Richest People React To China’s Economic Crisis (Charlie Munger, George Soros, Elon Musk & MORE!)

요약 보기

중국 경제 위기 및 부동산 시장 침체를 다룬 영상으로, 대부분 2022년 8월 시점의 과거 발언 모음이다. 결론: 중국 부동산 버블의 지속 불가능성과 정부 정책 전환이 향후 경제에 주요 변수이며, 투자 측면에서는 중국 노출 축소 흐름이 뚜렷하다. 부동산 위기: 2013년 이후 부동산이 성장 동력이었으나 가격이 평균 소득을 넘어서며 신용 기반 모델이 한계에 도달. 2021년 6월 토지가격은 전년 동월 대비 30% 이상 상승. 정부가 대출 억제에 나서며 대형 개발사 Evergrande의 채무 이행이 어려워짐. 분양 리스크: 선분양 구조에서 미완공 아파트 대금 미지급 우려가 커지고, 가격은 하락 전환. 부동산에 자산을 집중한 중산층의 정부 불满이 커질 수 있다고 봄. Chanos 발언: 중국 일부 대형 금융기관 대출 포트폴리오에 의문을 제기해 공매도 중. 미국 내 일부 중국 브로커가 중국인의 미국 주식 매수를 불법적으로 허용한다고 주장. 중국 노출은 1년 전보다 높지만 2011~15, 2016년 정점보다 낮다고 설명. 정부 정책 반복: 부동산 시장 진정 시도가 네 번째이며, 이전 사례마다 경기 둔화 후 정부가 다시 부양으로 전환해 문제를 키웠다고 주장. Munger 발언: 중국 정부에 대한 자본가들의 우려가 커졌다고 언급. 미·중 긴장은 어리석은 상황이며 관계 개선을 원한다고 함. 중국에 직접 투자하는 사모펀드 간접 투자 경험을 언급하고 코카콜라 등 미국 기업 투자도 언급. Musk 발언: 중국 주택 과잉 공급과 투기로 인해 부동산 침체가 임박했다고 봄. 2008년 미국 사태와 유사하다는 취지. 대만 관련 전쟁 등 지정학 리스크가 세계 경기침체를 부를 수 있다고 언급. Rudd 발언: 중국 성장 둔화 원인으로 ① 경제정책의 좌향 이동, ② 제로코로나 봉쇄(상하이 사례 포함), ③ 세계 경제 상황(러시아·우크라이나 전쟁 포함)을 제시. 부동산 부문을 자연스러운 운영으로 되돌리는 것이 정부가 쓸 수 있는 현실적 선택이라고 봄. 2022년 10월 시진핑 재임 이후 정책 방향이 불확실해 장기 신뢰 문제가 있다고 지적. 리스크: 부동산 부실, 지정학 긴장, 정책 불확실성, 민간 신뢰 하락.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. for today's video we will be going to talk about richest people react to china's economic crisis let's get started george soros multi-billionaire since sea giving took office in 2013 the real estate industry has served as china's primary driver of growth as a result the country is currently experiencing an economic crisis the foundation of the real estate boom is an unsustainable model apartment buyers must begin making payments even before the building are completed since the system is credit based the majority of municipal governments income comes from selling land and steadily growing prices prices had to finally beyond what the average person could afford in the middle of 2021 it took place by that point the boom had expanded to unhealthy large extent accounting for close to 30 percent of the economy and consuming an ever-increasing amount of credit after gradually accelerating the property boom came to an end with a bank residential land prices were over 30 percent higher in june 2021 compared to the same month the previous year the top leadership directed ranks not to boost lending for residential property in an effort to slow down the base contrary to what was intended the instruction made it difficult for grande the biggest and most leveraged developer ever to fulfill its obligations people in boat flats started to worry what they might not ever receive the homes they were paying for a subcontractors who weren't paid seized working there were considerably more vendors than buyers when the primary selling season began in september and for a while there were practically any transactions at the listed pricing however prices are now beginning to decline for both real estates and flats many people who put the most of their savings in the real estate will become hostile towards xi being as a result of this jim chanus investment manager we have shorted and continue to short a few of the larger chinese financial institutions that have in our opinion questionable loan books it's not difficult to identify a few of the cross-border megabanks that trade in london and have significant exposure to real estate in hong kong and china which of them are those we are sorting them one of the american casino operators in macau is currently absent additionally there are a few chinese brokers that trade in the united states who in our opinion are illegally allowing chinese citizens to purchase shares of american companies we appreciate a crackdown on these brokers all things considered our exposure to china is undoubtedly higher now that it was a year ago but it is still significantly lower than its peak levels of 2011 15 and 2016.

