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all right guys welcome back to two super gas trade stocks i'm vinnie i'm dylan today we're going to talk about a little bit of an inflation update it's kind of a big time period right now for inflation uh the federal reserve december meeting is ongoing as we as we record this video this is uh december 14th though actually going to include the meeting tomorrow so that'll be the big day as far as statements go and how the federal reserve addresses inflation going forward but i want to hit a couple news articles about it and talk about it and if you like this kind of entertaining stock content where's two stupid guys trying to figure everything out give us a like and subscribe that will get to two it guys tree stocks all right so this is the uh the cpi this is uh the headline number that was in the news articles over the the past like few days came out i think was last thursday or friday 6.8 percent that's low right yeah yeah really low compared to like this baseline graph just look at it right right behind your face there you know all of a sudden it spikes up it's kind of going into like a qrs complex for anyone out there that works in medicine it's funny it's uh like the opposite of my portfolio yeah yeah yeah that's that's i mean that's what happens when you try to short the cues and uh tlt puts it work today yeah exactly but so this is what the headline was like said six point eight percent highest highest rate since 1982 40 years basically is how long it's taken us to get back to this level which is pretty insane yeah okay uh there it is in visual without uh dylan and i stupid face over the front of it yeah what's this dip here that right there would have been the 2008 recession the great recession as they call it interesting yeah you know what's funny though is uh back up for one second the uh you know dylan you know i don't know about you dylan but like you know i was born back in 85 so this this is the highest level of inflation in my life if you think about it from that standpoint oh that's fair i'm uh i'm i'm right around this area so i i experienced this technically yeah i don't know if i i didn't know what was happening but yeah the formula went through the roof and dylan didn't know why um so you know larry summers lawrence summers here actually was a former head of the treasury and he came out and i thought this was absolutely like got blindsided me a little bit saying that the defenders should raise rates four times next year this is a interview he did with bloomberg here uh do you think about four uh interest rate hikes next year well let me ask you a question here here vinnie sure how is that going to affect my tlt puts that i have had i still have 14 months of expiration on those bad boys well i would tell you that uh since you know the return and the price are kind of inversely related there that they would be potentially good for your uh tlt puts potentially interesting so you're saying double down all my money no that is not what i'm saying i'm saying good luck i heard double down on it sell my football steak do that got it you're fighting jerome powell and his like printing press you know the name powell i'd win in a fight no problem yeah yeah i believe it especially you know if this omicron thing keeps up and uh you know they have to go back into qe of some sort yeah don't even think about it all right next slide so it's been a while since we kind of looked at this chart but i wanted to take a peek at it again this is the money supply m2 money supply uh still beautiful nice upper trajectory there you know if only our portfolios look the same way this is the amount of money in existence this is that jerome powell printing press this is where that stack comes from that like 90 of money or whatever was printed like the last three years or so i can't remember the exact stat but it's a lot yeah yeah yeah exactly yeah uh so and then this is kind of the the other side of the coin right because like inflation only really counts when it's moving through multiple hands and as you saw during the pandemic this is this is money velocity it just crossed right at the bottom right because money wasn't moving you know people that were doing well were just throwing into the stock market uh you know the average kind of checking balance for the american household has never been higher people eliminate a lot of credit card debt a lot of the like you know good things in that sense happened but the amount of transactions money has kind of come to a halt and it hasn't really improved actually that's the surprising part to me yeah you know what's interesting is also this has been trending down for some time um but what's crazy is so the shaded part is recessions yeah right so figures that we would live through the quickest recession with the biggest drop ever right like look how tiny this little guy that barely registers and it's this entire drop yeah look at these giant gray lines where they you know it took like three years and the drop is like 10 i i would argue that yeah this recession was largely different in what motivated it though this is the first one of those that's been caused by like worldwide pandemic and that was like i thought cloven 19 i thought that that meant there was 18 other uh covets no that's the year it was first isolated but you know there's actually a lot of people that think that by the way yeah this is this is an interesting take i actually hadn't considered so stars cov2 was the name of the virus okay by the way uh two you know there was only one before um but uh have you ever heard of tips these treasury protected bonds that you can buy from the federal government vinnie i still can't really explain to you fully what a bond is uh so no i have i have not heard of tips yeah well this is if you wanted to park some cash and earn about seven percent right now you could do it with this there's a limit of ten thousand dollars per individual per calendar year but this article's basically saying that you could buy you know for a couple you could buy twenty thousand dollars this year and then twenty thousand dollars in january first and you know still be acceptable as far as the rules go but why make seven percent when i can lose 10 i mean the kind of math like that is why people subscribe to our channel i think that's exactly what i'm just being real man uh the alternative is you could you could take some you know not michael bury not financial advice i mean look at the the 30-year mortgage right now like did you get under three percent or around three percent for the mortgage for my mortgage yeah no oh i'm at a bad interest rate because it was during the two-week spike where it went up eight points in a two-week fan yeah imagine my bad luck it was had i closed five days earlier it was a full point eight percent difference wow that's insane you might want to refi before uh so this is gonna this is what the timeline is looking like right now we're gonna see what what gets announced tomorrow but a lot of people the kind of i would say the majority of financial experts are calling for qe to be done as of march of 2022 and the first rate hike would come in june of 2022.
