저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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2022년 8월 영상 기준 마이클 버리의 공개 포트폴리오와 시장 전망을 분석. 결론: 버리는 시장 하락을 예견하며 애플에 풋옵션(하락 베팅)을 보유하고 있음. 시장 상황: S&P500 약 -21%, 나스닥 -24%, 러셀2000 -25%로 모두 약세장 진입. 버리는 2008년 금융위기와 비교하며 거품 붕괴를 경고. 포트폴리오 주요 종목: 1위 애플 풋옵션(비중 17.9%, 약 3,597만 달러) — 하락 베팅. 2위 브리스톨마이어스스퀴브(10.9%, 2,190만 달러), 3위 부킹홀딩스(9.3%, 1,880만 달러), 4위 디스커버리(9.3%, 1,870만 달러, 이후 워너미디어와 합병해 WBD로 변경), 5위 알파벳(9.0%, 1,810만 달러), 6위 시그나(8.9%, 1,800만 달러), 7위 메타플랫폼(8.8%), 8위 아벤티브(8.1%), 9위 넥스터미디어(7.1%), 10위 스텔란티스(4.8%), 11위 글로벌페이먼츠(4.5%), 12위 스포츠맨스웨어하우스(소형 가치 베팅). 버크셔 헤서웨이 대비: 버펫은 애플을 42.8% 비중으로 보유해 버리와 정반대 포지션. 에너지 섹터는 올해 강세, 아벤티브는 연초 대비 약 31% 상승. 디스커버리는 합병 후 차익거래 수익 실현으로 해석. 출연자 전망: 버리는 거품 붕괴와 추가 하락을 경고하는 입장이나, 영상은 그의 과거 포지션 공개 데이터 분석이 중심이며 명시적 단기 목표가는 제시되지 않음. 리스크: 풋옵션은 기간 경과 시 가치 소멸 가능, 시장 반등 시 손실 위험. 포트폴리오 공개 시점과 현재 시점 차이 존재.
다듬은 글
welcome back to wealthology for today's video we will be going to talk about how to prepare for the market crash 2.0 let's get started michael bury has been outspoken about the recent market collapse comparing it to the crisis of 2008 and claiming it like watching a plane fall he displayed how the market was trending downward and predicted that a huge speculative bubble would burst now the majority of people did not believe him and many referred to him as a broken clock that constantly made mistakes however many people are beginning to retract their statements in light of this year's market developments it looks that burri was accurate and his warning of a market catastrophe the s p 500 is down 21 the nasdaq is down 24 percent theoretical 2 000 is down 25 and all of these are in bear market territory if you look at the major stock market indexes in this video we examine michael bury's preparation for the current market environment as well as the composition of his portfolio and these stocks he owns what we discovered is really intriguing his largest position is a short and he is shorting one significant stake let's look at the 12 positions that michael berry now owns since he owns 12 equities in total stock 1 apple 17.9 this is now his largest position and it's really fascinating brewery owns a put option worth 17.9 of the portfolio with a market value of 35.97 million dollars on the apple stock for those who don't know a per option is a contract that pays out if the price of the stock declines so burri is essentially waggering that the price of apple's stock will decline exactly as he did in 2008 when they shortened the housing market exactly as he did in 2008 when he shorted the housing market the largest stock on the stock market apple is what he is shorting this time microsoft valued at 1.9 trillion dollars why would you bet against this behemoth of a company but if this is the exact reason why burri has chosen to shore apple it's so big which means it has a lot of potential room to fall of course as the old saying goes the bigger they are the harder they fall also he's making the opposite bet to the one that warren buffett is making buffett's largest position at his investing firm is apple the stock was not the put option so that was worth 42.8 percent of buffett's portfolio and it is by far the largest stock that he owns so it's very interesting to see these two big investing players at opposite ends of a bet with their largest positions stock 2 bristol myers squibb 10.9 percent his largest stock position that isn't a put is bristol myers squibb it comes in at number two in terms of the size of its portfolio worth 10.9 percent valued at 21.9 million dollars therefore bristol meyer squib is an american pharmaceutical company that seeks to create medications to aid patients with diseases like cancer aids diabetes arthritis and etc this obviously profits pharmaceutical companies however it's also possible that it's just the numbers behind the stock bristol myers crib is trading at 76.50 per share and it's one of those uncommon stocks that has performed well in 2022.
