저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 영상은 2015년 월스트리트저널 기사 속 Citadel(켄 그리핀) 발언을 근거로 GME 공매도 세력이 여전히 손실 포지션을 유지 중일 것이라는 추측을 제기하지만, 본인이 스스로 투자 자문이 아니며 추측일 뿐이라고 밝힌 영상이다. 기사 내용 요약: 2008년 금융위기 이후에도 Citadel이 공격적 확장을 했고, 그리핀이 '우리는 돈을 만들어낸다'고 발언했으며, 2015년 기준 고객 자금 1달러당 7달러를 투자하는 높은 레버리지를 쓴다고 주장한다. 과거 사례: Citadel이 JC페니 공매도로 주가 45달러에서 6달러까지 떨어뜨려 성공했다는 기사 내용을 언급하며, 유사한 쇠퇴 리테일 기업으로 GME를 연결한다. 금융위기 당시 Citadel이 투자자 출금을 10개월간 막았고, 회복까지 3년 17일이 걸렸다는 내용을 언급한다. 발표자는 Citadel이 '고통스러운 보유 자산'을 계속 들고 있을 것이라고 추측한다. GME 관련 주장: 발표자는 GME 주가가 20달러에서 200달러 이상으로 올라 공매도 포지션이 10배 손실 상태일 수 있다고 주장하며, 높은 레버리지 때문에 청산하지 못하고 있을 것이라고 추측한다. GME 회사 측 상황: 회사가 주식 매각으로 10억 달러 이상 현금을 확보했고 부채가 거의 없어 파산 가능성은 낮으며, 주가가 다시 20달러 근처로 떨어질 가능성도 낮다고 본다. 상관관계 정리: 금융위기 후 공격적 투자, 레버리지, JC페니 공매도 성공, 손실 포지션 보유 가능성을 연결해 Citadel 관련 추측을 전개한다. 리스크 및 한계: 발표자는 여러 번 '추측'과 '의견'이라고 명시하며, 특정 기관의 현재 포지션을 확인할 수 있는 근거는 제시하지 않는다. 출연자 전망: 공매도 세력이 GME에서 손실을 보고 있을 가능성이 높다는 개인적 추측이 중심이며, 특정 종목의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
but we do manufacture money you do what you manufacture what all right guys i just read some really really interesting stuff in this article written by the wall street journal about citadel back from 2015 remember that key point of this video this article was written in 2015 and we're talking about now june 2021 making some correlations speculations of course i am not a financial advisor not financial advice simply thoughts and opinions in this video and just some things going on that might be out there i don't know we're just gonna speculate let's jump right in so i was reading this article right and i was able to put together five main points that really made sense to me in terms of the alleged maybe who knows short selling naked short selling and they could call option writing they could put option writing all that good stuff but the first thing that stood out out to me in this article was ken griffin bragging about being aggressive with investing right nearly seven years after standing at the brink of collapse during the financial crisis amid heavy losses and struggled to build an investment bank chicago-based citadel has crawled back near the top of the hedge fund heat but rather than take it slow as many competitors have done since the 2008 shock mr griffin is again embarking on an aggressive expansion mr griffin is again embarking on an aggressive expansion aggressively expanding right after 2008 does not wake you up to what could happen if you're very over leveraged have things on top of things on top of things on top of things that are all backed by the one same thing or nothing at all ring a belt what's going on right now anyways let's jump to the second point this one i thought was crazy like business is business mr griffin said in a series of interviews with the wall street journal i don't manufacture cars but we do manufacture money you do what you manufacture what something about that doesn't seem right let's go to the next point after you say you aggressively invest you quote manufacture money then you talk about this article being able to have more leverage than any of its hedge fund peers for every one dollar of client money at seven dollars invested for citadel remember i said this article is from 2015 if they were doing this in 2015 who knows how much they're levered up now that's anybody's guess that kind of leads you know to some people to think if your short game stop why would you not over leverage on it just thoughts and speculation can't confirm anything just interesting when you read this from 2015 and you think about what's happening now anyways this is where it gets really really interesting guys among its most successful wagers in recent years was betting against jcpenney when activist investor william akman pressed an unsuccessful turnaround plan at the retailer citadel rode the short sale as jc penny shares fell to six dollars from 45.
