저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 빌 애크먼은 투자 실수 9가지 중 7개를 소개하며 기업 본질과 장기 투자 원칙을 강조하고, 특정 자산의 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 제시하지 않는다. 투자 원칙 및 실수 소개: 애크먼은 실무 경험과 학습을 통해 실사(due diligence)의 중요성을 강조하며, 예측보다 기업 펀더멘털을 우선시한다. 핵심 투자 원칙: 단순하고 예측 가능한 잉여현금흐름(FCF)을 창출하는 지배적 기업, 높은 진입장벽, 높은 자본수익률, 강한 재무구조와 우수한 경영·지배구조를 갖춘 기업에 투자한다. 장기 투자 관점: 워런 버핏을 최고의 투자자로 꼽으며 약 60년간 20% 이상 복리 수익을 언급한다. 장기 복리 효과가 투자 성과에 큰 영향을 준다고 강조한다. 집중 투자와 다각화: 소수 종목에 집중하는 전략을 옹호하며, 세계 400대 부자 대다수가 한두 사업으로 부를 축적했다고 설명한다. 가치 평가 방식: 가격과 가치의 큰 괴리가 있을 때 투자 기회를 찾으며, 할인 원인을 분석하고 그 괴리를 좁힐 수 있는지를 판단한다. 지속 학습과 사업 이해: 벤저민 그레이엄의 『현명한 투자자』를 언급하고, 스타트업 근무 등을 통해 사업 구조를 이해하는 것이 중요하다고 조언한다. 펀더멘털 투자의 지속성: 단기 수급이나 퀀트 전략과 달리, 장기적으로는 기업 펀더멘털이 주가를 결정하므로 펀더멘털 투자의 여지는 계속 있다고 주장한다. 리스크 및 조건: 영상은 특정 시점의 시장 전망이나 개별 종목 목표가를 제시하지 않으며, 투자 실수 회피와 장기 원칙 준수를 조건으로 한다. 출연자 전망: 영상 내 명시적 시장 전망은 없으며, 장기 펀더멘털 투자에 대한 낙관적 견해만 드러난다.
다듬은 글
bill ackman is the ceo of pershing square a hedge fund management company during the kovite 19 pandemic bill was able to convert millions into billions while other investors struggle in the stock market in this video we will learn about bill ackman's 9 investing mistakes so that hopefully you and i can find opportunities to make millions mistake number one not doing your due diligence experience is making mistakes and learning from them so that's what i learned i went to business school to learn how to be a good investor and i learned the first rule of investing which is you do your due diligence before you wire in your your money and uh when i got to hbs i actually opened the course catalog for the first time and it wasn't a class on investing now there were classes on accounting or classes on finance so i decided i had to develop my own little self-study program and i wanted to so i opened a fidelity brokerage account i said this i had some money i'd made in the real estate brokerage business this was my tuition in the investment business and it was about a year of tuition and if i lost it it was as if i had gone to business school for two you know two years but paid for three but it wasn't like being the inverse of the oxford uh one plus one program but um and uh you know i the first stock i bought went up and i said okay i found what i want to do the answer is i was an entrepreneur and uh i felt that i wanted to approach investing my own way as opposed to learn from someone else it's one of the few things you can really learn on your own you can learn investing by reading books by reading annual reports by having a you can have a portfolio and invest 100 and you can and you can learn the business unlike many other businesses which require a lot mistake number two not having a sense of discipline principles are basically one invest in simple predictable free cash regenerative dominant companies with large barriers to entry that earn high returns on capital that have limited exposure to extrinsic risk we can't control strong balance sheets don't need access to capital to survive have excellent management good governance sounds logical um but you know occasionally we've diverged and there's uh those times you know there's a certain discipline that comes with investments and there always seems to be a countervailing quality that caused us to diverge but in really each case we've compromised on business quality or complexity we've been harmed mistake number three ignoring long-term investing i think i mean i hate to be boring on this i do think buffett is the greatest investor and the reason why i believe that is um you know just this is a 50-odd year it's a 60-year track record of compounding at 20 plus percent with a very modest amount of leverage you know in the form of principally insurance float and i just don't think there's a record that compares and i also think that what he does actually creates value for the world you know i think george soros is an incredible investor but i think what he does as an investor creates no value for the world um no i think what he does as a philanthropist i think he creates a lot of value um but uh so i think buffett has the benefit of i mean i think heinz will be a much better business by the time you know as a result of buffett's ownership you look at what he did with geico since he bought it i think he's been he's created enormous he's bought businesses well but not incredibly well as he's gotten to be quite large but he's made those businesses much more valuable and i think he's also created a lot of messaging that's affected the way people think about executive compensation and derivatives um so i think he's made an enormous contribution so i think it's a combination of long-term you know kind of longitudinally you know and the um and the accomplishments he's had so i think he's the best by far the best mistake number four not investing in moods we look for very high quality businesses what we describe as simple predictable free cash flow generative dominant businesses a business that warren buffett would describe as having a moat around it right if you if you believe that the value of anything financial is the present value the cash you can take out of it over its life we need to know what how much cash is going to generate over its life so the business quality to us is the single most important uh criterion for determining what's interesting because if we can't predict the cash flows we don't know what's worth we don't know what's worth we can't invest so we figure out what it's worth figure out how good the business is how predictable will this cash flows be from a railroad or a spirits company or a real estate company shopping mall business and then we say uh okay well where's the trading um and if there's a wide gap between price and value uh you can buy 50 cents it's worth a dollar 20.