since bury purchased the stock in the fourth quarter of 2021 at an average price of 62.30 it appears as though he has already gained some money with this stock stock 3 booking holdings 9.3 percent this position is valued at eighteen point eight million dollars is worth nine point three percent of his disclosed portfolio booking holdings you've probably heard of it it's the online travel fair company they own a bunch of these online travel brands like booking.com agada cheapflightspriceline.com and a couple more burri made a wise move here as travel agencies undoubtedly suffered during the epidemic when everything was shut down and now the things are starting to open again bury's wager is that if these businesses will begin conducting more business and turning a profit brewery acquired shares in the first quarter of 2022 at an average cost of 2 348 dollars per share but at the moment the stock is trading for 1 890 which means that we can purchase it at a price that is likely lower than what brewery paid stock 4 discovery inc 9.3 percent this is pretty much the same size as berry booking holdings position it's valued at 18.7 million dollars again worth 9.3 percent of the portfolio and he owns 750 000 shares of stock therefore discovery is a media corporation that owns celebration networks including science animal planet tlc and discovery channel the intriguing thing about this talk right now is that it is no longer in existence i looked everywhere on the internet for this talk before discovering that it merged with warner media on april 8 2022 bury engaged in a little amount of stock arbitrage and profited from the merger with warner media the stock now trades under the ticker named wbd stock five alphabet nine point zero percent google often known as alphabet stock is boris fifth largest holding with a market value of 18.1 million dollars accounting for nine percent of the portfolio murray purchased this stock in the first quarter of 2022 at an average expected price of 2781 dollars per share as is well known the main id companies have recently been struggling and as a result google's share price has fallen significantly this year currently trading at two thousand two hundred thirty dollars per share the fact that brewery shorted apple shares while also owning google stock struck us as particularly intriguing they are both incredibly large corporations but perhaps there is only a slight advantage to apple because it is worth roughly 700 million dollars more than google perhaps this explains why he shorted apple while buying google additionally it's possible that he likes google's financial model which relies on advertising rather than phone sales stock 6 cigna holding 8.9 cigna the healthcare and insurance company is the sixth largest holding currently so it's worth 8.9 of his portfolio he has 75 000 shares of the company valued at 18 million dollars cygnus stock again it's one of those rare ones that is actually not done bad in 2022.
while most companies are declining this year cigna is up 9.3 percent year-to-date murray purchased cigna in the first quarter of this year at an average price of 240 dollars per share and it is currently selling for 256 dollars so he may have already made a small profit stock 7 meta platforms 8.8 you'll notice that a number of these positions are valued roughly a tenth of his overall portfolio around the tenth percent mark buries seventh largest position previously known of course as facebook is worth 8.8 of the portfolio anyone who has been following mata's talk will be aware of its significant struggles this year it has fallen from a price of 340 to 155 dollars as of today which is almost halfway down stock 8 aventive 8.1 percent one of the biggest producers of natural gas liquids natural gas and oil condensate in north america is burri which has the eighth largest position with a holding worth 16.2 million dollars the stock represents 8.1 percent of the portfolio's value i don't know whether you guys have been following this but what industry will have the best performance in 2022.
in terms of green healthcare there are really just two sectors although energy stocks have performed the best in general this year's performance of energy companies has been strong and alvantev has followed suit aventive is up 31 year to date as a result of the explosion in oil and gas prices which we have almost likely been following and the increased demand and pricing have been profitable for energy firms so it is clear that brewery has benefited greatly from this decision stock 9 nexter media group 7.1 percent you'll notice that brewery does own quite a few of these media and communication companies for example google facebook nextdoor and discovery are all in the communication sector which is america's largest local television and media company the next company with a value of 14.4 million dollars represents 7.1 percent of the portfolio it is one of the few equities that has not experienced a decline this year and as of right now it is actually up 4.2 percent year-to-date stock 10 11 12.
stalantes global payments and sportsmans warehouse okay now that we've finished the last three holdings in brewery's portfolio there are a few things we need to make clear regarding michael bury and his positions stalantes a manufacturer of automobiles in his 10th largest holding it accounts for 4.8 percent of his portfolio is his 10th largest holding it accounts for 4.8 percent of his 9.7 million dollar portfolio consequently fired chrysler and the french psa group merged to form this firm global payments sticker symbol gpn is number 11.
gpn accounts for 4.5 of the portfolio's 9.1 million dollar market value his last holding in his portfolio is sportsman's warehouse an american outdoor sporting goods store whose stock has dropped 43 over the previous year it is currently only worth 1.3 and has a value of 2.6 million barry may simply be using this as a value play to take advantage of the low price what have you discovered about our topic please let me know in the comments section below and if you like this video please give it a thumbs up turn on the notification bell and subscribe to our channel for more thank you for taking the time to watch stay tuned for our next video
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