저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 파월의 긴축 발언은 시장이 이미 반영했고, 연준이 정책 전환에 유연하므로 성장주 반등과 연착륙 기대가 유효하다. 연준 발언 평가: 2022년 금리인상 3회 예고가 인플레이션 억제 의지로 해석되며 다우 +382포인트, 나스닥 +2.15% 급등을 이끌었다. 일부는 매파, 일부는 비둘기파로 해석했다. 향후 정책 전망: 현 계획은 2024년경 인상 중단이며, 데이터에 따라 바뀔 수 있고 연방기금금리가 2% 이상으로 갈 수도 있다고 언급. 시장 반응 및 성장주: 일라이 릴리(약 10% 급등)처럼 수익성 있는 성장주가 반등하고, 금리 민감 성장주 매도 압력은 이미 선반영됐다고 봄. 은행주는 금리 상승 수혜 기대가 꺾여 하락. 전략: 로빈후드, AMC, 게임스탑 등 PER 높은 투기성 종목에서 벗어나 수익성 성장주로 옮기라고 조언. 클라우드 소프트웨어(AMD, 세일즈포스, 애플, 아마존 언급)는 매도 대상으로 거론되었으나 수익성 기준 선별 필요. 리스크: 인플레이션이 계속 뜨겁다면 연준이 긴축을 더 이어갈 수 있으며, 팬데믹 장기화도 변수. 출연자 전망: 산타 랠리가 시작됐을 수 있으며 연내 상승 가능성이 크다고 봄. 파월 체제에서는 연착륙이 예상되나 과거만큼 좋은 종목은 많지 않다고 평가.
다듬은 글
people make friends teach so call me at 1-800-743 cbc tweet me at jim cramer well at least that's over with i'm talking about the fact that fed chief jpel spoke today agreed to raise interest rates three times next year like we thought made it clear the economy is very much on track like we thought but inflation needs to be curbed before it destroys our collective purchasing power like we thought we ended up rallying hard after pal's comments in large part because the big bad event is finally over the dow gaining 382 points has to be jumping 1.6 and the nasdaq which have been getting down there someone giving it the business every day well the nasdaq exploded 2.15 higher house of pleasure the whole thing was like a bit of a rorschach test wasn't it some commentators thought the palace suddenly become very hawkish by introducing the possibility of three rated hikes next year others found him too dovish not doing enough to tamp down on wage inflation or e-supply bottlenecks they wanted the kind of economic carnage that powell unleashed by accident in late 2018 something i doubt he'd do again however if inflation stays red hot it's clear that he might be willing to keep tightening even as the current plan is to stop by around 2024 uh he's but he's flexible uh that plan will change if the data changes and the fed funds rate could end up going above two percent the fed will do what's prudent especially if the pandemic stays with us in short powell once again threaded the needle that's why the stock market could turn around and sewer led by profitable growth stocks like my favorites like eli lilly which i tried so hard to get you to buy in our club meeting last week rallied ten percent single session after the reason pummeling these profitable growth stocks which are the ones you know i favor well the selling in them the respite well earned more importantly because pal had already signaled that something like this was coming the stock market had already baked in the damage and applied it to every every sector which is what else allowed us to rebound today when it became clear that his bark is more powerful than his bite ever since powell went nuclear in the economy in late 2018 and then swiftly had to change course he's been a very measured and thoughtful fed chief for example he said repeatedly that he doesn't want to slam the brakes on the economy start raising rates until we see more gains in minority hiring he's always looking to help the disadvantage man that's a new thing for a fed chief but today pal said we're finally making headway and while he's a pretty subdued guy he was obviously happy to have held rates low enough to accomplish that mission in his life in my adult life i don't think i've ever seen a fed chief who prioritizes main street over wall street like this man plus pal's no not a bonehead he doesn't say anything about the pandemic except to point out that more people were vaccinated the better the economy would be that's a fact although it's one millions are in denial about he's not a clueless taskmaster either powell doesn't make stupid predictions about how rich he's going to be no vows to hit us with lockstep like he did three years ago saying that we got a great rate high great height rate hike he sends them to the power of his own words now even as the questioners either want him to blunder or want to test his conviction he's not an ostrich powell recognizes that we've got all sorts of inflation although he also knows the combined inflation has already been tamped down by his recent pivot lots of major commodities have already come down substantially from the highest think oil copper steel just based on recent remarks his words were his deeds now just like the reporters who try to trip jay up there are traders who got tripped up by his common sense approach give you a couple examples first the bank stocks turned down today because going into today some traders believe that the fed would screw it up tighten rapidly remember the banks make more money when short-term rates go higher i