저자: StephenSpicer,CFP · 외국인
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결론: 그랜섬은 미국 증시가 초거품 상태이며 전쟁으로 불확실성이 커져 장기적으로 저조한 수익이 예상된다고 보고, 투자자는 보수적으로 대응해야 한다고 주장한다. 그랜섬의 거품 이론: 1989년 일본, 2000년 닷컴, 2007년 미국 주택 거품을 모두 예견했으며, 2009년 3월 바닥도 맞혔다. 올해 1월 발표한 리서치에서 미국은 과거 100년간 네 번째 '초거품' 국면이라고 진단했고, 체크리스트 항목이 이미 모두 충족됐다고 말했다. 전쟁의 영향: 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁은 결과의 분포를 크게 넓혀 불확실성을 증폭시켰다. 그랜섬은 올해 초 예측 경로가 한 달 전보다 덜 확실해졌다고 언급했다. 정책 전망: 각국 정부가 추가 양적완화(QE5)와 부양으로 단기 주가 급등을 유도할 가능성이 있으나, 이는 인플레이션을 악화시키고 이후 더 큰 폭락으로 이어질 수 있다고 경고했다. 밸류에이션과 투자자 행동: 미국 주식은 고평가 상태이며 장기 수익률은 저조할 것으로 전망했다. 투자자들이 2019년보다 비싼 미국 시장에 공격적으로 매수하고 있는 것도 비정상적 현상으로 지적했다. 투자 조언: 첫째, 미국 주식을 피하고 일본·영국 등 적정가치에 가까운 해외 시장을 고려한다. 둘째, 현금 등 유동성 비중을 늘린다. 셋째, 인플레이션에 강한 원자재(금·은 등)를 고려한다. 채권도 인플레와 금리 상승 위험으로 매력이 낮다고 봤다. 진행자 견해: 그랜섬의 조언에 동의하며 자신도 원자재 투자로 수익을 냈고, 인플레이션 문제의 심각성을 강조했다. 방향성 있는 개별 종목 추천은 없었다.
다듬은 글
jeremy grantham famously predicted the 1989 bubble in japan where it ultimately fell by more than 80 percent over the following two decades and even today more than three decades later is still below that 1989 high yeah he saw that coming he did the same before the dot-com crash of the year 2000 and the u.s housing bubble in 2007.
he also publicly called the march 2009 bottom of the now called global financial crisis or gfc you know when jim cramer was panicking and telling everyone to sell yeah grantham has a pretty solid track record of evaluating global macroeconomic conditions with a level head and back in january he published some very compelling research which i'll link out to for you in the description that predicted a troubled future for the financial markets and a precarious situation for individual investors he summarized all equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend but before they did a handful went on to become super bubbles in the u.s in 1929 and 2000 and in japan in 1989 there were also super bubbles in housing in the u.s in 2006 and japan in 1989 all five of these super bubbles corrected all the way back to trend with much greater and longer pain than average today in the us we are in the fourth super bubble of the last hundred years previous equity super bubbles had a series of distinct features that individually are rare and collectively are unique to these events in each case these shared characteristics have already occurred in this cycle the checklist for super bubble running through its faces is now complete and the wild rumpus can begin at any time but you should know that warning came before the war in ukraine what grantham is predicting now and what you can do about it coming up welcome back you wonderful 17 000 subscribers i'm so glad you're here trying to figure all this stuff out with me i sincerely hope i can help let's get to it in that previous report grantham said we were in the vampire phase of this bull market he said you throw everything you have at it you stab it with covet shoot it with the end of qe at the promise of higher rates and you poison it with unexpected inflation until just as you're beginning to think the thing is completely immortal it finally keels over and dies that's how he described what was happening at the beginning of this year the market's bubble was reluctantly starting to deflate before it would ultimately just capitulate and come crashing down it was in those final throws of impending death but then came a massive variable out of left field russia's war with ukraine and in a recent interview with think advisor grantham warned that when a war starts everything is scrambled and it multiplies all the uncertainties the outcomes stretch all the way from at the good end regime change in russia and everyone lives happily ever after to nuclear war at the other end and everything in between this is serious stuff that's going on the risk profile for everybody has gone up because you can't rule out the russians being a bit crazy and irrational putin is a borderline psychotic and war is a complicated event full of unintended consequences when asked about the theory he posited earlier this year he said that it seemed so obvious at the time so oddly similar to what happened just before the crash in 2000 but there's never been a war thrown in the middle of a major bubble like this i was pretty darn certain that we were in the late stages of a bubble breaking now i have to put an asterisk against that and say if i had to guess it will end up at the same place though but i've learned the hard way that when you throw new things at the economy and stock market unpredictable things happen so there's an irreducible increase in uncertainty i talk about this in my book as well this is one of the problems with the stock and bond only buy and hold investment philosophy it assumes that the past adequately accounts for every possible combination of variables in the future which of course is ludicrous it doesn't it can't we've never been here before we've never experienced this unique combination of inputs that will ultimately determine where our financial markets will be in the long run grantham warrants as i have as well in my book you have to be prepared for anything the market is in a bad place and the war bodes very badly for global growth and global trade it bodes badly for price rises that's all fundamentally pretty grievous we've learned the hard way that fundamentals are one thing and the stock market and paper are another specifically he talks about not knowing what governments around the world will do that's a big variable that we've talked about here on this channel there will likely end up being a lot of political pressure to stimulate the economy further qe5 if you will another wave of stemis and although it seems obvious to me at least that that behavior in the past really since 2008 but it's just gotten worse and worse since then as as new never before even imagined precedents keep being said that that behavior of stimulus of quantitative easing has been the number one