저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 중앙은행의 무분별한 개입으로 금융시스템이 훼손됐고 머지않아 위기가 올 것이라 주장한다. 위기 시 귀금속이 구매력을 유지할 것이며 세계 인구의 자산 중 금 비중은 2% 미만이라고 말한다. 미국 빅7·반도체 등 주식은 버블 상태이며 자금이 채권으로 이동할 수 있다고 본다. 채권 금리는 1990년 일본 10년물 7%에서 하락해 왔고 미국 10년물도 2020년 0.57%에서 현재 약 4%다. 금리 시나리오는 경기침체형(채권 가격 상승, 즉 금리 하락)과 재정·통화 팽창형(장기금리 상승) 두 가지를 제시한다. 후자에서 주식·부동산은 실질적으로 하락하고 달러는 귀금속 대비 최대 90% 가치를 잃을 수 있다고 본다.
다듬은 글
went to the USA. The US population grew from 4 million in 1800 to 80 million in 1900. And there was no inflation. Why was there no inflation? Very simple. There were no stupid economists and central bankers who destroyed the economic system through interventions they had no idea about. You can give someone a gold coin worth, say, $10,000 or something like that.
Uh, they have a little problem with their kids, their parents, or something like that. They give it away. Global financial markets are experiencing unprecedented change as income inequality rises sharply and asset valuations reach historic highs. Many ordinary investors remain completely unaware of the structural rot deeply embedded in the modern economic system, making their hard- earned portfolios vulnerable to sudden market corrections.
Financial analyst Mark Faber emphasizes that the aggressive steps of current world powers will not lead to anything good for global stability. He argues that modern central bankers have completely destroyed the global economic structure through endless senseless interventions. Moreover, his main prediction points to an imminent crisis during which precious metals will successfully maintain their purchasing power, as the world's population currently holds less than 2% of their total assets in gold.
As conventional financial instruments face extreme volatility, diversification into real commodities remains the only viable path to preserving family wealth in the face of systemic collapse. Smart investors should prepare immediately for these major macroeconomic chang. We are seeing all sorts of aggressive moves by world powers, and I'm afraid it might not end well.
And uh, since we spoke, a lot of uh markets have gone up. I mean, many assets have increased significantly in price, while others have fallen. So, there were big moves in the markets that could be made. I mean, let's say, the last time we talked, no one was interested in precious metals. This has changed.
I'm not saying all of you viewers should run out and buy gold, silver, and platinum, but uh, it's been a big change in the last two years. Precious metals outperforming financial assets , I'm an economist, and I studied economics, but I wrote my thesis mostly on fiscal and financial policy, fiscal and monetary policy, and financial reforms in the 19th century, and uh, I have to say, I'm a little surprised by how much money I have .
It's hard to believe . You know, you have a portfolio of stocks and, uh, a portfolio of precious metals , and suddenly their value increases significantly, and you tell yourself that wealth inequality has increased significantly because I've been working since 1970, and so I've always had savings and excess income.
I had more income than I spent, so I have assets, and those assets have increased in value significantly. And I think about the 50% of Americans who have no assets, or if you look at the world's population, the majority of people have nothing. I live here in Thailand, in the north. I see it every day.
There are people there, they go to bed with only about $100 in assets, you know. I mean, it's really, in some cases, heartbreaking , but I'm lucky, and so I have assets, even though I'm as a social observer, as an economic historian, as an economist, and also as a kind of political philosopher. I have to say that the system is rotten because in society you essentially want to be a society like the US in the 19th century.
Why did people want to go to the US in the first place? Because the opportunities in America were much better than in Europe. So they all fled to the US, and they didn't go there because of social security, not because of all sorts of benefits. They left because, by working hard, they could improve their lives, which was not possible in Europe.
So I went to the USA. The US population grew from 4 million in 1800 to 80 million in 1900. And there was no inflation. Why was there no inflation? It's all very simple. There were no stupid economists and central bankers destroying the economic system with interventions they had no idea about. The prime example of intervention without any idea is Mr.
Trump. He is an ignorant interventionist. I would vote for him anytime, compared to, say, Kamala Harris and Mr. Bush. But he is an ignorant interventionist, and that is dangerous. But anyway, what I wanted to say is, you know, I look at my fortune as the assets have grown, and I say to myself: can this go on forever?
No. Now you say: Mark, we already talked about this 10 years ago, and you said it wouldn't last forever, and it's still going on. And I would say, "Yes, you're right. I started in 1970. In '71, Nixon went off the gold standard. Then inflation went up, and around 1980, I met with a strategist at Merrill Lynch.
They were all saying that there was going to be a debt collapse. They were famous strategists Dan Salvixon and Ironstine, Mike Aronstine and Charlie Mather, and they were predicting that the entire debt system in America was going to collapse by the end of the '80s. Well, we had a crash in '87, but, you know, it's amazing how the system held up, especially, you know, I predicted the crash in '82.
I happened to predict it the next day. One of my big predictions was the crash of the Japanese stock market. So , in '89, Japan was over 50% of the world's market capitalization, and I thought that if Japan collapsed, it would affect other markets. Yes, that's It was affected, money flowed out of Japan into other markets, and they did well, like the NASDAQ.
