저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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Faber는 자산가격 인플레이션 이후 대부분 자산(금·은·주식·채권)이 하락할 것이라 보며, 트럼프 관련 기업은 0으로 갈 수 있다고 주장. 석유는 금·은 대비 싸고 중국·인도 수요로 구조적 상승 가능성을 제시. 대체에너지의 한계를 지적하며 이란 전쟁은 장기화될 것이라는 견해.
다듬은 글
I was talking yesterday to someone who is has also been in the business for years and we kind of agreed there's really no possibility of a favorable outcome. I'm sad sorry to say in each instance they're going to have to print money just to pay the the interest on the existing debts and so forth and in my view this will lead to inflation.
Okay. But you understand since the beginning of the year the long bond in America there's a TLT ETF everybody looks at the TLT ETF to determine the strengths and the weakness of the bond market. The TLT is down 1.6% the NASDAQ is down like 9% and many stocks are down 20% in the first three months of the year.
So my view is I rather have bonds I lose some money but this is my view. Yeah. After 40 years of asset price inflation I call this asset price inflation. I think that asset prices will go down for everything including gold and silver and stocks and bonds and everything down collectibles but some things will go to zero all Trump related companies will go to zero many companies where he's involved in based on the past experience they all be will be zeros.
Wow. But anyway that let's talk about the ones that will go down less. I think gold and silver and precious metals and and platinum they also go down but if the Trump companies all go to zero and you and I own gold and it goes down 20% then relatively speaking we're doing well. People often say oil is expensive but much depends on the unit of measurement.
When measured in fiat currency, energy prices appear dramatically higher than they were decades ago. But when measured against gold or silver, the picture looks very different. Oil prices were relatively low in the early 1970s before the OPEC shocks changed global energy markets. Since then, oil has risen significantly in dollar terms, but over the long run, gold and silver have appreciated even more.
The broader argument is that precious metals may reflect the declining purchasing power of fiat currencies more accurately than commodity prices alone. In that context, oil may not have become dramatically more expensive. Rather, currencies may have lost value over time. I I think actually oil has and has just embarked on another upward leg in prices and we could be going up for I mean, I wouldn't be surprised to see the current oil price being the next normal that we're around here and then we fluctuate up and down depending on demand and supply in the world and so forth.
But if I look at the per capita consumption of oil I look at it at the US and I look at it at China 20 years ago and at China today and at India now and India's 1.3 billion people. Mr. Trump, he doesn't know that. But I maybe he'll watch his your show and then he can learn something, you know, I'm happy to teach him something about the world, how the world looks like in terms of geography and in terms of population.
But anyway, you know, the structural demand for energy will go up and it is true that some alternate forms of energy are gaining market share. But I'm sorry to say to make a blade of a windmill, you also need energy and to transport the blood in wing of a windmill, you need a truck that is a huge thing, you know.
I mean, people have a kind of the impression that you can get rid of oil and diesel and gasoline. This is simply not the case. It won't happen. [clears throat] And then people talk up I have a energy saving car, an electric vehicle. Okay. The electricity also has to be generated from somewhere. Faber also connects the inflation story to energy.
He argues that oil may not be as expensive as it appears when measured against gold and believes the world could be entering another major upward phase in energy prices. His view is based less on short-term supply disruptions and more on long-term structural demand from countries like China and India where per capita energy consumption still has significant room to grow.
He also challenges the idea that alternative energy can rapidly replace fossil fuels. Electric vehicles, wind turbines, transportation systems, and industrial production all still depend heavily on large energy and resource inputs. In this view, the global economy remains deeply tied to oil, diesel, and traditional energy infrastructure.
As energy costs rise, the effects can spread throughout the economy, fueling inflation, pressuring consumers and governments, and making the next phase of the global economic cycle more difficult to manage. I'm sorry to say I don't think this conflict will be over in like 3 weeks. I think it can last forever because the Israelis want the solution and their solution is actually to get rid of any Iran that could be hostile to them.
You understand? That means the complete destruction of the country or the domination of the country. I mean, Netanyahu is not exactly my model desirable leader. I think he's a he's sort of a mad Zionist who has a very very evil ideas about the world and about human rights and so forth. But of course, my Jewish friends disagree with me and I understand to some extent their views.
But a preventive war is like as Bismarck said, at the German Chancellor at the end of the 19th century, he said a preventive war is like committing suicide because you're afraid to die. You understand? So I think this war is a complete disaster. And about the last that I want to make sure everybody understand.
The last thing anyone would want is an Iran that is dominated and ruled by the duo Netanyahu-Trump. Do you think the Russians would like it? Do you think the Chinese would like it? Do you think the Arabs would like it? Nobody would like it. That is a clear and that's why I don't think there will be a a peace anytime soon.
How is Trump going to tell the Israelis stop bombing Iran? Yeah. Well, but I tell you for sure. But I tell you for sure. Do like, share, comment, and subscribe to this channel. Also, don't forget to hit the bell icon for more updates.
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