contributor to our massive inflation problem today but you can see the spin of the official political narrative trying to grasp onto whatever other scapegoat it possibly can like the convenient scapegoat that is vladimir putin for example that could conceivably pave the way for yet another round of stimulus which would absolutely cause a short-term surge in the stock market along with even worse inflation and an even worse crash whenever it finally does come to bear here's grantham's take on the long-term prospects of the u.s stock market should things play out in this ill-advised way but how do you know they're not going to do it in the end you can't get blood from a stone if you have overpriced stocks you get a dismal return and we have overpriced stocks and we will get a dismal return although he clearly sees the same significant drawdown on the horizon as he did when he first wrote the super bubble theory at the beginning of the year he says the flight path is not as certain as it was a month ago now one of the signs he outlines in that paper of a super bubble is investors making crazy investment decisions it's an easy phenomenon to identify at the peak of any bubble in hindsight of course it's more difficult to recognize in the moment when asked if the war has increased investors crazy behavior grantham explains the u.s market is the main event in the bubble business the u.s market today sells at a higher price than in 2019 covid and the war have increased the long-term value of the u.s stock market apparently it wouldn't seem rational that that would be the case but the real world gdp is bleak and totally divorced from the paper world of stock prices and the wars just brought more of the same individuals today are investing at a more rapid rate into the market decline than they were into the market rise which is unheard of there's a lot of abnormal support for the vampire a blood transfusion if you will all of it coming indirectly from the stimulus if you're an investor trying to figure this all out trying to figure out the most savvy thing to do with your money when presented with such a precarious and unprecedented state of affairs if you look at the mainstream financial advice including many of the most popular financial youtubers most of them just fall back on that tired old regurgitation of buy and hold or stay the course but maybe you're here because when you hear that mantra you still feel like something is missing like real critical thought perhaps you feel as though there must be some better way and you should be concerned you're right to be here trying to get this all figured out and this isn't fear mongering this is reality when asked about what advice financial advisors should be giving their clients grantham says the honest advice would be uncertainty levels have risen and therefore you want to be a little more conservative don't you every time uncertainty goes up you want to have a little more in cash in the bank and a little more reserve that's a truthful no-brainer secondly you want to point out that you don't know what the government will do and that yes there's some possibility of enough stimulus to cause a substantial move upwards in the market but that the underlying fundamentals have deteriorated on quite a few levels interest rates inflation stagflation supply lines shortages it's just a thoroughly unpleasant set of incremental risks i don't think that means you should be all in cash or something like that in fact given the state of inflation that would actually be one of the worst stores of value for your long-term assets there are opportunities out there and i want to help you find and more importantly know how to find them but first i want to make sure you're aware of the dangers you have to be careful when pressed for specific investment recommendations grantham offers what i say is the us is crazy and abnormally overpriced so step one avoid the us if you want to buy equities go overseas step two find the cheaper ones there are some countries that are pretty close to fair value japan the uk and a few others step three build up a little extra liquidity cash or cash substitute i personally have a little gold and silver and i would recommend that investors seriously consider resources resources do very well with inflation and we are seriously short of practically every resource looking out over a decade or longer i mentioned that in this video i created earlier this year about profiting from inflation and yeah the commodity investments i've had since that time have done extremely well he also reiterates another point that i've made repeatedly regarding the decision to invest in bonds again many financial gurus and otherwise perceived experts will just blindly recommend bonds as an unquestionable part of every investment allocation he says i'm entirely sympathetic to someone who's running a pension fund because it's not just that u.s stocks are horribly overpriced u.s bonds pretty well have a risk guarantee of an ugly future you start with bonds that face a future of inflation and higher rates and a very unpleasant economic future not just for the us but globally what are you supposed to do as a pension fund officer you're supposed to wake up in the middle of the night screaming i think there's no easy answer ouch luckily as an individual investor you have much more flexibility than the pension fund manager grantham concludes his investment advice by just reminding you to be very very careful i couldn't agree more it starts with understanding how bad our financial situation really is i made this video right here to help you understand how bad our inflation problem is for example and this one to help provide you with some of the context grantham is using to draw such grim conclusions about the state of the us economy i can't wait to see you in the comments here and there i love getting to know you all better i wish you all the best take care
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