Mohamed El-Erian: The Fed should recognize it was caught 'massively offsides'

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결론: 채권시장은 연준 긴축 속도를 대체로 맞게 반영했지만 주식시장은 유동성에 기대 낙관하고 있으며, 연준은 인플레이션 판단을 크게 잘못 내려 뒤처질 가능성이 크다. 연준 금리 전망: 시장은 2022년 5월 첫 인상, 9월 2차, 12월 3차를 반영해 연말 기준금리가 약 0.88% 수준까지 오를 것으로 본다. JP모건은 2023년 말까지 175bp 인상과 2024년 중립금리 2.5% 복귀를 예상하며, 이는 시장보다 더 가파른 긴축이다. 실질금리와 인플레이션: 실질 연방기금금리는 -6.8%로 볼커 시절보다 낮은 역대 최저 수준이라 연준의 긴축 여지가 많다. 최근 인플레이션 지표는 계속 강하다. 엘-에리언 진단: 연준은 수요 부족이 문제라는 잘못된 틀로 대응했지만 실제 문제는 공급 측면이다. 연준은 인플레이션 판단 실패를 인정하고 테이퍼링을 빠르게 하며 금리 인상 가능성을 더 열어둬야 한다고 주장했다. 연준 대응 전망: 그는 연준이 이 같은 조치를 취하지 않고 테이퍼링을 두 배로 늘리는 정도에 그쳐 뒤처질 것으로 본다. 오미크론 불확실성을 핑계로 대응이 늦어진다는 입장이다. 파월 의장 발언: 파월은 11월 말 인플레이션이 더 이상 일시적이지 않다고 인정했고, 테이퍼링을 11월 150억달러에서 300억달러로 확대했으며, 금리 인상을 더 일찍 고려해야 할 수도 있다고 밝혔다. 진행자는 연준이 잘못 판단했다는 점을 재확인했다. 유동성 시각: 주식시장은 연준 대차대조표가 약 4조달러에서 9조달러로 늘어난 이후 유동성 장세를 누리고 있다. 엘-에리언은 향후 몇 달간 1500~2000억달러의 추가 유동성 주입이 있을 것으로 보고 주식시장이 이를 믿고 있다고 해석한다. 진행자는 연준 대차대조표가 당분간 9조달러 수준을 유지하므로 연준이 긴축으로 주식시장을 위협하기 전까지 주식에 우호적인 환경이 조성된다고 봤다. 리스크: 연준이 인플레이션을 잡기 위해 경제를 억누를 필요가 있다고 판단하면 주식시장이 급락할 수 있다. 채권은 긴축을 대체로 반영한 반면 주식은 이를 과소평가하고 있다는 불균형이 핵심 리스크다. 출연자 전망: 엘-에리언은 연준이 늦게 움직이고 인플레이션이 더 끈질길 것이라고 본다. 진행자는 연준의 긴축 속도 판단과 유동성 장세의 지속 가능성을 의문시했다.

다듬은 글

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01. another strong inflation report friday with promises of more to come it does raise the question whether the fed may have to do much more to get control of rising prices not just taper faster or even raise rates earlier markets already have that priced end but actually move to slow the economy here's a preview of tomorrow's fed survey we asked if the fed eventually could have to raise rates above neutral and slow the economy 45 percent of respondents say yes 55 48 say no so it's an issue that's out there rapid changes in the fed's own policy outlook mean that most forecasters only now catching up to where the market's priced they have brought forward their estimate of the first rate hike into the spring or early summer but is that enough given the current inflation outlook jpmorgan's mike ferolly writing over the weekend while market pricing incorporates an early fed start it's not anticipating the cumulative adjustment that lies ahead we forecast policy rates to rise 175 basis points by the end of 2023 and see fed forecast projecting a return to a neutral stance two and a half percent in 2024.

02. fed futures markets priced in a may rate hike just about a second hike in september and a third one coming in december that would put the funds rate just about 88 basis points at the end of next year investors they're going to watch the fed's own new projections they're going to come out on wednesday to see how aggressively the fed itself forecasts the path for the funds rate the real fed funds rate take out inflation minus 6.8 percent that's the lowest on record lower than it was under volcker the fed has a lot of work due to get to neutral question is whether markets have priced in that level of tightening andrew steve uh stay exactly where you are because i want you to be part of this conversation joining us right now is alliance and gramercy adviser muhammad allerian it's also of course the president of queens college cambridge good morning to you uh why don't you try to answer the question if you could that steve just raised which is effectively do investors have it right or not at the moment so i think the fixed income part of the investment universe has it pretty right has it right not only in terms of pricing the rate increases but also recognizing that there's a limit to how far the fed could go this economy cannot support higher rates quickly the equity market is playing the liquidity paradigm and they are right to do so even under steve's scenario and under the market scenario we have another 150 to 200 billion of liquidity injections ahead of us in the next few months so i think there is this massive difference between the two markets and it makes total sense mohammed i don't know if you heard steve and i were talking a little bit earlier about kevin warsh's piece in the wall street journal this morning and we don't need to relitigate whether it's it's all the fed's fault uh which is in large part part of the thesis but if you try to look forward in terms of how you think the fed is going to think about this not just how they will think about it but how they should think about it in terms of dealing with the stability uh of the the financial system and the monetary system how do you think uh they they should do it so the way they should do it is recognize that they've been caught massively offsides that they are late that their inflation weed was awful and they have a credibility issue and the reason why they got massive caught massively offside is they were functioning as if the problem is deficient aggregate demand and it turns out that the problem is not on the demand side is on the supply side so they are caught with the wrong paradigm so that's reality if i were them i would do three things which they will not do i would one be very open and honest as to why i got the inflation call wrong and try to regain the inflation narrative two i would go even further than doubling the rate of paper and three i would open it up to the possibility that rate hikes may come faster than what the market has they're not going to do that what they're going to do is double the rate of of tape and not go beyond that they're going to tell us that inflation is more persistent and higher we know that and then they're going to wrap all that up in the uncertainty packaging because of omicron so they're going to be they're going to stay behind and fall further behind in fact hey steve is jay powell saying to himself i got it wrong or is there somebody else on the board who's saying hey jay we didn't get this right um jay powell basically said publicly he got it wrong i mean what do you make of that speech he made at the end of november where he said uh it's not transitory anymore uh we're gonna we're gonna taper early remember the fed made a decision beginning in november to do 15.

03. he came back the end of november said we're doing 30. i'm not sure what else fed chair powell has to do to say that he got that wrong or the fed got it wrong um and why did he say that well he said among other things we maybe need to get around to thinking about hiking rates sooner so yeah they they got that wrong and they also got wrong the uh extent to which i think supply constraints were an issue that it was a as muhammad said a supply side issue rather than a demand side issue they were treating one problem and it was another i want to get back to something muhammad said which is really interesting which is playing the liquidity game for stock investors uh and muhammad can correct me if i put words in his mouth the wrong way but there's two aspects to this the first one is that the fed is going to continue to buy for quite a while that's one thing that's what they call the flow argument there's another argument called the stock argument which is that the fed's balance sheet has cranked up over the time that we've been hanging out here and talking about this from four to nine trillion dollars over the course of the next year at least the fed's balance sheet is going to remain nine trillion we ask a question i'll bring in the answers tomorrow about whether the fed eventually is going to get to balance sheet reduction but that's down the road so for at least some foreseeable future here we have inflows into the stock of how much the fed has and we have a huge stock of nine trillion dollars all of that i think sets up a pretty decent environment for stocks until or if they get spooked by the idea that the fed may have to clamp down on the economy in order to get get control of inflation