross domestic product that have previously occurred only in times of fiscal stimulus at the depths of previous recessions if Sanders is elected and implemented Gundlach sees his progressive platform expanding that deficit to record levels if people get more worried about Bernie Sanders and they start to price in his spending programs then you could really start to see trouble in both long-term Treasury bonds and stocks which could really be on a rough ride he said Gundlach sees some risk of a recession in 2020 which he pegs at a 30 percent to 35 percent probability most likely however strengthen the job market and consumer spending will outweigh weakness in the US manufacturing sector he said newsletter signup the Federal Reserve and other central banks will be committed to keeping monetary policy accommodative in 2020 as long as they don't see their preferred measure of inflation moving up he said that happens he sees longer-term bonds like the 10-year Treasury note falling I think the pattern here should be a steeper yield curve with the Fed very unlikely to raise rates and with gold going up and inflation expectations starting to show some signs of life and the supply of long-term bonds still bigger than ever Gundlach said I think organically without fed manipulation interest rates would be rising gyoon Locke expects non-us markets to outperform US stock says the dollar weakens similar to the call he made in early 2019 the dollar remained relatively flat last year however and non-us developed in emerging markets while posting respectable gains fell short of their US counterparts in 2020 and Beyond Gundlach sees foreign investors withdrawing from the US putting pressure on the dollar a deeper u.s.

03. twin deficit government deficit plus trade deficit plus a Fed and easing mode should weaken the dollar further he said a falling dollar in 2020 will favour emerging markets and commodities according to Gundlach Gundlach also sees bitcoin going higher in the near term and recommended a permanent allocation to gold in investors portfolios he bearish on BB and BB be rated corporate credit given declining quality and stretched valuations right - Nicholas Jasinski at Nikolas top Jasinski at barons comm let's block ads why