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Welcome back to the Watchlist. I'm Nicole Petalides. With me now is Dan Ives, partner and senior managing director, analyst at Wedbush Securities. I'm very glad you're with us. Nice to see you. So, let's begin. You talk about this era , the golden age of growth thanks to the artificial intelligence revolution, and you call it a historic event.
Other times. Why? I mean the amount of money spent. If you look at it, over the next 4-5 years, between 4 and 5 trillion dollars will be spent. And for every dollar of capital spending, there is a multiplier of $5-6 in the rest of the technology sector. This only confirms my point: we are only just approaching the secondary, tertiary, and quaternary effects of AI.
I believe investors continue to significantly underestimate the scale of what this will look like in terms of earnings and fundamental development over the next 12-18 months , which is why we are so bullish on the stock at this new stage. We think about supply and demand, and you focus on supply. I see companies saying they can't keep up with demand.
What really defines this AI cycle for you? Yes, we will be in Korea next week. Currently, the demand-to-supply ratio for chips is 13 to 1 . If you're a company and you 've developed a strategic initiative around AI and you say, "Okay, we're giving the green light today." You won't implement it until the end of next year, summer, or December of next year because of the backlog .
This means that Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, Alphabet , Amazon, as well as companies like Palantir and cybersecurity representatives will benefit. This is the golden age of technology, and for the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China in technology. So when I saw midweek that you published technology predictions for 2027.
I know you cover 49 titles, maybe a little less or more, but you have the "Ives 30" which you narrow down to five major technology ideas. These are probably the names people should write down. Nvidia, Microsoft, Palantir, Apple, CrowdStrike. Nvidia, let's briefly dwell on each of them for a few seconds.
Nvidia, Microsoft. Well, first of all, Nvidia investors are underestimating earnings by, I think, 20 percent. I mean, we set a $ 300 target price on the stock , but you can bet it could go much higher because physical AI and the real next phase of the cycle have n't even started yet . Now let's move on to Microsoft.
This all happens on their territory with regard to corporate developments, because Azure's performance is so confident. This is a stock that could have a six or maybe even a seven ahead. And this only confirms the importance of chips for hyperscalers. Palantir remains our favorite software company, and I believe its market cap could reach a trillion dollars within the next two to three years.
And if you think about expanding attack surfaces and agents. This is optimistic for cybersecurity. CrowdStrike, of course, and Palo Alto, which, as you know, are at the center of events as the main beneficiaries. And when it comes to the consumer AI revolution, Apple from Cupertino are like toll collectors on the AI highway .
Now, I don't think that's factored into the price. I believe this adds $75 to the value of each share. What do you think about you just calling Apple a fee collector? John Turnus is now at the helm. I'm curious to hear what you think about how he's doing. We also heard reports today that components for the 18th model are being cut back, possibly due to somewhat weak demand.
"Duo" is coming out soon. It will be available for pre- order, this foldable phone, and maybe we'll even have a MacBook with a touchscreen. How is John Turnus doing? What about these specific products ? Well, first of all, if I had a dollar for every report over the last four or five years about, so to speak, the reduction in iPhone orders that didn't come through, I would have a lot more money today.
The point is that it only confirms my point. I believe that iPhone 18 performance will be significantly higher than expected. So I disagree with some of the things that go against what we see in supply chains. And I think when it comes to Ternus, its legacy will be defined by this chapter on AI and AI-enabled devices.
I believe that 20% of the world's population will eventually have access to AI through an Apple device. And I think as things go, they're becoming a real giant in what they're going to do in the next phase of the technology cycle. You said that artificial intelligence would determine it. How? You said you were waiting for the next phase.
What is this? I mean, finally they can act, you know, obviously implement it. Finally, they have a solution in the field of AI from a strategic perspective. You know, Gemini—that's one of the key elements in how they build it. But I look at it as an established user base. You 're going to monetize 1.5 billion iPhones, 2.5 billion iOS devices .
Think of the App Store, think of the functionality that will eventually appear on the phone. The consumer AI revolution, Apple, yes, did they stumble for a few years, yes. But now it's possible to be late when you have such an established base. And I just think that's not factored into the stock price at the current level.
Palantir software is your favorite. How high can Palantir go? This is a company you chose a long time ago, where do you think things are heading and why? I think it could double over the next 2-3 years. I mean, this is a company where as free cash flow grows and enterprises move to AI, and because of what they've done with AIP and their ontology, and because of how Karp and the team see the future, I think that's going to define the way enterprises do business.
And I think they've clearly changed a lot of how businesses sell today. But Palantir has technology that is unmatched. That's why, if you think back to the fictional narrative of the SaaS apocalypse, you remember how Anthropic was supposed to bypass Palantir and all that. If you talk to any CIO, they will tell you that Palantir has technology that is unmatched when it comes to AI use cases.
