Cathie Wood Answer To Whether We Are In An AI Bubble

요약 보기

AI 버블 우려에 대해 닷컴 버블과 달리 기술 인프라와 AI 기반이 수십 년간 준비되어 왔다고 주장. MIT 논문의 기업 생산성 부진 지적은 인정하되, 기업 전환에 시간이 걸릴 뿐 소비자 측은 활발하다고 봄. 팔란티어 미국 상업 매출 전분기 123% 증가를 근거로 제시. 생산성 개선은 1년 내 가시화되고 실질 GDP 성장률은 장기적으로 7~8%까지 가속될 것이라 전망.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Um, I love this question. Um, and the reason I love it is many people are worried about that that uh that risk out there. And, uh, this in comparison to what was going on in the tech and telecom bubble is night and day. In the tech and telecom bubble, sure you had some value investors saying this doesn't make sense.

02. Uh no one was listening to them and you had growth investors uh just throwing money at the dream at the dream back then. The seeds that were planted in the 20 years that ended in the tech and telecom bubble uh have been germinating for the last 25 to 30 years. Uh back then the technologies were not ready.

03. the costs were way too high. We didn't get the cloud until 2006. We didn't get the first real breakthrough in AI until 2012, deep learning. And then the even bigger breakthrough uh um in uh 2017 that was transformer architecture. And of course we had the chat GBT moment uh uh as uh in late 22. uh we think the this AI story has just begun.

04. We are in the first inning and uh the only thing that I will flag as a nuance and uh is is related to an MIT uh research paper that came out on this topic a few months ago uh basically saying corporations aren't seeing any productivity gains because of uh AI. This this is completely elusive. It's uh it is a bubble and the the only nuance here is for enterprises to trans restructure and transform completely which they will have to do in this new age um is hard work and it will take time uh uh and and yet uh on the consumer side it is flourishing.

05. So I think that bifurcation is something uh that that we think about a lot. Uh but if palunteer is any indication and we think it is you have uh CEOs and and and strategic decision makers saying we've got to do this or we're going to lose our competitive edge out there. And that's why US commercial business was up 123% last quarter.

06. far surpassing anyone's expectations including our own. There is a strategic imperative now and it will take time. It will take time to play out in terms of those productivity measures. Uh individuals are seeing big increases in productivity with these tools that will percolate into some of the productivity measures.

07. But we think the real productivity gains uh the needle moving uh it will start within the next year. Um and already we're still at two and a half percent. So that's the starting point. Uh so we're pretty excited about the implications uh for productivity and real GDP growth which we think is going to accelerate to levels people cannot uh uh imagine.

08. Now, you know, longer term, we're seeing that growth, real GDP growth globally accelerate into the 7 to 8% range because we're in a technology revolution. The last time we were in a technology revolution, growth accelerated globally, real GDP growth from 0.6% 6% during the 400 years and Brett did this work uh 400 years uh ended in 1900.

09. For the last uh 125 years we've been at 3%. So that was a five-fold increase in the growth rate and here we are saying 7 to 8%. To us that's conservative given the kind of technology revolution uh we're in. We've never seen anything like it.