guess they thought palace bozo the clown he outwitted these people when he brushed his teeth and buttoned his shirt this morning there were others who kept selling the best gross stocks right into the release of pal statement i want you to think of companies like amd salesforce apple amazingly proper because they expected total carnage in these names again it's like they never paid attention to a single word this man has said so what happens now there are a couple of ways to go first we could be looking at the beginning of the long-awaited santa claus rally that i keep talking about you can't rule it out given there's nothing on the calendar that could derail the market between now and the end of the year i mean historically this is it historically the santa rally doesn't usually come into a few days later but it wouldn't shock me if it already started you know larry williams the legendary stockton market historian and i are banking on this one so instead of this all aboard second some investors might not realize that we aren't going back to where we were before pals pivot don't go back to some of those stocks while jay's not explicitly trying to annihilate the cloud-based software as the database stops with huge adjustable markets powered by land expanded strategies in other words the money loses the trade on sales not earnings his pivot was the sign to lighten up on the whole group okay the whole group powell did not say you should dump your robin hood he did not say you should dump your amc he did not say you should sell your game stop he did not do those things but they simply don't work in an environment where the fed is no longer your friend those stocks that sell at 10 20 30 40 time sales forget them they've made their money for you go for profitable growth okay profitable growth third pal will immediately be second guessed by supposed experts who shouldn't even be allowed to shine the guy's shoes unless they get kiwi polish on his cuffs these professionals second guessers including professors hedge fund managers who are short the stock market and highly paid economists often looking to preserve their jobs at all costs will they want the fed to carpet bond the economy in order to stamp out inflation as soon as possible you cannot afford to listen to these people you will never make money you will be in your financial chains if like my charitable trust they actually showed you in real time what they were doing in their money i'm betting that they're doing somewhat of the opposite of what they say on air because otherwise maybe they'd be out of business a long time ago fourth there will be a pack of jackals eager to start speculating right now tomorrow morning about how the next fed meeting is right around the corner and when it arrives powell will have to tighten a lot tougher because inflation's still raging these people i say they are zero help i think there's actually something pathological about them too i mean they can't stop talking about the next meeting it's like they have nothing else in their lives these people must find other hobbies what matters in the end is that pal is taking action to slow the economy now that he's gotten the unemployment rate back to 4.2 percent i say the guy deserves a victory lap so let me tell you if i were one of those squares i don't know if you watched you probably didn't watch it but there's like these big hollywood square games all these faces if i would have been one those are the press people if i had been one of those if i were in the audience today's press conference and he called on me to ask a question me me me me me here's my take i would say chairman papp i want to thank you for being a person of your work a fed chief who cares more about the persistent downtrodden rather than persistent inflation you correctly navigated the pandemic and are committed to continuing to do so so thank you for not falling prey to historics about the various streams you saved millions of jobs with your considered words during the downturn you did not freak out because of strong hiring or strong spending as it didn't require credit and most important you're the only non-political guy left in washington trying to help the people who've been left behind rather than worrying about keeping your own job so mr chairman here's my question chief what's your favorite drink let me send you a case you and your family have a safe great holiday thank you very much see you next year here's the bottom line the market is entering a new phase here but as long as pal's in charge i think we can expect a soft landing and a lot of good socks to find just not as many as before i think it's diet gingerreal
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