okay so that's your kind of window where it would be after that point it's unlikely that you'll be able to get a mortgage in this three percent-ish range anymore i would say yeah it was really frustrating it was literally five days before but the problem is the market i'm in you can't wait otherwise you just lose the house i was looking for a house for like two months and they were all crap until i found this one yeah yeah it's tough for sure uh so this is that not financial advice from bird we actually dug this up this is from a while ago but uh you know definitely an interesting interesting take on battling inflation by taking this uh yeah not advice exactly not advice uh but you know taking that i mean that's pretty solid so you could essentially because money's so cheap you could just take out a loan on your mortgage and put it into dividend stocks is essentially what this is saying yeah to a degree i i wouldn't put it so one-sided i would say that if you were prioritizing where to allocate your capital i would say allocate less towards the down payment and more towards investing if you think about it from that standpoint rather borrow more and use my investments to earn more than three percent i i would agree yeah yeah oh yeah this is uh interesting so it was someone had reached out to berry i found this incidentally when i was looking for something and uh asked about some books to recommend and two of the books he recommended here both lyrics poker and when genius failed are actually in another video that dylan and i filmed that will be coming out this week so stay tuned yeah it's pretty cool it's uh they were all pretty genius and man did they fail yeah yeah i think it's a good way to kind of look at the psychology of wall street so bill ackman here right this multi-billion dollar hedge fund uh aficionado financial afficient i guess if you will talked about how although that 6.8 number seems like rather high it's actually missing a lot of inflation you know yeah so you know this kind of gives you a back story talking about how roughly 30 of the cpi is used to estimate like your home expenses you know that's that's part of the basket there of good cpi tracks as far as cost now when you look at the actual increase in terms of uh rental over over the year you're looking at actually he said his group estimates 17 year-over-year increasing causes in terms of rental home prices rent prices are in they're pretty ridiculous right now oh yeah yeah for sure pretty well i mean we can talk more about that we actually probably do a separate video about the supply demand like imbalance in terms of housing in the united states that'd be an interesting video obviously it's very regional but overall there's some interesting data um but if you factor in this this true you know according to him number as far as rental increase that cpi would actually be ten percent yeah i know ten point one percent rather six point eight how do you like that so is this why jerome powell went from we're not ready like like well one month for we're not ready just to uh to you know cut off the printed press or start you know buying back uh the bonds or anything like that yeah i would not buy back i guess but slow down the box and then one month you'd be like ah yeah and then like three weeks later we need to stop immediately yes and they're like like it's six months one month yeah we need to stop yeah exactly i mean you know it's it's tough i i guess especially right now like i feel we're in an interesting position where we have this kind of variable that omicron variant and you know i've been following some of the stuff out of like the uk and sweden and israel and from uh you know it's not the point of this video but it definitely has the potential to dramatically impact uh kind of inflation picture on a system-wide basis if i'll leave it something vague like that if you get what i'm trying to say um do i think that's gonna happen probably not but it's it's enough of a wild card that it's hard to accurately predict well we'll that that should be a whole separate video because we could talk about like kind of what overcrowd was supposed to be and then it's not as bad as we were thinking but it could have other economic issues yeah yeah exactly there's uh i can't remember the name of the youtube channel but there's a doctor from the uk that's been tracking it and does a really good job breaking down in his videos at least in my opinion he's worth putting on and like you know sitting in your car while you're driving all right dudes well let us know how inflation's uh hit you it screwed me over for my house for the mortgage rate no that was really inflation that's just bad timing but yeah well i mean it'll be interesting tomorrow we'll see we'll see what comes out of jerome powell and what he says at the end of the fed meeting that's that's the big one yep all right guys catch the next one yep
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