저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 대선(35일 남음)과 중동 긴장·항만 파업으로 단기 변동성이 예상되지만, 저점 매수 기회로 봄. 비트코인은 현물 ETF 승인 시 15만 달러 이상, 승인 실패 시에도 반감기 공급 감소로 상승 여지 있다고 봄. 과거 전쟁 시 매수 기회였고 현금 대기 자금(마진부채 감소, MMF 증가)이 있어 하방 제한적. 중국 증시는 장기적으로 불리하지만 단기 반등 가능성 언급, 연말 상승 여지 제시. 파업이 길어지면 GDP 타격과 연준 완화 기대 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
I think we're still in the midst of a very tricky period shocking new outlook from fun strats Tom Lee we've got the election in less than 35 days this man is a market expert and he just made an amazing New Market prediction for Q4 2024 going into 2025 the big move has happened the question is do you see that doubling you remember Tom Lee of course he put himself on record multiple times this year and last calling for a one $50,000 bitcoin price in 2024 this is him making that prediction at the end of 2023 I always like hearing your price targets CU you are so Fearless um where are you on bitcoin by by the end of next year let's say uh well if the spot Bitcoin gets approved yeah I think the demand will be greater than the the daily supply of Bitcoin and so the clearing price uh this is done by Shan f who's our crypto digital strategist is is over 150,000 it could even be like 180,000 but that's only if the spot only if the ETF gets approved yeah the US a spot us because a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved outside the US okay but if it's not approved then are we just lingering around 29,000 uh there's still upside Cal because the havening next year so you'll have a drop in Supply again so the clearing price has to increase but it won't be six figures and this is him standing by that prediction right before bitcoin's having in 2024 I said 75 what what did you say to me I I think it's you know could be as high as 150,000 this year so double what I thought was yeah 150,000 so we're tripling at this point yeah because you've got demand improving with the ETF and you have the supply shrinking with the havening and if monetary policy eases which we expect you know that's supportive of risk assets and bitcoin's holding up I mean that's another reason why I don't think a draw down is going to start that soon I mean bitcoin's been rallying last couple weeks now Tomley just graced CNBC with his presence again giving us a new interview updating us on his thoughts on the market the question is is Tomley changing his tune because some things have changed or what does he think I think we're still in the midst of a very tricky period because we've got the election in l than 35 days and now we've got two things that investors don't know how to discount one is you know mounting tensions in the Middle East and then a Port strike I think that as investors worry about this if we get a dip and a a big dip I think you still want to buy that dip because the setup into your end has a lot of Tailwinds so shortterm expect volatility let's talk worst case scenario what is the worst case scenario the worst case scenario for the port uh situation is something that we've seen and we shut down an economy already and that was probably a time to buy we know that so we've seen that movie before could it be I can't imagine it could be as bad as the pandemic but we have shut down in the economy before yeah that's right so I think it it creates headline risk because you know the longer this strike lasts there'll be companies that Miss and so S&P earnings might get downgraded or some stocks might miss results but that's all just temporary I mean those are just short-term headwinds cuz it doesn't change the long-term Outlook what about prior War times let's learn from history very strange that it it I don't remember any war that lasts that that were the effects and we've been through quite a few back in the 9s and in in the 2000s it never seemed to have the the as negative an effect on the overall markets as as we thought at the beginning of each that's right in fact if we look at the last six sort of global uh Wars or tensions you almost always buy The Invasion the exception was 2022 with the Russia Ukraine war because we were also in the midst of a Fed tightening cycle so that was not a buy The Invasion event but the other times you did want to buy both Iraq Wars yep both Iraq and uh was the market where was the market before that happened had had levels come down or were they trading at near highs or at highs yes it you know this is different because we are hovering near highs and we're an extended market and things aren't cheap in in uh terms of multiples that's right but at the at the same time we also know there is a lot of cash on the sidelines because margin debt hasn't risen for for 4 months and that's pretty unusual with a rising stock market and now money market cash has actually been rising at the time when the FED is is cutting so I do think there's Firepower so buy the dip is the takeaway that I'm hearing history shows us that it's usually smart to buy the dip during times like these but what about the other issues have you heard about the massive long shoreman strike the Dock Workers strike how does that factor in the other issue just the the long shoreman strike if that goes on for an extended period of time is that something we were talking before how much that cuts off the GDP if it's there for a week maybe Cuts three t0 of of the GDP yeah um for every week they're out is that something that the FED comes in with much more um aggressive um cuts and that fixes things or are there inflationary factors that also come into play and that ties their hands uh I mean the FED has to kind of put that in their calculus because the labor market is all so softened so if this is a shock in a way that causes the labor market to weaken the fed's going to be a lot more doish um but we get the payrolls report Friday and I'd say say maybe it it sort of early hint seem like it's actually going to be a better than expected report so there's a multitude of factors to consider here understand there are multivariant it's not just one thing it's not just one variant there are a multitude of variants but then you also add in what would happen from inflationary pressures not only from the long shoreman strike but potentially from oil prices going up in the Middle East too yeah that's right I think the FED at this point would be more concerned if the consumer expectations got anchored on inflation and those have actually been improving so I think the FED can be less worried about the inflation side of it you see terer talking about China do you do you would you ever subscribe to that theory buy a lot in China yeah I mean I'd say that not only did China launch a bazooka but it's it's really working right because the the the the stock market is has really broken out I think China is now the best performing stock market this year but was the move made I mean I think you know we had uh Kyle bass on yesterday and I think he would argue long long term no matter how you want to think about China it's a bad bet he was suggesting maybe in the short term it's a good bet and I don't think he was necessarily opining on whether the bet is over says but the move obviously the big move has happened the question is do you see that doubling is that in the cards at this point of the game uh yeah I mean something keeping people's back of their mind over the last 10 years China has underperformed the US by 7700 basis points so if China doubles it's still underperformed by like five 5,000 basis points so I mean there's there's a lot of room for a rally even if it looks corrective I think he you know his phrase was something like it's just a Bad Bet onc communist on no he's saying long term it's a Bad Bet but he saying short term it might be good it's not our grandfather's communism it's almost I don't even know what we need a portm to for what capitalism you know based with Communism is yeah bomic maybe kidding Andrew kidding so expect volatility shortterm longterm he's still long something like this is still in the cards either this year or beginning of 2025 there's more to the story here we're going to update you on this story soon so subscribe to the channel we publish one video every day keeping you informed on the entire cryptocurrency Market the Market's just about to start heating up you don't want to miss anything happening in crypto over the next year see you tomorrow my friends
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