저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
엘-에리언은 연준이 7월 금리인하를 하지 않아 노동시장 약화를 간과했다고 비판하며, 9월에 인하할 것으로 보고 이후 인하폭(25 또는 50bp)을 논의할 것이라 봤다. 과거 연준이 늦게 대응해 50bp 인하를 한 전례를 들며, 이번엔 경기 리스크가 더 크고 저소득층 금융안정이 약화됐다고 지적했다. 연준이 대중의 과도한 기대(구원자 역할)에서 벗어나 재정·구조개혁(AI, 생명과학, 로봇 등 혁신 확산)에 초점을 옮겨야 한다고 주장했다. 정치적 압박도 연준 혼란 요인으로 언급했다.
다듬은 글
All right, time for another big interview here on Power Lunch. Pleased to be joined by Alon's chief economic adviser, Muhammad El Arent. Muhammad, good to see you again. Listen, you have been Well, thank you. You have been fairly critical of the Fed. You've also been critical but fair. And as the job market has been slowing for over a year, some, like the, you know, the guy in the White House are wondering why the Federal Reserve has not already begun to act on interest rates.
Outside of those rather, some would say bizarre cuts last fall. We asked my ex audience, Twitter, what it thinks. I asked, "By not cutting rates this year, the Fed is a doing it right or b getting it wrong." Muhammad 67% said the Fed is getting it wrong by not cutting rates sooner or more aggressively.
Would you agree with that take? I agree with the twothirds who said that they have been getting it wrong. You know, there was a bunch of us outside and inside the Fed that were arguing for a July cut and our concern which is playing out in the data is that chairp had taken too narrow a view of the jobs market and by that he was ignoring the weakness that was starting to come to the surface and the problem as you know Brian is if you don't address weakness in the labor market it becomes nonlinear it accelerates and it becomes much more damaging.
So yes, I think they have gotten it wrong. I think once again they're late. Um they will cut in September and I suspect there will also be a discussion should they cut by 25 or 50. And where you end up on this depends on whether you think the labor market has a demand or supply problem and what you think the inflation dynamics really are.
Can they make let's assume that you are correct as you probably are. I would by the way agree with you. Can the Federal Reserve make up for a policy mistake of not cutting rates already by overcompensating on September 17th by cutting by a half a percent, not a quarter percent. Would that sort of make up for any sins of the past?
We've seen this movie before. or we saw it a year ago where they refused to cut in July and they did a jumbo cut 50 basis points in September. Um I think this time around the risks to the economy are higher than they were a year ago because we've eroded as you just discussed earlier we've eroded the financial security of lower income households.
So could they catch up? Yes, they could. Hopefully they will. But it's a more risky operation than a lot of people um expect it to be. Yeah. They made the cut last year and then of course this year it's become overly politicized because the president's gotten involved, had the public spat, you know, now now they're trying to remove a Fed governor.
It's just gotten so so muddled. But let me ask a different question, Muhammad. Do we over rely on the Fed? It's like I feel like now we always view Fed as like Superman. like, well, when things get troubled, don't worry, the Federal Reserve is going to save us. I'm not sure with AI and everything else, the Fed matters to that level.
But what say you? You're absolutely right. It doesn't. You know, I've often argued get off center stage and put the focus on other elements of government that can enable this economy to continue to grow. No, they've been sent the stage basically since 2008. In the beginning they had good reason to be center stage because the government was less functional at the time you know we shut down the government there there was issues but more recently and I think secretary writes about it in the Wall Street Journal today um it's because they've had massive mission creep so they've staged center a stage when they really should have been slowly going off and allowing not just the fiscal the focus on the fiscal authorities but more importantly the focus on structural reform homes.
That is the key to sustaining growth and productivity. What does that mean? What is what structural reform would you do? I would focus on better diffusion, faster diffusion, more even diffusion of these incredible innovations that are going to significantly increase productivity and that are not understood enough and that we risk not having the sort of diffusion that would be consistent with the productivity potential. I'm talking of AI, life sciences, robotics.
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