And so, you know , when you look at the projections, a lot of things happen, but the impact is different from what you thought: the crash of NASDAQ stocks now in the "MAX 7" (MAX 7), which are clearly in a "bubble" state. The valuations are skyrocketing, like semiconductors and so on, and then we could see the movement of other markets.
I want to tell you about the result because I've helped a lot of poor people. The first little storm that happens after they get, let's say, the kind of money that you're talking about, and I've given people a lot more. You can give someone a gold coin worth, let's say, $10,000 or something. They have a little problem with their kids, or their parents, or something.
They give it away in that situation. I want to be diversified, and I'm not saying that gold is now cheap. No, because oil is much cheaper. You know, we can compare prices. So oil is cheap relative to gold, and wheat, corn, and soybeans are cheap relative to gold. Coffee is relatively expensive, and so on and so forth .
But one thing is clear to me: no matter what happens, I think precious metals will retain their purchasing power because people hold at most one or two percent of their assets in gold. They don't have much gold. If you go to a cocktail party in New York or something, of course women will say, "Yeah, we have gold and so on." If you dig a little deeper, they have a gold earring or an ounce of gold, but not a ton or a kilogram of gold.
No, they don't have that. And most people, I'll tell you, when the price of gold and silver started to go up, they sold it. We can measure how much money is in ETFs. Very little. The current state of the market is showing clear signs of a dangerous bubbles, especially in G7 stocks and the semiconductor sector, where valuations have reached skyrocketing levels.
Historical examples show that such extreme market capitalization is unsustainable and inevitably leads to severe corrections, provoking capital flight into shadow sectors around the world. A significant downturn in economic activity is likely to force a massive reallocation of capital as investors seek safety.
In such a scenario, bond prices are expected to rise significantly as governments are forced to print vast amounts of money to artificially prop up a failing economy. This desperate monetary intervention would be a dramatic turning point for traditional portfolios, shifting the entire financial landscape from overvalued stocks to defensive positions, forcing a complete reassessment of risk across all asset classes in the interest of capital preservation.
Now back to the interview. I mean, there are periods, and I just looked at the 10- year Japanese bond chart. Do you know what the 10-year Japanese bond yield was in 1990? No. 7%. That's right. That's a remarkable thing. In financial history, the Japanese stock market was the largest in the world by market capitalization in 1989.
So the peak was December 31, 1989. Then the market started to fall, and as you said, the market capitalization was over 50% of the world, and now it's down to less than 5%, and at the same time interest rates have come down, and we've had one of the biggest bull markets in bond prices in history. I mean, the 10- year bond is close to 0%.
That's amazing. I was also in the US in May 2020. The low for the US 10-year Treasury was 0.57%. We're at 4.00 now. And that's something that investors should think about. What are interest rates going to do in the United States? Because I'm going to give you two scenarios. One scenario assumes that bond prices are going to go up because the economy is going to be in bad shape, etc., and because the Fed is going to print money under Trump.
Okay, that's one scenario, in my opinion. That scenario is possible, but it only requires a recession . I mean, you need a significant recession , and even then there are questions because the level of debt in the United States is such that some people are going to ask, how is the United States going to be able to pay the interest and how is it going to be able to pay off the debt in the long run?
But let's say the economy is in terrible shape and there's a flight to safety: people are taking money out of stocks, which are at their peak, and buying bonds, which are undervalued and at their bottom. levels. I'm not saying they're very cheap, but they're on the low end. The other scenario is that interest rates are rising, the Trump administration is printing money, which is causing prices to skyrocket, and as a result, long-term interest rates, which the Fed doesn't have full control over, by the way.
They control the Fed rate, but they don't really control other interest rates. Long-term rates are rising, and that's a huge problem. I mean, stock prices and housing prices are going to fall if interest rates go up significantly. What do you mean by "fall"? I have to clarify: relative to what? Because in nominal terms, it's quite possible that the Dow Jones index will hit 100,000, but the dollar will lose 90% of its value relative to a stable currency, which I consider gold, silver, and platinum—not cryptocurrencies or stablecoins with the Trump stamp.
That's not what I would buy. Unless as a collector's item subject. The alternative financial trajectory proposes a very different scenario, in which long-term interest rates do not fall but rise sharply. This surge would be driven by aggressive fiscal spending and endless money printing, which would inevitably push consumer prices to unprecedented heights.
Since the central bank cannot fully control the long end of the yield curve, market forces would push rates up, creating immediate hardship for heavily indebted sectors. At the same time, stock and property prices are projected to suffer a catastrophic collapse in real terms if interest rates rise significantly.
While nominal rates may soar deceptively— for example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average could reach $100,000—the base currency is expected to lose up to 90% of its purchasing power relative to stable tangible assets such as gold, silver, and platinum, exposing the main vulnerability of paper wealth in a collapsing system.
Ultimately , true wealth preservation will depend solely on owning scarce assets during the upcoming global economic reset and securing long-term personal financial independence. If you found this issues. Stay alert, stay prepared, and continue accumulating material assets.
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