02. having said all that i do believe that this is a particularly important time to watch what the chinese leadership does to address the situation this will be their fourth attempt to slow down the property market since i started following china there was one in 2011 and one more recently in roughly 2014 to 2015.

03. there was one in 2018 and we are aware of what transpired the fourth is now available in each of those situations the economy quickly stalls and the government steps in we are aware of what transpired after one in 2018. the fourth is here at this time each time the government took its foot off the brakes and press the accelerator once again as the economy swiftly reached stall speed of course doing that has just made matters worse charlie munger american billionaire investor and business the chinese government now worries all capitalists much more than it did previously naturally we don't like that we also wish relations between the united states and china were better and if you pause to consider it consider how incredibly dumb it is that the united states and china allowed current tensions to develop if china and united states are close if we make friends with the chinese and vice versa what horrible thing could possibly ever happen to either of us and because china isn't the same as the united states and has a lot of difficulties i don't think we should be criticizing them they are better at some things than we are both of us should get along with each other in light of the current political unrest how would you rank making an investment in china what if you invested through the ownership of american business operating there naturally i have some investments in american businesses that operate in china such as coca-cola but through the administration of la lu i also have a sizable investment in china whom the monger family significantly supported when he established a small private equity business to invest in china and who has a very successful track record which has cost me to follow the major chinese companies very closely and naturally i had a great deal of success there elon musk world's richest man there is sort of an impending bust in the chinese real estate market because there are simply too many apartments and structures in general there are also far too many main dwelling units in china which is absurd considering that major housing units in china have been overbuilt and that individuals are speculating on them similar to what americans did in the years leading up to 2008.

04. in 2008 the u.s led the world primary housing units were being built in the u.s at a rate that was double that of new household the thing that's difficult to foresee is for example whether a war between china and taiwan or something like that would cause the globe to enter a recession you are aware of this possibility and are aware that it exists at all times kevin rudd format australian prime minister if we take a step back and ask what's driving the huge slowdown and growth three things are at work in this situation one is what i refer to as a leftward shift and the chinese government's emphasis on economic policy over the past few years we can see this from the government's introduction of a number of policy initiatives that to put it mildly have alarmed the chinese private sector the second more urgent reason is what you just mentioned the zero coverage lockdowns and of course the possibility of a partial repetition of that in shanghai right now the third issue over which they have the third issue over which they have little control is the current state of the world economy china continues to rely heavily on net exports to drive much of its overall growth what can they alter about that concoction zero clandestine or the situation of the world economy as long as vladimir putin xi jinping's ali is involved in ukraine but for the first set of measures which are all related to this leftward shift and economic policy i believe the only option really available to the government would be to simply take the foot of the chinese property sector and allow it to resume its natural operations in the absence of significant direct stimulatory measures additionally it is a case of once bitten twice shy therefore it is unclear whether the chinese private sector would simply say well that's terrific we're back to normal now or whether they would say aha what will happen after the 20th party congress when xi jinping is reappointed in october november this year will we then be heading ideologically back towards the left if there is to be a u-turn or a course correction and some of the left-leaning economic policies brought in by xi we have an issue with long-term confidence because of this