And I think as it expands, whether in the corporate or public sector, Palantir's market cap will reach a trillion dollars. I think you have a lot of names like that here. If people want to read, I guess they can go to Yorkville and maybe find your whole list. There's a big long list. Another company you've been mentioning a bit more recently is SpaceX.
Had a great conversation with Landon Swan from Folio. I don't remember him being so optimistic during our previous conversations. He provided us with data that supports his confidence in this asset. We also learned the news that Apollo and other banks are now helping SpaceX pay for Nvidia chips. What do you think about SpaceX?
Where is it headed and what do you think about these companies now looking for funding to buy chips outside the tech sector? Yes, because it is truly a process of convergence. I mean, if you look at what SpaceX is doing , they are actually transforming into the next hyperscaler. So I like their strategy for Nvidia chips in the context of building for the coming years.
And this is much more of a data game than the so-called space game. You and I have talked about how I believe there is over an 80% chance of SpaceX and Tesla merging by the end of next year because of data and all the AI technologies under one roof. SpaceX, given the IPO and the lock-up period , you will encounter moments when you will have to be very nervous.
You know, the target is 215, but I continue to think that this is just an early stage of where the company will be in years to come. The price target right now...well, the price right now is -161. What is your realistic optimistic price target for SpaceX? Listen, I think that in the coming years, when they start implementing this, it could be many times more than it is today.
So, becoming a hyperscaler, it goes back to Musk's vision: to make this a hyperscaler, to become a kind of universal Swiss army knife for AI. And I think that's exactly what they're trying to do in all directions. And I think this shows that they are building this brick by brick. But I think what they did with Nvidia and the capacity build-out is exactly what needs to be done.
This is an arms race taking place in the technological sphere. It's like the development of the Vegas Strip in 1955. You have ...there are only a limited number of seats on the Vegas Strip. If you suddenly decide to build there in 5 years, you will end up in Reno at that point. And I think that's how these tech companies understand what they're doing.
Now is the time in this golden era, in the third stage of the AI revolution. I see that there are old well-known companies like IBM and Dell, in addition to new names that people are following, from SK Hynix to Nvidia, and perhaps companies that are less well-known . I noticed Snowflake there. Um, Meta, there are a lot of hyperscalers out there, the big seven names: Apple, Meta, Alphabet, they're all there, Nvidia.
And finally, when a downturn occurs, how much should you buy ? What proportion of technology companies should you have in your portfolio? What advice would you give to someone who is 30 years old and has a diversified portfolio? I don't want to sound ironic or condescending, but when a person is 30 years old, what do you tell them on a pullback day when we fall by 5-10%, because we expect volatility until the end of the year.
What should they do? I will tell them that you are in the third year of a 10-12 year phase of building a true fourth industrial revolution. There will be moments of tension, but look at the funding, even yesterday, given the OpenAI report. But the reality is that we are in for a multi-year bull market in technology.
And pessimists have already predicted 10 of the last two recessions. And pessimists don't see AI in their spreadsheets when they're in hibernation mode. This is the time to own technology leaders. And when such opportunities arise regarding winners, you must use them. This is how we continue to operate in these markets.
Very quickly, technological boom and bust, I was here, you were here. Why is it so different for those who don't believe or think that everything is AI now in the development of artificial intelligence? What would you say makes this different from 1999? Well, back then, tech stocks were trading at 30 to earnings, today they're trading at 23 to earnings.
Back then, these were venture-backed companies, you know, with basically PowerPoint-style business models. Today, it's a big tech with trillions on its balance sheets, spending 300-400 billion a year on building what I consider the AI revolution, this new economy. And the use cases are real. Look at the expenses that are occurring.
This will change consumer and corporate society, and ultimately AI will create more jobs than it takes away. And I just think there's always a danger in that, Nicole: it's always easy to look back and say, "Oh, this could have been another one of those moments." But many pessimists have missed every transformative technology event of the last 25 years because they always say, "Oh, this is the end." And I just think that's part of what shapes this market.
Why did Elon Musk say : "In 5 years I won't have a single app on my phone"? I have many applications. Well, I mean, Musk is definitely against this, you know, Apple ecosystem and that kind of vision in general. But this shows that each technology company approaches this in its own way. Musk is doing his job.
Nadella is doing his thing. Godfather Jensen—another one. You know, I mean, you can just follow the list, right? And this is a real arms race that is happening now. That's why these companies will spend money like they're on a Ferrari in the left lane at 100 mph , not 45 mph in the right lane. Something tells me you drive in the left lane too, Dan Ives.
Almost sure of it. Dan Ives, your call, Ives and Company. You, Dan. Nice to see you. Thank you.
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