well then we're gonna take a hard look and try to understand why it trades at a deep discount and uh once we understand the reasons we decide well these things that we can solve you know can we in light of the situation uh the circumstances can we be influential in changing these these levers that can cause this valuation discrepancy to narrow and is this a business that while we're causing the valuation discrepancy to narrow we can also perhaps contribute to the valuation growing uh those things are true we found something that looks quite interesting for us mistake number five too much diversification tell us a little about your portfolio why so few names um you know obviously there has been some rumors of the performance up six percent uh for the first quarter i know you can't say that's accurate or not accurate with most of your portfolio up double digits uh one downs to double digits which we'll talk about but give us uh just a take on why so few names and so for a bunch of reasons i mean i've always had the view that uh you know why why not own the best 10 or 11 investments as opposed to ideas 12 through 25 or 12 through 100 which is more typical and uh you know i think there are very few great investments at any one time so the ability to concentrate is an enormously valuable asset of a strategy the problem with it is most uh it leads to bumpier returns and it leads to uh more attention on on mistakes or things that aren't going well you know i don't know a portfolio manager that doesn't have a stock that's down in his portfolio right but you don't read articles about uh when we're getting an awful lot of attention for a pretty high profile situation that's uh that's struggling um but i think there's uh it depends on what your business model is but if you want to make high rates return over a long period of time it's hard to do that being very diversified i mean if you look through the 400 wealthiest people in the world most of them made their fortune in one business or a portfolio of two businesses very few made it in a portfolio of 100 so it's it's that the other benefit allows you to run a much simpler uh investment firm we have an eight person investment team uh if we had 30 names we couldn't manage that portfolio the way we do with the small team buying a small team you can hire better talent number six not learning more if you're going to be successful in your career you're going to make some money and how you invest that money can make a big difference in the quality of life that you have and perhaps that your children have or the kind of house you're able to buy or the retirement that you're gonna be able to enjoy and we talked about the difference between a 10 return and a 15 and a 20 return over a very long lifetime what impact that has in terms of how much wealth you create over the period so investing is going to be important to you whether you like it or not and learning more about investing is going to have a big impact on your your your quality of life if money is something that you need in order to meet some of your goals i got interested when i was probably 22 or 23 i started interested in being an investor and i read a book i read a book called the intelligent investor it's written by ben graham and ben graham is a famous value investor and it's kind of like reading jean-paul sartre's essays and existentialism you read it and it either is an epiphany and it affects the way you live your life or it's of no interest to you and this was the equivalent but in investing i found it fascinating and uh what i liked about investing is something very accessible even to someone who's 22 or 23.
what's kept me intrigued is that one of it's one of the few jobs where every day you can study something new you're constantly learning about new businesses new situations new management teams new issues so it's infinitely challenging and the world and stock market are obviously very dynamic places so the challenges continue these same concepts while they're useful in deciding how to invest your portfolio they're also very useful to you in thinking about decisions like buying a home making decisions in your line of work whether to hire additional people this these kinds of calculations and thought processes are helpful and they're helpful in life i recommend that you learn more mistake number seven failure to understand the business i think the best thing if the investing business you can learn by reading you know read everything warren buffett's ever written watch every youtube video he's ever appeared in that's a great way to learn about investing but investing is more than just the way to really understand investing is to understand a business and one of the most important skills you need as an investor is just distinguishing between a great business a good business a fair business and a bad business and one way to get a sense of the quality of a business is going to work for one so the recommendation i give to people graduating from business schools these days is this is the greatest time in history to work for a startup and lots of incredibly interesting businesses being formed if you can be one of the early employees you're going to learn a lot about how a business works how to make payroll how to market your product how to design something and those skills i think are invaluable first of all you might even find it really interesting you might have joined the next facebook so that's one thing even if a business fails you'll learn a ton from that i think that's the best experience you can get ultimately to be a good fundamental investor in terms of the future of fundamental investing i don't think everyone can be a passive investor i don't think everyone can be a quantitative trader and i think there'll be always room for fundamental value investing because fundamentally stocks are driven and business value is driven by business fundamentals not supply and demand for securities in the short term not the weather on certain days and these various signals that are used by quantitative traders not saying there's anything wrong with it but i don't think that even quantitative trading works unless there are a lot of people making fundamental investments these investing mistakes are what you need to look out for before considering any investments in order to ensure long-term wealth as bill ackman said you should learn more if you're ready to apply that principle check out some of ron buffett's investing mistakes until next time take care
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