hmm sound familiar if you're kenny griffin and you'll see what happens with jcpenney blockbuster toys r us all these other retailers similar to gamestop you see gamestop dying retailer and a public health crisis a pandemic who's going to retail stores when you can buy your video games right on the ps5 right on the xbox right on the pc who's going to go risk their life in a pandemic right let's shorten it like shrek the crap out of it ryan cohen comes in they did not take ryan cohen seriously they thought he was just another activist investor now if you're shorting gamestop below 20 and it's over 200 now and you're down 10x on your money and you're levered up maybe seven x maybe more now what does that tell you about the kind of position they're in so why are they not just covered they have so much money they have so much money like it's it's citadel it's a huge thing listen to this final point the table's turn during the financial crisis when his firm lost 8 billion to avert collapse citadel barred its investors from withdrawing money for 10 months a move that still rankles even someone stuck with it listen to that again to avert collapse the citadel barred its investors from selling like what for 10 months imagine you had your money in there and you're trying to get it it's freaking financial crisis you need some cash you gotta withdraw some of your money sorry we don't wanna we don't wanna go bankrupt so you can't have your money the firm gradually came back waiting for the market to rebound before selling many of its distressed holdings mr griffin said it took exactly three years and 17 days to earn back the losses i think mr griffin kept track of that number just a funny feeling i have again speculations and thoughts in this video just my opinions if you know that exact number you're pretty aggressive competitive and if you're quote willing to wait for the market to rebound before selling many of its distressed holdings if gme is down 10x if you're still shorting it at a 20 and it's in the 200s now you're down 10x at least on your money mind the fact that you might be levered up i think that's a pretty distressed holding but guess what now they have over well over a billion dollars in cash they raised over a billion from this last sale of stock in general they have like no debt over a billion in cash they're not going bankrupt i don't think it's going down anywhere near 20 again this time you cannot hold your distressed holding mr griffin mr griffin i think your distressed holding is very very distressed and only to become more distressed if especially if this guy you know citadel they're really over leveraged you know just some thoughts a lot of people say there might be a lot of banks a lot of people involved with this going on makes sense that's what we saw in 2008 right but what happened in 2008 everybody got bailed out who went down fourth largest investment bank in the world at that time lehman brothers citadel equal lehman brothers 2008 citadel 2021 sorry 2008 lehman brothers 2021 citadel maybe maybe somebody needs to go down it's just the thought they're the market maker they're the largest fund that was involved with shorting gme to our knowledge at least just some interesting correlations like quick a little recap brags about aggressive investing after a huge financial crisis quote manufactures money is willing to invest seven dollars per one dollar of client money back in 2015 and bragging about that and bragging about being top in the industry of the hedge phones short selling g jc penny successfully from 45 to six maybe i i know i said blockbuster and toys r us before but maybe they'd necessarily be involved with those but other family retailers probably look what you do with jcpenney in an activist story ryan cohen is an activist investor is he not and then final point willing to hold his distressed holdings he's probably been holding gme on the way up thinking it's gonna go back down it's gonna go back down uh-oh they just sold shares for 225 and raised a billion dollars they have billion dollars of cash and no debt well over a billion dollars in cash and no debt now and they sold the shares at 225 average price higher than the stock where the stock's trading right now as of today's close put all this together guys i mean it's just again thoughts and opinions i am not a financial advisor it's just interesting when you see like all these correlations and like just kind of reading this article at best gave me insight to how this guy thinks and the sperm thinks and what wall street does and the potential of what's going on now like comment subscribe let me know what you think jimmy
Comments 0